How successful he will be in translating his popularity into a comfortable majority is up for question. Perhaps most importantly, Imran Khan’s relations with the military establishment in the run up to the polls will be decisive, as the establishment not only controls the coercive machinery of the state, it also exerts considerable influence on popular public opinion, and as a consequence electoral politics of the society.
Also important is how successfully his party cadre and leaders manage electoral politics. Whether he will be able to secure the support of Punjab’s electables, and whether his party cadres can manage the inter-party tussles around which electoral politics revolves in the big cities and urban centers of Punjab will be of key significance.
The patterns of Pakistani political history make it clear that the most popular political leaders do lose elections, if they find themselves on the wrong side of the military establishment. As recently as, 2018’s public opinion polls showed Nawaz Sharif to be the most popular leader, but his party still lost the parliamentary elections in that year because he was clearly on the wrong side of the then military establishment. It is not necessary that the military establishment physically intervene in electoral politics to defeat someone who they oppose.
In 2018, the tactful use of the state’s coercive machinery against Nawaz Sharif and his family were clearly instrumental in creating an image of the Sharifs as losers. Imran Khan, who, according to many commentators, is facing the threat of disqualification and even a jail sentence, must be watchful about any “tactful” use of the coercive machinery against him. Maybe it is already too late for Imran Khan: his rhetoric and political narrative has already inflicted irreparable damage to the image of the military establishment and has already made everyone in power corridors deeply insecure. How all of this will reflect on Imran Khan’s political future is not very difficult to judge.
The PTI’s electoral maneuvering will be influenced by the fact as to how well organized his party cadre is. There is no doubt that PTI will be facing a very tough opponent in the shape of PML-N, which is not only well organized, it is also well funded and it has a well-trained cadre in the electoral politics of urban Punjab, where the main battles would be will. Imran Khan has two advantages as far as the politics of electables in Punjab is concerned. Recently he has been joined by Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi, a master of the politics of electables in Punjab. Secondly, Imran Khan, according to public opinion polls, is the most popular politician, a patently attractive factor for the electables of Punjab.
The Chaudhrys of Gujrat have always been a master of the politics of electables in Punjab, which revolves around influence over state machinery - thana, katcheri and revenue department of the province determines the outcome when it comes to the politics among electable and influential families and personalities in Pakistan’s largest province. The Chaudhrys were partners of two military governments in the past 45 years and they played a crucial role in bringing these electable personalities and families on the side of last two military dictators, Zia and Musharraf, both of whom were confronted by popular oppositions in their respective eras and needed a political base to shore up their legitimacy. Under the protection of military governments, the Chaudrys of Gujrat learnt the art of using the influence of coercive state machinery in managing the loyalties of electable families and personalities.
The networking of influential families, which the Chaudhrys control or manage, only works when they are in total control of the coercive machinery of the state in the province. The Chaudhrys don’t have a vote bank as such, but they have political connections with the families of electables in the province. These electable families and personalities can get themselves elected to the assemblies without the support of any of the well-established political parties. But they do have a political need to side with one of the political groupings in Islamabad or in Lahore to increase their weightage in Islamabad’s or Lahore’s politics once they reach the assemblies. Here, the Chaudhrys have a crucial role to play - they facilitate electables’ entry and access to power corridors in Islamabad and Lahore. These electables are spread all over Punjab, but are mostly concentrated in Western and Southern Punjab.
Thus, Chaudhrys were as useful for General Zia, General Musharraf as well as for Imran Khan when all three of them needed to rope in electables in droves. But Imran Khan’s politics strikes at the very root of the Chaudhrys’ style of politics. Imran Khan is directly accusing senior officers of the military for conspiracy to eliminate him physically. This amounts to depriving Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi of his life line in politics of the electables, who is completely dependent on the military and its intelligence agencies for his influence over the province. Secondly, the Chaudhrys of Gujrat, however, are now a house divided: Chaudhry Shujaat Hussein and Chaudhry Pervez Elahi have parted company. It seems that the scions of two branches of Chaudhry family are engaged in a behind the scene tussle that has shattered the decade long unity of the family. Chaudhry Moonis Elahi, son of Chaudhry Pervez Ellahi, is on one-on-one terms with PTI Chairman Imran Khan and thus was not ready to have any kind of political relations with the Sharifs and PML-N. Whereas Chaudhry Shujaat’s son, Chaudhry Salik Hussein took a trip to London to specifically have a meeting with the PML-N leader, Nawaz Sharif.
In Pakistani politics, a political leader must exude an aura of invincibility or at least portray an image of impending victory in the forthcoming parliamentary elections. A serious and ruthless use of coercive machinery against Imran Khan can simply devastate his image of invincibility, which he has so far successfully retained. Imran Khan’s rhetoric and political narrative based on his unaccommodating and uncompromising attitude towards his opponents whom he accused of rampant financial corruption, will be one of the questions the so-called guarantors of this political system will be pondering these days.
Will a clear majority for Imran Khan bring stability to the political system, especially if Imran Khan implements his rhetoric and starts prosecuting his opponents on corruption charges? Will Imran Khan’s opponents, most of whom have a constituency of their own, accept him as a legitimate ruler? Some indications of how the things will evolve has started to surface with PML-N’s Maryam Nawaz Sharif stating clearly that in order to hold fair elections it is necessary that “unjust” and “unfair” verdicts against Nawaz Sharif should be reversed. The kind of attitudes and behavior our political class is demonstrating could prove to be a kiss of death for our political system.
The political confrontation and tensions we see in our society can potentially become a cause of concern for our national security managers. Society is deeply divided and they are at each other’s throats. Political opponents have turned into bloodthirsty enemies. Time to ponder for those who thought political confrontation between major political parties will create favorable circumstances for their institutional interests.
Time to shame those who laid the foundations of this confrontation with 2014’s soft intervention.