The main framing of the discussion is this: Nawaz Sharif and Maryam Nawaz Sharif, dejected by party leaders that include Shehbaz Sharif after their no-show at the Lahore airport on July 13, would like to go abroad for a while to fight another day in exchange for smooth sailing of the new political order.
The possibility has raised more questions than it may answer.
Interestingly, rumours of a deal were mostly whipped by the government leaders, starting with Murad Saeed, Faisal Vawda and Sheikh Rasheed.
Why did these politicos talk about the deal?
Besides discrediting their main opponent the PML-N, the main reason is the fear of losing power, fully or partially. These politicos know how the miltablishment has catapulted them to the power. They are fearful that if there is any rapprochement between the outcast PML-N and the miltablishment, they will be thrown out of power in a second, given their precarious strength in the centre and in the Punjab.
“Sheikh Rasheed is throwing tantrums like an angry child who is afraid of losing his only toy,” said a PML-N strategist requesting anonymity.
The condition of other seemingly staunch anti-PML-N Insafians is no different, as they would end up as losers. However, many in Imran Khan’s camp believe that the exit of Nawaz Sharif and Maryam may actually be good for them, as it would remove the main irritant challenging their legitimacy and they may find some relief to complete the remainder of their term.
The situation within the PML-N is much more complex. Many PML-N leaders, Shehbaz Sharif included, sincerely believe that the main DNA of the party is pro-establishment. They believe that cohabitation and co-existence, rather than the confrontation with the miltablishment is the name of the game. They also believe that the confrontational policies pursued by Nawaz Sharif and his daughter Maryam have deprived them of the power in the 2018 elections. They consider the presence of Nawaz Sharif and his belligerent daughter a hindrance to their politics and hope that after their exit from the national scene, they may somehow get back in the game either through early polls or some kind of national government.
The hawks in the PML-N are thinking differently. They consider the presence of Nawaz Sharif and Maryam Nawaz as the source of their strength. They believe that had Nawaz Sharif and Maryam not returned to Pakistan in July last year, their party would not have secured even 84 plus seats in the National Assembly, besides being at the striking distance in the Punjab Assembly.
What options does the father-daughter duo have?
If they choose to stick around and stay combative, they can expect to stay behind bars where they may have some interaction with their party workers once a week. But they would not be allowed to engage in active politics. This partly explains the silence of Maryam Nawaz Sharif. She knows that if she goes in an overdrive, the chances of her returning to jail would go higher. Then she may be out of scene for even a longer time. Will that help her politics? That is the question both father and daughter ponder.
With the media suppressed, most critical voices silenced and ostracized, the PPP pushed to the wall, most of their leaders compromised, some close confidantes have advised them to accept a deal and have an option to fight another day.
How is the PPP viewing all these developments?
Many in the party believe that if things ease up for Nawaz Sharif and Maryam Nawaz, it might open doors for them as well. So they will not oppose any deal that benefits Nawaz Sharif and his daughter at the moment.
Now put yourself in the shoes of the dealmaker, the miltablishment.
They want internal stability, regional engagement and better economy. They want a favourable outcome in Afghanistan, cooling of tensions on the eastern front and political stability to achieve these goals. The jail and hospital scenes of Nawaz Sharif and Maryam don’t allow wounds of the engineered elections of last year to heal. Removing Nawaz Sharif and Maryam Nawaz from the national scene helps them achieve those goals. So it suits them as well.
How does this get operationalized?
The only road to the deal is through the courts. There are enough legal grounds for the courts to give them relief and allow the ailing former premier to go abroad along with his daughter. Will that happen soon as it is being talked about? We might not have to wait too long to find out.
Even if that happens, will that ensure that no crisis will erupt in the future? The answer to that question is no. There are too many national, regional and global variables at play which may bring Pakistan into another serious situation. Given the lack of the legitimacy of the PTI government, incompetence and poor governance, anything can happen.