This new clarity on Pakistan’s policy regarding the TTP comes after a video message from TTP leader Mufti Noor Wali Mehsud that his group is still amenable to a ceasefire with the Pakistani state. “We held talks with Pakistan mediated by the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. We are still open to the ceasefire agreement,” Mehsud said in a video message published by the banned group's "Umar Media" last week.
A congregation of 16 clerics also issued a religious edict, or fatwa, in which they answered some questions that Mehsud raised, and declared that it is "forbidden according to the tenets of Islam" that any person rebel against the Islamic Republic of Pakistan.
It may be noted that Mehsud's deputy, Mufti Muzahim (also known as Qari Amjad), had issued a letter in November last year, ordering TTP operatives to launch attacks on security forces across Pakistan. The TTP has also recently threatened to attack the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) if these two parties in the ruling coalition authorize the military to carry out an operation against the militants.
It now appears unlikely that Pakistan will take the bait of agreeing to another ceasefire with the TTP, at least under the current civil-military regime in Pakistan. It also seems very improbable that, going forward, Pakistan would merely agree to a ceasefire with the TTP. It is likely that Pakistan would seek more than just the Afghan Taliban’s "mediation".
Offering talks and ceasefire deals to an extremist militant organization - one that really has no interest in surrendering its weapons and violent beliefs - only serves to legitimize its cause
However, this will no longer be the case anymore, as Islamabad is looking to address loopholes in its Afghan policy. This view is largely based on the understanding in Pakistan’s establishment, that the country's Afghan policy needs an urgent review if Islamabad has to maintain any hopes of expecting support from the Afghan Taliban, to contain TTP and other terror groups. Previous ceasefires have only emboldened the TTP and allowed the Afghan Taliban to “just do enough to fend off pressure from Islamabad,” a government source said.
It is expected that Pakistan will increase pressure on the Afghan Taliban, in cooperation with countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the U.S. to shut down TTP’s sanctuaries in Afghanistan. Moreover, Pakistan could also make it difficult for the Afghan Taliban to secure the international recognition and legitimacy which the militia has sought since taking over Kabul in August 2021.
Pakistan may not necessarily resort to a military operation inside Afghanistan to root out TTP sanctuaries. But Pakistan is definitely expected to increase the tempo of counterterrorism operations in the western tribal districts, where concerns on TTP’s return have been mounting since the past few months, as the group accelerates its latest campaign of attacks.
There now appears to be strong appetite for the military’s deployment, even large-scale operations, in the tribal areas to confront and root out the TTP threat
Thousands of people recently took to the streets in South Waziristan to protest against the resurgence of terrorism. They called on the government to immediately take steps to restore peace in the region. Leaders of the PPP, PML-N, ANP, and Pashtun Tahaffuz Movement (PTM), addressed rallies and also demanded the deployment of well-equipped law enforcement agents to take charge of abandoned police stations.
U.S.-Pakistani cooperation to confront the TTP in tribal areas and beyond is expected to become the key component of Islamabad’s strategy in dealing with terrorism in the region. While details on the latest modalities of cooperation between the two countries have not come to light so far, Washington's strong diplomatic support for Pakistan’s case has already become public.
Days after the NSC meeting, the United States threw its weight behind the Pakistani leadership's counter-terrorism decisions, saying “Pakistan has a right to defend itself from terrorism”. U.S. State Department Spokesperson Ned Price said that the Afghan Taliban must uphold the commitments it made, especially in terms of preventing the use of Afghan soil for international terrorist attacks. “These are among the very commitments that the Taliban have been unable or unwilling to fulfill to date,” Price added.