Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi made his visit to Moscow in July 2024, his first since Russia invaded Ukraine. CNN reported this visit with the following words: “Trade between the two countries was worth nearly $65 billion in 2023-24, primarily due to strong energy cooperation, but most of that total flowed toward Russia, Jaiswal said. Reducing the trade imbalance would be a ‘matter of priority’ in Modi’s discussions with Putin, he added.”
This signifies that Indian money from the purchase of Russian oil funds the war in Ukraine; India has also further increased its dependency on Russian weaponry, which already constitutes about 80% of India’s total arms. According to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Russia supplied 65% of India's weapons purchases of more than $60 billion during the last two decades. On the other hand, the USA has the third-largest FDI investment in India, amounting to $65.19 billion from April 2000 to March 2024, in addition to an estimated $118.28 billion trade in the year 2023-24. Hence, Indian interests are split between the two rival powers in terms of military cooperation and economic development.
On another front, India has made substantial investments in Iran’s Chabahar port. India signed a deal with Iran for this project in May this year. On the other hand, Indian merchandise exports to Israel are valued at $8.45 billion, while Israeli merchandise exports to India stand at $2.32 billion. In FY 2023-24 (April-October), bilateral trade stood at $4.42 billion (excluding defence), as per the Indian Embassy’s website in Tel Aviv. To remind ourselves, during the Cold War era, Palestinian leader Yasir Arafat had close ties with Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, and India recognised Israel in 1992. Since then, India has managed to maintain close relations with both rival nations.
However, circumstances have changed following February 2022 and October 2023 – the Russian invasion of Ukraine and Hamas attacks on Israel.
Maintaining balanced relations with two rival nations in times of peace is one thing; doing so during a fiery conflict is another. A demonstration of this was a top US official’s retort to PM Modi’s recent visit to Russia, where he was accorded a warm welcome by the Russian President Vladimir Putin. Al Jazeera reports, “The US National Security adviser cautioned that strong ties with Russia were a ‘bad bet’ for India. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said the US was concerned about India’s relations with Russia. Eric Garcetti, the US ambassador to India, warned New Delhi that it could not take its friendship with Washington ‘for granted’.
Top US military experts and think tanks have expressed views on various forums about the possibility of Ukraine losing the war. John Mearsheimer said unequivocally that it is quite likely that Russian forces will take control of Ukraine, and might then eye the rest of Eastern Europe.
The Indian Ministry of External Affairs, according to The Hindu newspaper, asserted India’s “freedom of choice” in foreign relations. The government reacted sharply on July 25 to a U.S. official who told the U.S. Congress that Washington was “disappointed” about the “symbolism and timing” of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Moscow.”
“Freedom of choice” – very well.
It seems as if the Indians are still living in the Cold War era, where they abstained from becoming part of bloc politics, as members of the Non-Aligned Movement. Gone are the days when you could afford to stay neutral. In today’s geopolitics, when the world is inching towards a potentially wider conflict, you will have to take sides. You just can’t be neutral. Mark the word “disappointed” uttered by the US diplomat, Donald Lu. And Pentagon press secretary Major General Pat Ryder maintained that "We will continue to view India as a strategic partner.”
“Continue” – for how long? Until our patience is exhausted? And it can.
Top US military experts and think tanks have expressed views on various forums about the possibility of Ukraine losing the war. John Mearsheimer said unequivocally that it is quite likely that Russian forces will take control of Ukraine, and might then eye the rest of Eastern Europe. The Americans made bad bets by first asking Ukraine to return the nuclear weapons back to Moscow in 1991, and then inviting Ukraine to join NATO.
And now, while more than half of Ukrainian troops have been eliminated during the war, and the remaining are unwilling to fight, India wants to foster economic and military ties with Russia and imagine a free foreign policy vis-a-vis the USA notwithstanding their stakes in Ukraine? The Ukrainian President, Zelensky wrote on X, “37 people were killed, three of whom were children, and 170 were injured, including 13 children, as a result of Russia’s brutal missile strike in Ukraine today. A Russian missile struck the largest children's hospital in Ukraine, targeting young cancer patients. Many were buried under the rubble. It is a huge disappointment and a devastating blow to peace efforts to see the leader of the world's largest democracy hug the world's most bloody criminal in Moscow on such a day.”
So, the pressure came from the US – India’s strategic partner in South Asia – and Modi took the flight to Kiev right after his warm hug and delicious dinner with Putin. How must Putin have felt on this turn of events? And how must he have felt during his joint press conference with Modi, where he spoke in fine Hindi and advised Putin on promoting peace in the region – really? Putin’s face on this occasion tells the tale.
The US had to tolerate it until the situation in Ukraine became increasingly volatile, and the Israel-Hamas-Iran conflict added to the burden on the US further.
Clearly, the External Affairs Minister of India, S. Jaishankar, got carried away in imagining the world and India’s place in it.
Two things have probably contributed towards this crisis in Indian foreign policy. Firstly, the US-India Strategic Partnership Forum (USISPF) was formed in 2017 – five years before the Russia-Ukraine war. This partnership was aimed at curtailing China and its ambitions in the Pacific Ocean, South Asia, and the Middle East region via CPEC that mainly involved Pakistan. This coming together of India and the US also boosted foreign direct investment in the Indian economy, which multiplied after the US and Western European countries imposed sanctions on Russia after the war started in February 2022 – India benefitted from the war by buying Russian oil at a cheap price and selling it in the black market.
India had the cake and ate it too.
The US had to tolerate it until the situation in Ukraine became increasingly volatile, and the Israel-Hamas-Iran conflict added to the burden on the US further. We started hearing US concerns about it right after the Gaza situation in October of last year. But these anxieties were voiced in an undertone until now. But, hey! You just can’t go to Moscow and party with Putin while Ukraine is burning. No. That’s not happening.
Now the Middle East stands at the brink of an all-out war between Iran and Israel, after Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in a Tehran strike on August 1, 2024. Iran has vowed revenge on Israel, although Israel has not publicly claimed responsibility. It is almost certain that an Iranian response will come. When and where? How will Israel and the US respond to that? All that remains to be seen. While Israel continues to pound Gaza, where 15,000 children have died, some prominent Indians have urged the Indian government to stop supplying arms to Israel. So the Indian public opinion is yet another avenue, as the situation develops – India has long celebrated its relationship with both Iran and Israel.
After Indian foreign policymakers faced a stern response from the US following Modi’s visit to Russia, and even a kind of embarrassment when he was compelled to visit Kiev, it remains to be seen how “free and independent” their policy will truly be when it comes to choosing sides between Iran and Israel, and more intriguingly, between Russia and the US itself.
They say countries have interests, not friendships. No. Superpowers have interests, other countries have to choose which side they can afford to stand on.
The darkest places in hell are reserved for those who maintain their neutrality in times of moral crisis. -- Dante Alighieri