For a decade, Prime Minister Narendra Modi ruled India with an overwhelming majority, exercising an iron grip on the nation. During this period, his political rivals and opponents were pinned to the sidelines, pummelled into submission by Modi's overwhelming wave of popularity sweeping the country.
But the latest electoral results, in which Modi's plans to gain two-thirds majority were dashed, have forced him into a precarious alliance with Nitish Kumar of the Janata Dal (United) and Chandrababu Naidu of the Telugu Desam Party, along with over a dozen other allies.
Modi's Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP), which has ridden on a wave of Hindutva power for a decade now, has fallen way short of its goal of 400 seats, securing only 240. This result, where the BJP fell 32 seats shy of a simple majority, has thrust India back into an era of coalition politics.
Modi's political journey, which first gained prominence due to his tenure as the chief minister of Gujarat starting in 2001, has always been one of absolute power and unchallenged by coalition dynamics. However, the current scenario now demands a cooperative approach. This is a significant shift for a leader known for his authoritative style, and it echoes the past struggles of former prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee.
However, Vajpayee's accommodating nature allowed him to take his alliance so far that he even got along with the petulant Jayalalita from Tamil Nadu, who led the All India Anna DMK. Once, when Vajpayee sent his confident ministers George Fernandes and Pramod Mahajan to Chennai to address her anger on some issue, she did not even open the doors of her house to the federal ministers. The two ministers had to sit in the watchman's room to talk to her via the intercom. They returned to New Delhi without getting an audience with her. Everybody in Delhi is keen to see how Modi will deal with his allies patiently.
Modi's political journey, which first gained prominence due to his tenure as the chief minister of Gujarat starting in 2001, has always been one of absolute power and unchallenged by coalition dynamics. However, the current scenario now demands a cooperative approach
The emergence of the Indian Alliance, a united opposition front, has successfully challenged BJP's dominance, although it didn't secure a majority. This alliance has rekindled India's secular credentials and, for the first time in a decade, pushed the BJP out of its comfort zone. Modi's once unassailable popularity has waned, as the electorate focuses on local issues and has expressed dissatisfaction with BJP's unfulfilled promises.
The BJP's decline from 303 seats in 2019 to 240 in this election marks a significant shift. The necessity of relying on allies like Nitish Kumar, known for his secular stance and criticism of BJP's policies, and Chandrababu Naidu, a staunch defender of Muslim reservations in Andhra Pradesh, underscores the challenges Modi faces.
For the BJP, maintaining harmony within such a coalition will require addressing social justice and welfare issues, areas it has largely neglected.
Political analysts are sceptical about Modi's ability to navigate this new landscape. Unlike his predecessors, such as Vajpayee and PV Narasimha Rao, who were known for their coalition management skills, Modi's political career has thrived on absolute mandates. His rule has seen significant, often controversial decisions like demonetisation, the abrogation of Article 370, and the contentious Citizenship Amendment Act. These moves, made with little regard for the opposition, will now be subject to scrutiny and negotiation within the coalition framework.
Modi and BJP's debacle in the 2024 general elections was primarily due to the erosion of their support in key states, particularly Uttar Pradesh; this further complicates Modi's position. Despite inaugurating the Ram Temple in Ayodhya, the BJP lost 29 seats in Uttar Pradesh, going from 62 in 2019 to 33 in 2024.
Even Ayodhya, a symbolic stronghold for the BJP, was lost to the Samajwadi Party. Local discontent over the impact that the temple's construction had on livelihoods played a crucial role in this shift. Locals in Ayodhya complained that the new temple was built by bulldozing their livelihood, but their pleas fell on the deaf ears of the BJP. "My shop was razed to the ground. I have been given a place six kilometres away. How do I run my business there," said Gomti Prasad, who ran a tea stall near the temple.
Many, like Prasad, have lost their homes and livelihoods. Locals who once owned a piece of land have not just been deprived of adequate compensation but have also lost legal rights over what has been awarded to them as compensation. Homes were razed to the ground, and lands were given to real estate developers for building hotels.
The rejection of Modi's aspirational narrative for 2047, amid rampant unemployment, inflation, and poverty, reflects a growing disillusionment among voters
While Modi hoped to be rewarded for bringing Lord Ram home after 500 years, Ram apparently had other plans for him. On the day of the election result, while addressing party workers in the evening, not only did Modi look visibly upset, but instead of hailing Lord Ram, he hailed Lord Jagannath, a popular deity in the state of Odisha — where the BJP had performed exceedingly well.
As Modi addressed his party following the election results, his frustration was evident. The invocation of Lord Jagannath instead of Lord Ram hinted at the need to reassess his strategies, especially as the BJP had fared well in Odisha.
The rejection of Modi's aspirational narrative for 2047, amid rampant unemployment, inflation, and poverty, reflects a growing disillusionment among voters.
Revival of Congress
The revival of Congress and the rise to prominence of regional parties signifies a return to coalition politics. Modi's reference to Jawaharlal Nehru's record of securing a third term in office, albeit without a full mandate, underscores the historical parallels.
Nehru's tenure saw a strong influence of Dr BR Ambedkar's ideology, which remains relevant today. The BJP's stance on constitutional amendments and its impact on Dalits and other backward communities further alienated these groups, which were historically supporters of Congress and regional parties.
"The message that BJP would amend the constitution, depriving Dalits and backward communities of the constitutional guarantees, was carried well," explains Ambedkarite, Professor Ratan Lal of Delhi University.
The unchallenged dominance of Modi will face resentment from within the party too. Senior party leaders, with political aspirations, will now approach the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) to introspect and look beyond the Modi Shah style of functioning.
A daunting task lies ahead for Modi Shah to keep his coalition united and navigate a complex political terrain. Results of the crucial assembly elections next year would clear the mist of whether the coalition would last a full term or fall apart in the volatile electoral dynamics of India.