This is the core issue which the opposition is trying to fathom. If the Miltablishment is “neutral”, ie, if it will not bail out the government when the opposition storms the National Assembly in days to come, then the government’s allies will flock to the opposition’s camp and a vote of no-confidence will succeed in ousting the PTI regime and opening the way for fresh elections. The argument here is that since the Miltablishment earlier roped in the Allies to prop up the PTI government, its “neutrality” now will free them to seek fresh alliances with the opposition in order to have a fighting chance in the next elections in which the PTI’s rout is forecast. Hence Sheikh Rashid’s assurance that the Miltablishment is still standing with the government and will protect it from falling down.
Meanwhile, the opposition has come to the conclusion that the Miltablishment has finally and irrevocably withdrawn into the shadows and will not any longer prop up a hugely unpopular government which has discredited the Miltablishment for supporting it. Consequently, talk of resignations from parliament or protest rallies has given way to feverish meetings to put the numbers together for a vote of no-confidence. The government and its allies tally 182 while the opposition adds up to 162. The critical difference of 20 is made up of the government’s allies. If just over half break away, the government will fall. All the opposition has to do is to offer them guaranteed seats on winning tickets in the next elections and they will come running. But is it really as simple as that?
The Chaudhries of Gujarat have five NA seats. They currently have the Punjab Speakership and two federal ministries in hand. So they will want more than that in their Punjab home base for ditching the PTI. But here’s the problem: the PMLN will need to sweep Punjab in order to reach Islamabad and the last thing they will want to give away to unreliable partners in crime is too many seats or a significant share of power. Then there’s the MQM with two MNAs. It has many problems with the PPP in Karachi. But the PMLN can’t help them against its main partner in the “Get Imran Operation”. And so it is with the others in KP and Balochistan. The Lone Ranger on the horizon is Jehangir Tareen who claims over 20 MNAs in his stable to sell to the highest bidder. But, like the MQM and Chaudhries, he won’t move without a nod from the Miltablishment. So, is the Miltablishment with the government or is it neutral (meaning the allies can take independent decisions in their own self-interest)?
It isn’t also simply of question of a few more or less votes for either side. The Speaker of the National Assembly, Asad Qaisar, is a thoroughly partisan fellow who has never shied away from fiddling the vote count in the past. And since his decisions cannot be challenged in any court, he may be expected to ride rough shod over the opposition. Therefore, the winning margin should be so significant that it can’t be fudged. Furthermore, Imran Khan’s desperation should not be discounted. He may not be averse to the idea of using the FIA and NAB to detain or kidnap opposition MNAs from Punjab and Sindh.
There are other weighty matters to settle even if the numbers can be cobbled and the PTI government kicked out shortly. Will the interim “opposition” government be short or long? When will fresh elections be ordered? Who will be PM and President? What will the caretaker government after the interim government look like? What will happen to the provincial governments if they don’t stick to the dissolution plan in Islamabad? Can we have a general election without simultaneous provincial elections?
Sheikh Rashid’s end-March scenario is ominous for another reason. It is speculated that come April and Imran Khan may announce General Faiz Hameed – the man who engineered his rise and ensured his survival until now -- as the next head of the Miltablishment. Should that happen, the opposition will be sent packing and Imran Khan can rest assured of another five year “selection” next year. Alternatively, if the Miltablishment has decided not to allow Imran Khan to interfere in its internal matters regarding appointments, promotions, transfers or extensions, it may be provoked into a confrontation with the government that will not necessarily be in the interest of the opposition. So, if the opposition has to take the plunge, it must strike now, but in no case beyond the next 50 days.
Shehbaz Sharif and Asif Zardari have feted and exchanged more than just pleasantries. An MQM delegation has lunched with Mr Sharif while the Chaudhries have shaken hands with Mr Zardari. Mr Sharif is now scheduled to hob-nob with Jehangir Tareen and the Chaudhries. Meanwhile, Imran Khan has taken to public platforms to blast them all.
The tension is palpable. It is writ on the face of each protagonist. But here’s the rub. There is no such thing as “Miltablishment neutrality” in anyone’s book. In the current scenario, with end-game approaching, this amounts to “either you’re with us or against us”! Who will strike first?