According to the security report issued by the Center for Research and Security Studies for the second quarter of 2024, terrorism remains a persistent threat. Nearly two-thirds of the victims were security personnel, civilians, and government officials, while militants and insurgents accounted for 38% of the total fatalities. Outlaws carried out 193 attacks against security personnel, civilians, and government officials, compared to only 45 security operations targeting them. This disparity underscores the outlaws' sense of strength, which may explain the TTP's unilateral announcement of a "ceasefire" during the Eid-ul-Adha celebrations. The report also recorded a 12% drop in overall incidents of violence during this period.
Beyond these fatal attacks, there were more than 65 incidents of sabotage targeting at least 27 army and police check posts, seven schools, over a dozen houses of political leaders and businessmen, several railway lines and gas pipelines, and about 18 cases of kidnappings for ransom. These incidents, combined with the violent attacks, illustrate the serious challenges faced by security forces in executing their counter-terror strategies.
On April 25, 2024, the Government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa proposed initiating negotiations with the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in response to rising violence and frequent terrorist attacks. Barrister Muhammad Ali Saif emphasized the need for peace dialogue with the TTP if they renounce terrorism and respect the Pakistani state and constitution.
To counter these threats, a stark division exists among the civil and military leadership on addressing terrorism, with multiple interests shaping their approaches. The ruling political parties advocate for a broad-based military operation against militancy, including targeting TTP hideouts within Afghan territories, while the opposition disagrees. In contrast, militants and insurgent groups are forming alliances and conducting attacks that reflect their unified strategy against their targets. A review of government policy versus the stances of the opposition and security officials is essential to understand the dilemma Pakistan faces in countering the growing threat of terrorism.
On April 25, 2024, the Government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa proposed initiating negotiations with the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in response to rising violence and frequent terrorist attacks. Barrister Muhammad Ali Saif emphasized the need for peace dialogue with the TTP if they renounce terrorism and respect the Pakistani state and constitution. He mentioned recent contacts with TTP members who have communicated their issues through him when dealing with the Pakistan army. In the past, Barrister Saif, as a Special Assistant to the KP Chief Minister, has been actively involved in holding talks with the TTP in the last quarter of 2022 and he claimed that the TTP "poses no threat." From 2021 to June 2024, Pakistan has lost over 4,000 persons in terror and counter-terror attacks, many claimed by the TTP, yet Barrister Saif's opinion remains unchanged.
Conversely, the Awami National Party (ANP) expressed concerns, with Senator Aimal Wali Khan warning of an imminent Taliban takeover in the Malakand region. He claimed that a large force in Afghanistan's Nuristan province was prepared to capture Malakand, that the TTP controls southern Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and would soon extend north, and that the new K-P government would be a TTP and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) coalition. He accused political figures like Imran Khan and Barrister Saif of facilitating the return of terrorists to Pakistan from Afghanistan.
Meanwhile, on June 10, 2024, a grand jirga of various tribes in Bannu demanded comprehensive action against all armed outfits in the district to restore peace. They criticized the government and local administration for failing to maintain security, leading to frequent kidnappings and killings, eroding public confidence in the government’s ability to maintain order.
On June 14, 2024, security forces in Balochistan thwarted an attempt by the banned Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) to establish operational centers in the province. Acting on intelligence about a high-ranking TTP commander and other members planning to set up bases, the Counter-Terrorism Department (CTD), in coordination with other agencies, launched operations across Balochistan. These operations led to the arrest of several militants, including the top TTP commander, significantly disrupting the group's plans and preventing the creation of new militant bases. The long-term impact of this action remains to be seen in the coming days.
Facing the constant rise in violence by militants and insurgents, the government of Pakistan announced on June 22, 2024, the launch of 'Operation Azm-e-Istehkam' to eradicate terrorism.
On June 14, 2024, militants opened fire on a passenger coach near Dera Ismail Khan, injuring five people. The attackers had set up a checkpoint to identify government employees. This incident followed a similar one in May involving TTP operatives checking travelers' IDs. On June 16, a Deputy Superintendent of Police narrowly escaped an attack by motorcyclists in Dera Ismail Khan.
Facing the constant rise in violence by militants and insurgents, the government of Pakistan announced on June 22, 2024, the launch of 'Operation Azm-e-Istehkam' to eradicate terrorism. While the Prime Minister and the Defence Minister upheld this operation as the only way to deal with the menace of terrorism, opposition parties like PTI, JUI-F, and ANP opposed it for various reasons.
Under the present circumstances, with militants and insurgents constantly targeting security personnel and expanding their areas of operation in Balochistan and KP, any attempt to seek a peaceful resolution of the conflict between the government and militants may be seen as a peace offer from a point of weakness and may not yield the desired results.
While the KP government seeks a peaceful resolution through dialogue, the ANP warns of an imminent Taliban takeover, worsening the security situation, yet ANP shows its unwillingness to support a military operation.
What will be the terms and conditions of a peaceful settlement between the government and the TTP? The KP government's expectation that peace negotiations with the TTP on the condition that they renounce terrorism and respect the Constitution is a naive approach. A peace negotiation with the TTP would recognize them as a legal entity deserving accommodation within the country without legal prosecution for their acts of terrorism. They have frequently asserted that their struggle is for the restoration of the former FATA regions and implementation of Sharia law in the country. With strong support from their ideological brethren in Afghanistan, the chances of the TTP agreeing to the terms proposed by Barrister Saif are highly unlikely.
On June 29, 2024, an Afghan press quoted Fazl-ur-Rehman, the leader of Pakistan’s Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam, as saying that within three to four months, the "Islamic Emirate" would rule over Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. He claimed the Taliban would take over areas including North and South Waziristan, Dera Ismail Khan, Lakki Marwat, and Bannu. In the National Assembly, he criticized 'Operation Azm-e-Istehkam,' arguing it would lead to instability and suggesting it was conducted to please China.
The differing views on dealing with the TTP underscore the complexity of the situation, with the political leadership highly polarized. While the KP government seeks a peaceful resolution through dialogue, the ANP warns of an imminent Taliban takeover, worsening the security situation, yet ANP shows its unwillingness to support a military operation.
In the last four years, civilians have been the most frequent victims of violence (1,380), followed by security officials (1,300), outlaws (1,260), and government officials (11). The challenge of how a highly polarized civil and military leadership can effectively counter the existential threat posed by outlawed militant and insurgent groups remains perplexing. Will the country's leadership only take a unified approach against militancy after another tragedy similar to the APS attack, where 134 innocent school children and their teachers were targeted? The silent majority of civilians hopes that the rulers will demonstrate their resolve and protect them from sacrificing their lives for a cause they never owned or chose.