“The FBR has already faced a revenue shortfall of Rs189 billion in the first four months of the current fiscal year. It is projected that this revenue shortfall will go up to Rs321 billion in the first half of the current fiscal year. The FBR thinks that the government must make an effort to convince the IMF to slash the revenue collection target of Rs12,913 billion keeping in view changes that occurred in nominal growth and reduction in LSM growth and imports. However, the IMF might not extend its support for a reduced target of FBR”— To opt for mini-budget or slash expenditure: Government strategises ahead of IMF meetings, The News, November 8, 2024
“The Laffer Curve, by the way, was not invented by me; it has its origins way back in time. For example, the Muslim philosopher Ibn Khaldun wrote in his fourteenth-century work The Muqaddimah: It should be known that at the beginning of the dynasty, taxation yields a large revenue from small assessments. At the end of the dynasty, taxation yields a small revenue from large assessment”—Dr. Arthur B. Laffer, known to have invented the Laffer Curve, has made this observation in his book, Return to Prosperity: How America Can Regain Its Economic Superpower Status (2010), co-authored with Stephen Moore
According to press and media reports, preparations for a mini-budget are underway in the wake of failure to meet two out of five fiscal conditions in the very first quarter of the current fiscal year, imposed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in US$7 billion 37-month extended fund facility (EFF) programme, approved on September 27, 2024, by its Executive Board.
There are also reportedly alternate proposals to “reduce expenditure to strike a balance in achieving the agreed fiscal deficit and primary balance targets”. The government will consolidate its position regarding such proposals before the scheduled SOS visit (November 11-15, 2024) of the IMF Mission to Pakistan, headed by Nathan Porter
The incompetence at the top level of the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) has resulted in generating insufficient revenues, below the targets agreed upon with the IMF for the first quarter of the current fiscal year (FY 2024-25). The stalwarts sitting at the policy level in FBR, instead of adding new sectors and potential taxpayers, found an easy solution to burden the existing taxpayers with a tsunami of taxes and duties in the federal budget 2024-25.
According to a news report, “Now it is a test of the economic managers how they can forcefully convince the government to reduce its expenditures instead of further suffocating the economy by unveiling a mini-budget”. There are apprehensions that in the end, there will be more taxes crushing the poor of the nation than austerity. Our elites will never forgo their perks and privileges—all are tax-free! The tax expenditure in the fiscal year 2023-24, as our own admission of FBR, was Rs3.879 trillion. It is still suppressed and the methodology is also questionable. The actual figure if we also include untaxed informal economy and crime proceeds, is around Rs9 trillion, if not more.
There are remarkable similarities between the operations of the IMF in Pakistan and the colonial era of East India Company vis-à-vis revenue collections; both are oppressive, tyrannical, unjust, and anti-people. The IMF-dictated policies are reminiscent of the British period when East India Company’s henchmen used to go to the peasant abodes and snatch most of their produce
In the entire process of imposing confiscatory taxes and duties, no one, including the IMF and World Bank, seems concerned about the less privileged of Pakistan. The policymakers (sic) are bent upon further burdening them with a new flurry of taxes to appease and comply with the demands of Lenders of Last Resort. In our peculiar milieu due to the intellectual and moral bankruptcy of ruling elites, IMF has emerged as the New East India Company. It has decided to take over our revenue administration in the same manner as was done by the East India Company in the Subcontinent which led to a long colonial era, where a handful of foreigners over-empowered millions of people.
There are remarkable similarities between the operations of the IMF in Pakistan and the colonial era of East India Company vis-à-vis revenue collections; both are oppressive, tyrannical, unjust, and anti-people. The IMF-dictated policies are reminiscent of the British period when East India Company’s henchmen used to go to the peasant abodes and snatch most of their produce. According to many historians, the East Indian Company’s tax collectors used to take away one-half to two-thirds of the crops. Therefore, the peasants’ lives were most miserable during the colonial period. The present government by imposing heavy sales tax on agricultural inputs has resurrected the days of East India Company.
The sovereignty of a state is measured by the power it enjoys in imposing taxes on its people. These taxes are to be utilised for the benefit of the less privileged and to ensure the general welfare of all citizens. On the contrary, our successive governments have been opening our markets to foreign goods so that our local industry becomes paralysed. One wonders how the rulers of the day are working in Pakistan. Obviously, they want perpetuation of their own rule and they know that this can be done only if they harp the tune of their foreign masters.
The foreign masters only want economic benefits through debtocracy, as they are no more interested in subjugating us physically. They are of the considered opinion that they should not take direct responsibility for “worthless subjects” like us. It is painful to note that the FBR, de facto legislator in tax matters, to please its foreign masters has resorted to the present oppressive structure of taxation that has complicated the poverty problem of Pakistan.
According to a study by the Asian Development Bank, the tax system of Pakistan, which was progressive till 1990, was converted into a regressive regime in 1991 with the introduction of withholding provisions in income tax law as a discharge of full and final obligation (presumptive taxes) that could easily be passed on, and then also making these as a minimum in 2019!
The result is that during the 33-year period (1991-2024), the tax burden on the poorest households is estimated to have increased by 48 percent, while it declined by 52 percent for the richest households. This should be an eye-opener for the target-oriented FBR’s stalwarts (sic)! In the frenzy of showing higher figures to their foreign masters, they have put an extra burden of taxes on the poor of Pakistan. History will never forgive them for this senselessness and shamelessness.
Somebody needs to tell the Prime Minister that the iniquitous prescription of erratic and oppressive taxes in the forthcoming federal budget will not solve our problems, especially in the prevalent circumstances
The traditional approach adopted for decades by finance ministers of successive governments in Pakistan, both civil and military, for balancing the books, levying more taxes in the name of containing the fiscal deficit, and other number games must be abandoned. We need higher, sustainable, and inclusive growth to create more employment. Our youth alone need six million jobs every year.
Fourteen years back, Dr Arthur B. Laffer and Stephen Moore suggested in Return to Prosperity why lower taxes are essential to economic growth as well as debt reduction and retirement, lean governments with lower expenses, rational trade, monetary and fiscal policies, and other conducive environment (ease of doing business and cost of doing businesses) to bring back the investors — all we need in Pakistan today.
Had our successive governments adopted these measures, we could have higher growth, mainly through export-led and import-substitutive industries, leading to better tax collection, manageable fiscal deficit and long-term, low-interest loans for creating income-yielding assets, infrastructure improvements and above all having trained human capital.
Unfortunately, nobody is talking about raising non-tax revenues by suggesting some out-of-box measures. Somebody needs to tell the prime minister that the iniquitous prescription of erratic and oppressive taxes in the forthcoming federal budget will not solve our problems, especially in the prevalent circumstances.
The federal and provincial governments need to generate and spend more money for infrastructure improvement to create more employment and ensure higher growth, on a competitive basis contracts should be given to the private sector to complete public projects in time. This would kick-start the economy. Simultaneously, governments need to reduce wasteful expenditure, right-size the monstrous size of their machinery, monetise all the perquisites of bureaucracy, and make taxes simple and low-rate.
Expensive state lands, situated in the centre of cities and occupied by elites, should be leased out for industrial, business, and commercial ventures. It will also generate substantial tax revenue as well (through public auction imposing a 10% income tax as a full and final tax will generate billions) and facilitate rapid economic growth.
The World Bank in its report, Pakistan Revenue Mobilisation Project, has noted:
“Pakistan’s tax revenue potential would reach 26 percent of GDP if tax compliance were to be raised to 75 percent, which is a realistic level of compliance for lower middle-income countries (LMICs). This means that the country’s tax authorities are currently capturing only half of this revenue potential, i.e. the gap between actual and potential receipts is 50 percent. The size of the tax gap varies by tax instrument and by sector. The tax gap in the services sector is larger than in the manufacturing sector (67 percent vs. 46 percent respectively) and it is larger for the GST/GSTS than for income tax (65 percent vs. 57 percent respectively)”.
The World Bank, before mentioning the tax gap, has not done proper research or study on higher tax rates, narrow tax base, numerous withholding provisions, heavy indirect (oppressive) taxation hurting the poor and salaried and other fixed-income groups and fragmented tax collection bodies at federal and provincial levels that are the main cause of low revenue collection.
These fundamental issues have been highlighted along with solutions in Towards Flat, Low-rate, Broad and Predictable Taxes [PRIME Institute, Islamabad, second revised edition — November 2020 — available for free here]. The third revised edition — October 2024 — will be launched on November 14, 2024, at the Fourth Prosperity Forum to be held in Islamabad.
Note: This is the first part of a two-part article. The second part will appear on Saturday, November 16.