Brahumdagh is believed to be among the most uncompromising of the leaders of the long struggle for greater autonomy for Balochistan.
“If our friends, allies, comrades and the Baloch people want this then of course we will be prepared to talk to Pakistan,” he told BBC in an interview published on August 27. He denied having spoken to Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan who was in London at that time, but added:“If he wants to meet us we are prepared to meet him. It would be foolish for anyone to refuse a political dialogue if it is offered in the right spirit.”
"It would be foolish to refuse dialogue"
The statement is being seen as a landmark change in his stance. While some analysts say it will have a domino effect in Baloch politics, others are skeptical.
The local politics of his home district of Dera Bugti is complicated, with a history of a bloody feud between the Rahija and Kalpar sub-clans of the Bugti tribe. Brahumdagh belongs to the former. The Kalpars, who had fled Dera Bugti and taken shelter in Multan, returned to the district after Akbar Bugti’s death. The sub-clan is a significant political actor in Dera Bugti once again.
Several of Akbar Bugti’s own six sons do not agree with Brahumdagh’s struggle. Jameel Bugti had a key position in Pakistan Petroleum Ltd, and Talal Bugti’s son Shahzain is the leader of his grandfather’s Jamhoori Watan Party. Saleem Bugti’s son Aali sided with the federal government and became the chief of the Rajiha Bugtis. Shazawar has no interest in politics and lives in the Middle East. Salal Bugti was killed in Quetta in 1992.
Barhumdagh is the son of Rehaan Bugti. After his grandfather’s death in 2006, he formed the founded the Balochistan Republican Party and began a struggle for an independent Balochistan. By 2010, he had moved to Kabul, before being granted asylum by Switzerland.
In his August 27 statement, he seems to be ready to withdraw his hardline demand for a free Balochistan if “the Baloch people agree”.
Jaan Mohammad Buledi, a spokesman for the chief minister of Balochistan, sees the statement as a green signal for dialogue. “We don’t want to lose this opportunity,” he said. “But all dialogue will be held within the constitutional and democratic framework.”
If Brahumdagh Bugti returns, Buledi believes other leaders, who he calls “puppet chieftains”, will be sidelined. “He will be welcomed by his tribe and people,” he says. “It will also be a victory for the government if there is a breakthrough in the formal reconciliation process in Balochistan. We will facilitate him in any way we can.”
But the political parties in the opposition in the Balochistan Assembly are less optimistic. Sardar Akhtar Mengal, a former chief minister and the president of his own faction of Balochistan National Party (Mengal), said in a press conference on September 6 that situation in Balochistan was worse than during the Pervez Musarraf regime, and the “kill and dump” policy of that government continued.
"Brahumdagh's conditions are too stern"
“Brahumdagh’s conditions are too stern, and it is unlikely that the government will accept his demands. It seems like a distant dream,” says Anwar Sajdi, editor of the daily Intekhab. “Even if the government accepts his demands, it will be hard for him to return to Pakistan. He does not have that kind of tribal or political significance. He is only leading the Baloch movement as the president of Balochistan Republican Party.”
A ‘Grand Jirga’ set up by the chief minister of Balochistan late in August, and an Apex Committee monitoring law and order in the province, will meet Brahumdagh soon, says Samina Khan, a provincial legislator from the ruling PML-N. She sees his statement as a positive development. “There is a consensus among the political and military leadership about resolving the situation in Balochistan,” she says.
A lot depends on how the government and the establishment respond to the offer, analysts believe, and whether they can exhibit the boldness and sincerity that will be required to resolve the decades-old situation.
The writer is a freelance journalist and researcher focusing on politics, history and culture
Twitter: @Hdilmrad
Email: hdilmurad@yahoo.com