The general elections for 2024 are scheduled for February 8 in Pakistan, carrying a staggering cost of forty-five billion rupees, and will unfold against the backdrop of a severe economic downturn and heightened polarization.
As 127 million predominantly youthful voters grapple with unemployment and inflation, they find themselves immersed in a political landscape characterized by poorly articulated manifestos and boisterous speeches from the leadership of dynastic parties. These parties primarily focus their rhetoric on criticizing their predecessor, the Imran Khan-led Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI), to which the youth feel attached. The PTI was ousted two years prior through a vote of no confidence, with efforts made to keep the party paralyzed and unable to actively participate in the electoral race.
Amid this milieu, a discernible pattern emerges, suggesting that these elections are more of a formality, strategically orchestrated to sideline the PTI from the electoral race. The emphasis on negative campaigning and the dearth of substantive policy discourse contribute to the perception that the primary goal is to keep the PTI out of contention, rather than fostering a constructive democratic process. The palpable disenchantment among voters, particularly the youth, is evident as they navigate through a political landscape dominated by partisan noise and the absence of substantive electoral discourse.
The dynastic parties aligned with ethno-sectarian parties, ascended to power two years ago by employing a constitutional but dubious method to overthrow the PTI government led by cricketer turned politician Imran Khan. These dynasts not only influenced the nomination of the caretaker government's cabinet after completing their parliamentary tenure but also strategically placed their cronies in key institutions, consolidating their influence.
Moreover, these dynastic parties executed calculated maneuvers to sideline the popular party from the electoral arena. This included implicating its central leadership in serious crimes, such as the theft of national assets and assaults on national monuments and symbols. Notably, these allegations stemmed from the May 9 riots that erupted after the controversial arrest of the PTI chairman, a move later declared illegal by the court.
Calls from the PTI, which withdrew from Parliament and later dissolved governments in two provinces, for fresh polls only served to reinforce the authoritarian grip of dynasts. Stringent measures were taken to silence dissent while the coalition government ruled and later dissolved assemblies upon the conclusion of their tenures for fresh elections.
The elections encountered a three-month delay as the caretaker government awaited the resolution of cases framed against the central leadership of the PTI, contributing to the disintegration of the party.
The emphasis on negative campaigning and the dearth of substantive policy discourse contribute to the perception that the primary goal is to keep the PTI out of contention, rather than fostering a constructive democratic process.
As the electoral stage is set, the former ruling party is conspicuously absent from major seat contention. Khan and his wife, Bushra Bibi, have been sentenced to 14 years in jail for illegally selling state gifts. He has also been given another 10-year prison term for leaking state secrets and seven years in an illegal marriage case. The party is effectively out of electoral race as it has been stripped of its electoral symbol, and its organizational structure has crumbled.
The dynastic duo, the PPP and the PML-N, which has been in power in Pakistan since the 1990s, bears significant responsibility for limiting the benefits of the economic liberalization drive to the wealthy, while paralyzing regulatory mechanisms meant to protect the downtrodden from the excesses of business interests. This stands in contrast to the practice of privatizing essential services such as health and education but shifting the burden of economic downturn onto the masses.
The dynasts have also acted as a stumbling block to the devolution of power to grassroots levels, denying constitutionally mandated local governments the administrative, political, and fiscal powers required for a fair distribution of resources across the country and, hence, laying the foundation for sustainable growth. Instead, they confined the devolution process to the provinces, leaving power and resources at the discretion of chief ministers, while the third tier of government was paralyzed.
Quite understandably, the upcoming elections are not expected to narrow the democratic deficit or provide the political stability needed to revive the economy.
The PTI, emerging on the political horizon after the general elections of 2013, was welcomed in the deprived regions of the country and likely aimed to address the anomalies of economic reformation and the devolution drive. However, during its brief tenure of three and a half years, it largely failed to execute its agenda amidst the coronavirus pandemic and a lack of strength in Parliament to reform laws. The dynasts declared the rise of the PTI as illegitimate from day one, and their strategy of protesting and legislative boycott culminated in the overthrow of the PTI government through a no-confidence motion in 2022.
Although the move to remove PTI by the dynasts was accompanied by promises to tackle inflation and narrow down the fiscal deficit, the economic situation has deteriorated with each passing month. The solution to low growth, and consequently, a dwindling balance of payment and currency depreciation, has been sought through IMF loans. The stringent conditions attached to the loans have only withdrawn subsidies on necessities like food and petroleum products, eroding the purchasing power of the inflation-battered population.
A transparent, inclusive, and democratic electoral process remains crucial for the political stability and economic development of Pakistan, factors seemingly overlooked in the current political climate. Quite understandably, the upcoming elections are not expected to narrow the democratic deficit or provide the political stability needed to revive the economy. While dynastic parties dominate the electoral race, their promises to the electorate lack a clear plan to overcome the yawning fiscal deficit and expand fiscal space.
"I anticipate another election in 2024, driven by agitation and the looming threat of violence in the post-election scenario," warns Sarwar Bari, an election analyst at the helm of Pattan/Coalition38. His prediction is grounded in the extensive years he has devoted to monitoring and observing electoral processes in Pakistan, emphasizing that transparency and fairness have consistently been lacking in these elections.