New Delhi: In recent times, virtually every political party in India has included a dedicated section in its election manifesto, pledging to engage and attract female voters. Does this signal a significant shift in Indian society?
Traditionally, like in many South Asian societies, it was believed that women's electoral choices were heavily influenced by male family members, such as grandfathers, fathers, or husbands. Voting decisions were typically made by men within the family or local community leaders.
However, a noteworthy trend is emerging – an increasing number of women are actively participating in the electoral process. In the recently concluded elections in the state of Rajasthan, where women in rural areas often remain behind veils, the female voter turnout exceeded that of males, with 74.72 percent of women casting their votes compared to 74.53 percent of men.
Over the years, the percentage of women voters in Rajasthan has surged significantly, rising from 41 percent in 1962 to an impressive 74 percent in 2018. Similarly, in states like Madhya Pradesh, where only 29 percent of women voted in 1962, the number has surged to 78 percent in 2018. Chhattisgarh, which held its first assembly election in 2003, has seen women's participation increase from 67 percent to 76 percent.
What's even more remarkable is that in 2019, 54 percent of women voted independently, without male family members influencing their choices – a substantial increase from the 30 percent recorded in 2009.
It's not just the BJP; nearly every national and state political party now includes sections in their manifestos dedicated to women.
Experts attribute this shift to the influence of social media and awareness campaigns led by the Election Commission of India. These initiatives have empowered women to become more conscious of their voting rights, leading to increased female participation in elections.
Professor Sanjay Kumar of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) explains, "On social media platforms, elections are celebrated like festivals. Colourful pictures of people standing in queues with voter identity cards in their hands, waiting for their turn to vote, and then taking selfies with inked fingers after casting their votes have become socially desirable activities, leading to greater participation."
In the 2014 General Election, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi assumed office for the first time, only 29 percent of women voted for him, with the Congress Party remaining the preferred choice among women. Recognizing the potential of the female vote, the 2019 election manifesto of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) mentioned women 37 times in its 48 pages, addressing issues like divorce among Muslim women and equal rights.
It's not just the BJP; nearly every national and state political party now includes sections in their manifestos dedicated to women. These sections often cover schemes for child immunization, girl education, financial benefits for unmarried, elderly, and widowed women, as well as subsidized cooking gas. Political parties are increasingly targeting women of all age groups.
Data from the Lok Sabha indicates that with each successive election, the number of independent candidates winning elections has decreased significantly. From 42 independent candidates winning in 1959, only four entered the Lok Sabha as independents in recent time.
For instance, in the Madhya Pradesh assembly elections, where the Congress Party fiercely contested the incumbent BJP, promises were made to provide women with a monthly stipend of Rs 1,500 and cooking gas cylinders for Rs 500. The party also pledged to offer Rs 2.51 lakh to girls from birth until their marriage under the Meri Bitiya Rani Yojana.
However, while political parties seek women's votes, their representation in positions of power and law-making remains abysmally low. The current Lok Sabha, India's highest elected body, consists of only 78 women out of a total of 545 members, accounting for less than 15 percent of the total representation.
In India's predominantly male-dominated political system, women are courted as potential voters but not as potential candidates by political parties. Fewer women are fielded as candidates, and even fewer get elected. A research study conducted by Harvard University and the University of Mannheim, Germany, suggests that only affluent men with political connections and dynastic backgrounds are more likely to become candidates for major parties. The same pattern appears to apply to women, meaning that regardless of affluence and dynastic advantages, very few women occupy seats in India's parliamentary halls.
In the current elected house, out of 724 women candidates who contested, only 78 were successful. For aspiring women without a political legacy, it remains extremely challenging to gain a foothold in the political arena.
Data from the Lok Sabha indicates that with each successive election, the number of independent candidates winning elections has decreased significantly. From 42 independent candidates winning in 1959, only four entered the Lok Sabha as independents in recent time.
Paradoxically, despite women participating in large numbers, a study by CSDS suggests that women have a lower likelihood of winning an election when competing against male opponents. This indicates that female voters may not necessarily prefer female candidates and instead base their decisions on political party promises.
Professor Kumar notes, "An independent candidate here has a double disadvantage, as they lack the backing of any political group behind them."
"A new generation of female leadership is emerging at the local level. In states like Bihar, we see women getting elected from non-reserved seats as well, where women now make up to 54 percent of elected members, exceeding the reserved quota of 33 percent."
In September, the Parliament of India passed the Women Reservation Bill, reserving one-third of the total seats in the Parliament and state assemblies for women. For the BJP-led government, this bill represents another strategic move to garner female votes.
In 2009, the Indian Parliament amended the constitution to reserve one-third of seats for women in local bodies. Initially, women often contested as proxy candidates for positions that traditionally belonged to men in their households, who had long dominated panchayat politics.
However, Kumar observes a changing trend, even in villages. "A new generation of female leadership is emerging at the local level. In states like Bihar, we see women getting elected from non-reserved seats as well, where women now make up to 54 percent of elected members, exceeding the reserved quota of 33 percent."
Change takes time, and while transformations are evident at the grassroots level, it may take several election cycles before these trends become more pronounced at the provincial and national levels. The question remains: is it time for women, particularly at the grassroots level, to become the new kingmakers in Indian politics? Only time will provide the answer.