A politically stable and democratic Pakistan is in the interest of South Asia, particularly India.
In 2024, widely dubbed as the "year of elections," citizens across approximately 50 nations are exercising their right to choose their representatives. Prominent among these are parliamentary elections in key countries, including the United States of America, India, Bangladesh, Mexico, South Africa, Pakistan, Indonesia, Russia, Iran, and the European Union.
The electoral year kicked off in Bangladesh on January 9, while general elections concluded in Pakistan on February 8. According to official results of Pakistan's Election Commission, none of the political parties managed to secure the necessary simple majority in the National Assembly. Consequently, a hung parliament has emerged, with the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) backed independent candidates securing 92 seats, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) securing 84, the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) earning 54, the Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan (MQM-P) with 17, and various other religious and national parties contributing to the complex political landscape.
In the Westminster form of parliamentary democracy, a political party or coalition comprising various parties must demonstrate its presence in the House. The critical threshold for this in Pakistan is 169 seats — which signifies that if a party or coalition secures 134 members outright, it is entitled to an additional 35 reserved seats for women and minorities, completing the required number.
Following negotiations between political parties to navigate the challenges posed by a mixed or split mandate from the Pakistani electorate, an agreement was reached between the PML-N, the PPP, the MQM, and some smaller parties. According to Pakistani media, PML-N President Shehbaz Shahbaz Sharif is set to become Prime Minister for a second consecutive term. The Pakistan Peoples Party, while offering a vote of confidence to Shehbaz, will refrain from joining the cabinet. Consequently, a minority federal government is on the verge of formation.
A government lacking a simple majority and reliant on support from other parties external to its structure is commonly termed a 'minority government.' Despite the inherent challenges, a minority government is often considered stable and can effectively govern, albeit with the need for ongoing cooperation and understanding among the involved parties.
The coalition, comprised of divergent ideological factions, exhibited inherent instability. Its lack of cohesive ideology beyond opposition to the Congress party rendered it fragile, ultimately leading to the brief tenure of Morarji Desai.
India has experienced such a situation multiple times, but the political parties learned from it over time. The political forces in Pakistan need to follow a similar path.
India's political landscape has traversed through various phases since its independence in 1947. Renowned political expert Rajni Kothari aptly termed the period from independence to 1977 as the 'Congress system,' marked by the dominance of the Indian National Congress across the nation. However, subsequent years witnessed a shift in power dynamics, leading to political instability and the emergence of coalition politics.
The Congress system, characterised by the unparalleled dominance of the Indian National Congress, prevailed from independence until the Emergency of 1975-1977. During this period, the Congress wielded significant influence over national politics, securing consecutive electoral victories and forming stable governments. However, the post-emergency era marked a turning point as the Congress's stronghold began to diminish, paving the way for fragmented mandates and political instability.
The late 1970s, 1988 to 1991, and 1995-1999, witnessed a tumultuous period in Indian politics, characterised by fragmented mandates and coalition governments. The emergence of non-congress political forces, such as the Janata Party, posed a formidable challenge to the Congress's supremacy after the Emergency.
In 1977, the Congress party, under the leadership of Indira Gandhi, faced a significant setback during the post-Emergency sixth Lok Sabha elections. Contrary to Congress' (Indira) 154 seats, a triumvirate alliance known as the Jan Sangh clinched victory with 295 seats. This triumph marked the historic elevation of Morarji Desai as the first non-Congress prime minister. Nevertheless, Desai's term was short-lived, lasting only two years, owing to internal discord and conflicting interests within the coalition.
The coalition, comprised of divergent ideological factions, exhibited inherent instability. Its lack of cohesive ideology beyond opposition to the Congress party rendered it fragile, ultimately leading to the brief tenure of Morarji Desai. After Desai's resignation, Charan Singh assumed the role of prime minister, forming a minority government for the first time. Despite seeking support from the Congress, which was declined, Singh resigned before demonstrating a vote of confidence in the Lok Sabha.
Again, between 1988 and 1990, India endured a period of unsuccessful coalition governance and political upheaval. During this time, the country witnessed two prime ministers within two and a half years. Following the elections in 1995, hung parliaments and shifting alliances resulted in minority rule, where successive prime ministers struggled to maintain support and enact effective governance. Between 1995 and 1998, we had three short-lived governments led by Atal Vajpayee, HD Deve Gowda, and Inder Kumar Gujral.
Amidst political turmoil, the late 1990s witnessed the emergence of strategic alliances to consolidate power and ensure stability. The formation of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA.) by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and like-minded parties marked a significant shift towards coalition politics. The NDA's ascendancy to power under Atal Bihari Vajpayee heralded a new era of political unity, albeit with occasional challenges such as the government's collapse due to a vote of no-confidence. The government led by Vajpayee after the 1999 elections was the first non-congress government to complete its tenure.
The necessity of coalition politics in a diverse and fragmented electoral landscape cannot be overstated. Building alliances and forging consensus are essential for effective governance and political stability
The Congress and allied parties formed the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) in 2004 to counterbalance the NDA. The UPA government, led by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, exemplified coalition politics in shaping national agendas and prioritising inclusive growth. The alternating power dynamics between the NDA and UPA underscored the fluidity of Indian politics and the importance of strategic alliances in securing an electoral split. Despite ideological differences, the alliances provided governance and implemented vital reforms. During the UPA, the right to information and the 'right to work' law, Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act, 2005 (MGNREGA) are noteworthy.
The Indian political experience of evolving from the Congress system to coalition governance offers several lessons for Pakistani political parties grappling with similar challenges and aspirations. The necessity of coalition politics in a diverse and fragmented electoral landscape cannot be overstated. Building alliances and forging consensus are essential for effective governance and political stability.
By embracing the lessons of coalition politics, prioritising inclusive governance, and fostering strategic alliances, Pakistani political parties can navigate the complexities of their electoral landscape and realise the aspirations of their populace.
A few months ago, the Union Progressive Alliance changed its name to I.N.D.I.A. Presently, despite the BJP holding a simple majority, the government operates under the umbrella of the NDA, which encompasses various coalition partners.
Pakistani political parties must go for such alliances to ensure a stable government amid a split mandate. This strategic collaboration not only diminishes the establishment's interference but also fosters increased inter-party engagement, reducing opportunities for external political manipulation.