The abrupt collapse of the Assad dynasty this past weekend marks a watershed moment in Middle Eastern geopolitics. After over five decades of authoritarian rule, the Assad regime was toppled as Syrian rebels seized Damascus, hours after President Bashar al-Assad fled to Moscow. While the event has been celebrated by Syrians worldwide as a potential conclusion to a devastating 13-year civil war, the circumstances surrounding Assad’s departure and the speed of the regime’s collapse suggest a more intricate geopolitical context.
The Syrian Civil War ignited in 2011 amidst the broader Arab Spring, has exacted a catastrophic toll. According to HRW, over 600,000 children have been chronically malnourished. More than 12 years of war have decimated Syria’s civilian infrastructure and services, severely affecting access to shelter, health care, electricity, education, public transportation, water, and sanitation. In addition to this, UN GOI states that women and children with chronic diseases and disabilities, including those with untreated injuries dating back to 2019, are vulnerable in northeast Syria's detention camps due to a lack of access to sufficient health treatment.
From its birth, the Syrian conflict was shaped by external powers vying for influence in the region. The United States, Israel, and Gulf Arab states provided extensive support to the opposing factions, while Iran, Russia, and Hezbollah fortified Assad’s regime. These alliances turned Syria into a proxy battleground. However, the Russian intervention in 2015, through aerial bombardments and military advisers, remained important in keeping Assad in power. Similarly, Iranian-backed militias, including Hezbollah, played an important role in tackling opposition forces. However, shifts in global dynamics—including Russia’s preoccupation with the Ukraine war and the decimation of Hezbollah’s high command by Israel in late 2023—have weakened Assad’s key allies.
Moreover, it is important to note that Syria was a critical node in Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance,’ opposing U.S. and Israeli influence. Assad’s downfall erodes this alliance, conveying a strategic victory to the Washington-Tel Aviv bloc. Israel, which occupies Syria’s Golan Heights in defiance of international law, stands to benefit from the dismantling of this resistance. U.S. airstrikes, ostensibly targeting remnants of Daesh, and Israeli bombings under the pretext of neutralising arms shipments further accentuate their strategic interests in sculpting Syria’s post-Assad future.
The Syrian opposition is a fragmented coalition, with extremist factions like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and remnants of Daesh (ISIS) having played prominent roles. While Daesh has been largely degraded, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, led by Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, now emerges as the dominant force. Jolani’s recent rebranding as a moderate leader advocates stability, raising nothing but skepticism. His group, rooted in Al-Qaeda, has a history of atrocities against minorities. Observers worry that international support for Hayat may exacerbate sectarian tensions and further destabilise Syria.
Given the imperialist undercurrents influencing the Middle East, cautious optimism remains prudent. The fall of Assad’s regime is more than just the end of a dictatorship; it reflects the changing sands of global geopolitics
Historical precedents in Iraq, Libya, and Afghanistan highlight the perils of externally orchestrated regime changes. These interventions often replace autocracy with prolonged instability, civil strife, and humanitarian crises. In Iraq, the 2003 U.S.-led invasion led to the rise of Daesh and ongoing sectarian violence. According to a 2016 study published in the journal PLOS Medicine, over a million people may have died as a result of the conflict, including over 600,000 civilian deaths. In addition to this, the Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University estimated the total cost of the 2003 Iraq War including interest on debt, veteran care, and economic losses, to be over $8 trillion as of 2021. Libya also remains fragmented since NATO’s 2011 intervention, displacing over 600,000 people internally. The war also had a massive impact on the lives of between 600,000 and 700,000 migrants and refugees, largely from Sub-Saharan Africa, in Libya. The country’s GDP, which was highly reliant on oil, also fell drastically. Similarly, since the 2001 US-led invasion of Afghanistan, at least 47,245 civilians have been killed between 2001 and mid-2021 (Brown University–Costs of War project).
These interventions act as a stark reminder as they inflame ethnic and religious divisions, exacerbate economic and infrastructural collapse, and have global ripple effects. For instance, in Iraq, the U.S.-led invasion worsened the Sunni-Shia divide, while Libya’s tribal rivalries escalated after NATO's intervention. Economically, wars erase decades of progress; Iraq and Libya’s healthcare and education systems remain in shambles, while Afghanistan’s banking infrastructure has been paralysed, aggravating poverty and food insecurity. Extremist groups like ISIS and Al-Qaeda exploit these unstable situations to strengthen their networks.
While Syrians celebrate the probable end of an age of persecution, the road ahead remains fraught with difficulties. To avoid repeating the mistakes of past interventions, foreign actors must prioritise inclusive governance, economic rebuilding, and minority rights. However, given the imperialist undercurrents influencing the Middle East, cautious optimism remains prudent. The fall of Assad’s regime is more than just the end of a dictatorship; it reflects the changing sands of global geopolitics. As the region adjusts to this seismic transition, we must learn from past interventions and figure out a way to prevent Syria’s future from devolving into further bloodshed and divisions.