Tension, distrust, and volatility mark the relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Both countries struggle with insecure roots that complicate their already fragile relations. While Pakistan is under increasing attack by TTP, since August 2021 the situation has worsened following the Afghan Taliban's takeover of Kabul. However, it was predicted that once the US withdraws from Afghanistan things for Pakistan will be better. With the hope of a better security situation, Pakistan welcomed the Taliban 2.0. Conversely, the Taliban government in Afghanistan views Pakistan's border policies, particularly about the Durand Line, as hostile and provocative. Colonial boundary disputes continue to create hostility intensified by rising incidents of cross-border skirmishes.
In 2025, Pakistan's growing dependence on its haqqa-network to mediate with Kabul demonstrates its declining influence on Afghan affairs. A growing number of Talibs-Kandahari factions leading the Afghan Taliban from now on invariably sideline Islamabad and show scant regard for its regional ambitions. This development led to Kabul claiming Pakistan's failure as a violation of its sovereignty as evidenced by Pakistan's aerial strikes on the TTP in December 2024, which had increased complaints of incursion. The Taliban fighters waged retaliatory strikes against Pakistan as a result of this perceived incursion. Meanwhile, Pakistan faces a double-edged security crisis as it wards off additional troop deployments while supporting the borders with Afghanistan and India.
A Historical Account
Pakistan has always been somewhere between strategic manipulation and sheer neglect, leading to long-term consequences. It was in 1997 that Pakistan recognised the first Taliban regime, which has been the source of suspicion and distrust between the two nations. Unlike 2021, when the Taliban took Kabul without direct assistance from Islamabad, prompting cries of betrayal from Afghan intelligence, in the 1990s, Pakistani forces were heavily vested in the Tajik civil war in support of the Taliban, providing the forces with military intelligence, funding, and refuge.
In the post-September 11 era, when its policies of "strategic ambiguity" and tacit support clandestinely worked against it, the government's portrayal of itself as an ally of the U.S.-led War on Terror clashed with its relationship with the Taliban, who were secretively allowed to regroup in Quetta and northern Balochistan regions. The Northern Alliance-dominated government of Afghanistan, because of that duplicity, grew increasingly mistrustful. Also, Pakistan refused to accept any legitimacy towards the Afghan territorial sovereignty especially the Durand Line which led to differences grew wider. These policies served only to build the very foundation of insecurity upon which Pakistan is standing at present with the Taliban being a direct offshoot of these.
U.S. Role in Afghanistan and Lasting Effects on Pak-Afghan Relations
From 2001 to 2021, U.S. and NATO forces' presence in Afghanistan acted as a controversial influence on the regional dynamics. The paradox presented itself in a mixed bag for Pakistan, the United States was extensively financing and arming Pakistan, ostensibly for counter-terrorism efforts with U.S. troops in place, Pakistan could not exercise its influence over Afghanistan as Kabul drew closer to Washington and New Delhi.
In the intricate and volatile relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan, there are a series of historical mistakes and recent security dynamics that have generated a mistrust-conflict cycle
Under U.S. pressure, Pakistan launched military operations against the TTP positions located in its tribal belt, further achieving limited but notable successes. These operations, however, had the effect of displacing militant groups into Afghan territory, where regrouping would occur for retaliatory strikes against Pakistan. This vicious circle of violence reflected the interdependence of security in both states, an important point neglected by the policymakers of Pakistan.
The U.S.-led Doha Agreement in 2020 provided an opportunity for the eventual shift. By ostracising Pakistan from the negotiations, the Afghan Taliban unwittingly signaled a change in their relationship with Islamabad. Once the agreement was made, its implementation, which included awkward U.S. troop withdrawal in 2021, created a power vacuum that Pakistan was ill-equipped to deal with. The empowerment of the Afghan Taliban emboldened the TTP: they exploited this newfound camaraderie with their Afghan counterparts and went ahead to launch a series of deadly attacks on Pakistan soil.
Comparison of Past and Present Dynamics
Present-day Pak-Afghan relations are an antithesis of the period when U.S. forces were deployed in Afghanistan. Whereas, during the U.S., presence, Pakistan played a predominantly reactive role, shaped by the need to balance its alliance with Washington against the covert support it was extending to the Afghan Taliban. This duality allowed Pakistan to keep a thin veneer of influence over Kabul, whereas it could keep the TTP in check.
In stark contrast, the post-2021 complex has laid bare Pakistan's strategic deficits. Now that the Afghan Taliban are the ruling party, acting as proxies on behalf of Islam is no longer a feasible strategy, since they are their masters. The Afghan Taliban challenge this narrative and, instead, assert their further independence at the cost of Pakistan. Evidently, they support the TTP and do not recognise the Durand Line, calling it a "hypothetical boundary."
Economically too, Pakistan's failure to capitalise on Afghanistan's reconstruction efforts has cleaned out yet further whatever influence Pakistan had. While India committed over $2 billion to roads, hospitals, and schools, Pakistan could not gain a similar foothold. This neglect has eroded Pakistan's soft power, forcing it to revert to coercion, most recently evident in the airstrikes in Paktika.
Further, the withdrawal of U.S. forces obviated a safeguard. The U.S. before acted as a facilitator of crisis management in de-escalating tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan. This is no longer an option, as Islamabad must confront its challenges with very limited international backing. The situation has aggravated Pakistan's internal security challenges, with testimony to that coming from the December 2024 TTP attack and the subsequent countermeasures.
In the intricate and volatile relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan, there are a series of historical mistakes and recent security dynamics that have generated a mistrust-conflict cycle. With the departure of U.S. forces, this relationship has come to the fore in its fragility, forcing both nations to look within and have a proper reflection without interference from the outside.