Modi Will Return As PM, But Without A Majority

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With results for India's election in, it is now clear that the BJP has not won enough seats on its own to secure a majority. Even though the NDA alliance has the seats to form a government and Modi will be Prime Minister again, the BJP's mandate has shrunken.

2024-06-04T21:58:00+05:00 Mohammed Anas

Even though Modi’s BJP-led NDA alliance has emerged victorious, the Congress-led INDIA bloc is rejoicing. The BJP camp actually bore a somber look, as exultation exuded from Congress cadres. The reason were the numbers: the BJP-led NDA had won or was leading on 290 seats, while the INDIA bloc had won or was leading on 240 seats, with former losing 63+ seats and latter gaining 130+ seats as compared to their last election scores. 

Till the time of filing this report, the BJP’s tally was around 240 seats, well below the 272-majority mark in a House with 543 seats. It means that this will only be a coalition government, and that any governance program will have to take into account the sanction of coalition partners.

However, the BJP-led government will be the first Indian government since 1991 which will return to power after completing two terms. Modi’s victory margin plummeted around 70%. He was trailing for a few hours of counting behind Congress’ UP chief Ajay Rai.

Tuesday’s results also disproved the exit poll projections that almost gave the BJP 400 seats that the party was ambitiously seeking under the leadership of PM Modi. The results will be seen as a verdict on his imposing image.

Setbacks aside, Modi will nevertheless be set for a historic third term as PM. He will be the only second Indian PM after the legendary first PM Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru to do so.

By early evening, PM Modi headed to BJP headquarters to address supporters in uncharacteristically subdued drum-beating. And that too after meeting his NDA allies that, according to a senior political analyst, have already demanded cabinet berths in exchange for “ensuring” his third term.

The BJP-led government will be the first Indian government since 1991 which will return to power after completing two terms. 

A depleted number of parliamentary seats is not the only reversal that the BJP has suffered; it has faced a sound drubbing in the Hindi heartland – the nursery of the party’s support and laboratory of its hardline ideology. 

In a significant omen, the BJP lost Faizabad, where the city of Ayodhya lies, despite building the grand Ram Temple here only in January.

Many of its bigwig leaders, including ministers, have also lost. Rajeev Chandrashekhar, IT Minister, lost to Congress’ popular leader Shashi Tharoor. Smiriti Irani, a close confidante of PM Modi, and a popular senior minister, lost to Kishri Lal Sharma, a Gandhi family aide.

In additional reflection on the public mood against the incumbent BJP government, Engineer Rashid Shaikh, jailed for fomenting separatist activities in Jammu and Kashmir, and Amritpal Singh, jailed for whipping up Khalistani sentiments, won their respective seats as independents from behind bars.

Why did support for the BJP dim?

In a speech after the election result, PM Modi lauded democracy in the country and thanked every cog of the machinery in holding such a mammoth exercise. He even urged influencers to take note of the strength of democracy in the country. Delivering powerful speeches and his indefatigability is unmatched in India’s political space.

His speech was no cover for a number of issues that plagued his party and built-up anger against his party MPs. Issues like inflation, unemployment, farm stress, insecurity among minorities and Dalits, social injustice, perceived threats to the Constitution, reverberated sharply during the election.

India, like many developing countries, is facing the problem of ever-rising inflation. Inflation was a common concern expressed by voters across many social groups. Following the Covid pandemic, the bite of inflation had been softened by the center’s pandemic-era food ration scheme, which gave an extra 5 kilogram of free foodgrain to poor families, on top of the existing 5 kilogram entitlement. Eligible families also received a kilo of chana dal and a liter of oil. The enhanced rations ended last year. With food inflation high, voters said they felt the pinch.

The paucity of jobs was a common refrain. Even supporters of the BJP cited this as the main reason for dissatisfaction with the party. A few months ago, the paper for the Uttar Pradesh police recruitment exam leaked. Hundreds of thousands of applicants who had invested both time and money preparing for the exam were left stranded. This created a groundswell of anger among the educated youth.

A depleted number of parliamentary seats is not the only reversal that the BJP has suffered; it has faced a sound drubbing in the Hindi heartland – the nursery of the party’s support and laboratory of its hardline ideology. 

Among Dalits, fear had taken root that a BJP victory would put the Constitution in danger. This was triggered by the party’s slogan “Ab ki baar, 400 paar” – this time, we will cross 400 – and viral videos where party leaders were seen asking voters to elect the BJP with an overwhelming majority so that it could bring changes to the Constitution. “They want to replace Samvidhan (Constitution) with Manu ka vidhan (Manu’s laws),” said a young Dalit woman in Barabanki, a constituency reserved for Scheduled Caste candidates as quoted by the portal Scroll.in.

Muslim support, Kashmir surprise

Support of Muslims has been key in the turnaround of fortunes for the opposition parties. Around 23 Muslims had or were heading towards victory. These include cricketer Yusuf Pathan and Afzal Ansari, brother of late politician-outlaw Mukhtar Ansari. Popular politician Asaduddin Owaisi also sailed over his BJP rival Kumari Latha in Hyderabad.

Overall, Muslims helped decide the outcome on 90 parliamentary seats all across the country.

In states like UP, Bihar, Assam, Rajasthan, Gujarat, West Bengal, Kerala, Maharashtra and Karnataka, Muslims overwhelmingly voted for opposition parties, as was witnessed by field reporters. It is largely because of these votes that opposition parties like Congress, Samajwadi Party, Rashtriya Janata Dal and Trinamul Congress have made significant and hugely timely gains.

In UP, the most populous state of India with 80 parliamentary seats, Muslims make up 19% of the electorate. The Congress and SP – the two beneficiary parties – have piggybacked on Muslim votes to trounce the BJP.

In Jammu and Kashmir, locals pulled out surprises for mainstream-dynastic Kashmir politicians like Omar Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti. Omar was defeated by Engineer Rashid Shaikh, who has been in jail since 5 August 2019 when Article 370 was nullified. 

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