Forty-five civilians, as per the ISPR, and 49, according to defense ministry, lost their lives as the civilian population living along the LoC was targeted this year. Almost a similar number lost their lives last year.
There have been up to 1,300 violations by India this year, although the defense ministry and ISPR figures again slightly vary on this count. But, definitely it is a significant increase; over the past four years they averaged 336 per year from 2013 to 2016. The violations, which once used to be a summer affair, now last throughout the year.
Indian shelling isn’t random either and military analysts say it is done after thorough target selection. Surveillance drones, one of which was shot down earlier this week by Pakistani troops, have been introduced by the Indian Army in recent years to help pick targets.
These ceasefire violations, therefore, need to be seen beyond the narrow lens of a military conflict by factoring in the human dimension, because they affect the lives of ordinary citizens as they lose their loved ones, their lives are disrupted, and they incur heavy economic losses. Many are injured as well.
The Foreign Office fears that this “unprecedented escalation” could lead “to a strategic miscalculation” between the two nuclear armed neighbours, which could entail a catastrophic outcome not just for the two countries, but for the South Asian region. The FO would not like to say so, but the escalation heightens nuclear dangers.
It was once claimed that Indians fired to pre-empt infiltration across the LoC. And another lobby believed in the spoiler theory that the provocations were meant to disrupt progress towards normalization. However, none of the explanations seem to fit into the current trend and pattern.
Meanwhile, there have been different explanations for this sharp spike in violations of the ceasefire agreement reached between the two countries in 2003 and which remained largely intact for nearly a decade. The most commonly cited reason is that India has increased the frequency of the shelling to distract the world’s attention from its brutal repression of the uprising in the Kashmir Valley.
But, a more plausible explainer was shared with the Senate Defense Committee by the defense ministry, according to which Indian shelling of civilian population is intended to compel the people living in the region to vacate it. Defense Secretary Lt Gen (retired) Zamir-ul-Hassan Shah told the Senate panel that India wants to create an unpopulated zone or a buffer astride the LoC.
The defense secretary’s assertion has been virtually confirmed by the Indian military. Effectively justifying its attacks on civilian population, Indian Army claimed that the Pakistan Army had employed the civilians at its forward posts and allowed the civilians to live around their posts.
Indians worry, again to quote the Indian Army’s Additional Directorate General of Public Information, is that the civilians living near the LoC help Pakistan Army gather information about its (Indian) positions and also serve as a guide for the ‘infiltrators’. This leaves little doubt about the Indian intentions behind the shelling of populated areas.
India, therefore, cannot be expected to stop pounding the civilian neighbourhoods any time in the near future unless there is progress on the diplomatic front. Conversely, heightened tensions because of intensified ceasefire violations reduce the space for normalization. It is hence a vicious cycle and governments on both side need to think out of the box to stop hostilities at the LoC.
Merely summoning diplomats and asking India to respect the ceasefire arrangement may not be enough. There should be serious thinking. One way is to explore the possibility of both sides recommitting to the 2003 understanding and formalizing it by introducing built-in mechanisms for dealing with the LoC.
What both sides need to worry is that such a high frequency of violations cannot be left unattended because the situation can escalate to a major crisis.
The writer is a freelance journalist based in Islamabad and can be reached at mamoonarubab@gmail.com and @bokhari_mr