The details of drone strikes — was it launched from an aircraft carrier in the Persian Gulf or it flew over the Pakistani territory — are shrouded in mystery. “Pakistan may have provided over-flight permission if the drone took off from a Gulf base or an aircraft carrier. I am not sure of the US aircraft carriers with launch facilities for drones. Facts will leak out in due course of time,” says Kaiser Tufail, an aviation expert and former pilot of Pakistan air force.
Some media reports claim that the American drone that killed Zawahiri was possibly launched from an airbase in Kyrgyzstan. “It could be that Kyrgyzstan or Tajikistan provided a one-time facility, though these countries do not have basing deals with the US anymore,” he adds.
Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff, General Qamar Javed Bajwa, and US Commander of CENTCOM, General Michael Erik Kurilla, had a telephonic conversation on July 31, 2022, the day Zawahiri was killed. “During the call, matters of mutual interests, regional stability as well as defence and security cooperation were discussed in detail,” stated a statement issued by the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR).
Some media reports claim that the American drone that killed Zawahiri was possibly launched from an airbase in Kyrgyzstan. “It could be that Kyrgyzstan or Tajikistan provided a one-time facility, though these countries do not have basing deals with the US anymore,” he adds.
It is important to note that Zawahiri was killed days after Qamar Javed Bajwa called on the US for help in negotiating a deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and only a few weeks ago, Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) Chief Lieutenant General Nadeem Anjum visited Washington.
Americans closed military bases in Central Asia in 2005 and were asked to vacate military bases in Pakistan in 2018. The drone strike that killed Zawahiri indicates that the CIA still has presence in Afghanistan. Certainly, this cannot be work done in one day. Americans must have monitored Zawahiri’s whereabouts and his routine for months.
Another military expert, Shahid Raza, says: “Either the drone that killed Zawahiri took off from somewhere in Central Asia or from some unpaved dirt road from within Afghanistan.”
“Some American UAVs can take off from dirt roads or unpaved runways. Predator family of drones is modular. The entire system can fit in 4 to 5 shipping containers. They don't need a serviceable airbase,” he says.
Drone technology is no more restricted to American military and intelligence communities. Iran, China, India and even Pakistan have drone military programmes. A country like Pakistan could not afford to remain oblivious to the strategic implications of this reality for its security. Now that Americans have carried out a second drone strike in Afghanistan —without Americans formally occupying the country — the whole range of possibilities open up for the military planners in this region.
“Some American UAVs can take off from dirt roads or unpaved runways. Predator family of drones is modular. The entire system can fit in 4 to 5 shipping containers. They don't need a serviceable airbase,” he says.
Americans have carried out drone strikes inside Afghanistan and tribal areas of Pakistan earlier when their military forces occupied Afghanistan. Back then such military activities were sanctioned by the United Nations (UN). Presently, Americans have no formal presence in the region and no UN sanctions for actions. They were disallowed to continue holding military bases in Central Asia after 2005. Russia and China exerted pressure on the Central Asian states not to allow Americans to maintain bases in their countries.
Similar US strikes in the region in future could have security implications for Pakistan. Pakistan needs to establish that it is different from Afghanistan for two reasons: a) Unlike Afghanistan, Pakistan has a functioning state and a professional security apparatus that can manage internal security situations; b) the ragtag militia ruling Afghanistan has a history of terror attacks in the region.
Pakistan’s right-wing enthusiasts therefore should not push the Pakistani state into a closed alley, where it becomes an outpost of religious extremism – and, in the process make it vulnerable to similar strikes.