There is no doubt about it. He will have to contend with a fresh round of challenges that will test his political skills.
The civil-military relationship remains problematic. There are three major dimensions in this. First, the military wants a free hand to deal with Afghanistan, India and America. It wants Mr Sharif to keep signing on the dotted line on each item. So far, he hasn’t objected. But he is keener than the military to smoke the peace pipe with India. He believes that his agenda for economic growth and peoples’ welfare cannot be obtained without a peace dividend from India. On several occasions he has tripped over in his rush to offer the hand of “friendship” to Narendra Modi, only to be rebuked discreetly by the brass. Now his “friendship” with Indian steel magnate Sajjan Jindal is raising eyebrows in Rawalpindi and provoking the generals to grumble about “personal business interests” interfering with the “national interest”. Mr Sharif must make sure that in courting Mr Modi he is not too far out of step with GHQ unless he can demonstrate diplomatic success.
Second, the military also wants a free hand in dealing with terrorism. It is openly critical of the PMLN government’s inability or unwillingness to deliver on the political and economic dimensions of the National Action Plan. These include madrassah reforms and regulation; identifying and freezing sources of terrorist funding; beefing up investigation, prosecution, and judge/witness protection programs; FATA reforms; IDP rehabilitation; and so on. In Sindh, the military wants to include “criminal mafias” in its definition of terrorists, meaning politicians who aid, abet, harbour, protect or fund terrorists. This has seriously unnerved the PPP Sindh government and pitted it against the military and the federal government that is siding with it. In consequence, Mr Asif Zardari is cooling his heels in self-exile while his buddy Dr Asim Hussain is in the clink. If this issue is not resolved to the satisfaction of both the military and the PPP, the major loser will be Nawaz Sharif. He can’t afford to antagonise the military and he can’t afford to alienate the PPP and push it in the corner of the MQM and PTI. That would block legislation in the Senate and create an unmanageable and continuous ruckus in the National Assembly. It could even lead to a boycott of parliament by all three at some stage and make the PMLN vulnerable to the infection of conspiracy theories all over again.
Third, the military also wants to deal directly with the Afghan and American governments on how to help stabilise Afghanistan without enabling India to gain a firmer foothold in Kabul. It has finally come round to the idea of a “regional approach” to Afghanistan. This includes Pakistan, Afghanistan, China and America but not India. Presumably, Washington and Kabul will try and look after Indian interests. But this will not appease India and it may continue to muddy the waters. With the Taliban and Al-Qaeda resurging in Afghanistan, ISIS hovering in the wings and the Afghan government riven by squabbling over power sharing that is undermining its ability to fight the Taliban, the outlook for the “quadrilateral conference” is not bright. Without stabilising Afghanistan by degrading the Taliban and Al Qaeda, Pakistan will remain a target of terrorism, eroding prospects for stability and economic growth.
Mr Sharif thinks his major civilian challenge is to provide electricity to the people and energy to industry. True, but the critical factor here is the cost of this power. As things stand, even with zero power cuts by 2017, industry won’t be able to afford the high cost of power; it will lose its competitiveness in international markets and will have to cut down on production and jobs. But Mr Sharif needs to create jobs for 3 million youngsters every year. Without a radical reform of the tax structure and reprioritizing economic policy, which Mr Sharif is loath to undertake, there are no solutions.
Therefore, no “breakthroughs” are forecast on the economic and foreign policy fronts. More “muddling along” is the recipe for 2016. But another Model Town incident or breakdown in Sindh or repeat of Mumbai across the LoC could shake up the PMLN regime.