As Pakistan's economy failed to meet most of its targets set in the previous budget (for the financial year 2023-24), the government sought to remind the public that one major challenge it was facing was that it was one of the world's most vulnerable nations to the impacts of climate change.
"Despite accounting for only 0.9% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, Pakistan is one of the world's most vulnerable nations to the impacts of climate change," stated the Pakistan Economic Survey 2023-24 report. The PES is an annual report that charts the country's economic progress for the outgoing financial year, i.e., from July 1, 2023, to June 30, 2024.
The economic survey found that Pakistan had posted growth of 2.38% in the outgoing fiscal year owing to gradual economic recovery and some over-performing sectors such as agriculture (6.25%) and construction (5.8%). The country's gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 26.4% from Rs83,875 billion to Rs106,045 billion. The investment-to-GDP ratio stood at 13.14% in FY24, compared to 14.3% in FY23, owing to increased political uncertainty and contracting macroeconomic policies.
The report shared startling revelations about climate change's impact on the country's economy. It warned that the country faces unpredictable weather patterns, resulting in flash floods, droughts, glacial lake outbursts, intense heat waves, and erratic rainfall.
"The country faces unpredictable weather patterns, resulting in flash floods, droughts, glacial lake outbursts, intense heat waves, and erratic rainfall," said the report, mentioning that because of the devastating effects of climate change, ecosystems and landscapes were deteriorating.
About the worst impact, the report said forest fires are increasing, while animal species are migrating, and water bodies and wells are depleting due to intensified human activities and weather events.
It was informed that the rising sea levels and more intense coastal storms could lead to coastal flooding and erosion, causing the loss of crucial coastal habitats such as mangroves, which serve as important nurseries for many fish species.
The Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggests that climate change would likely worsen the frequency and intensity of such extreme events.
The report further raised the alarm that the annual expected damage from riverine floods by 2050 was projected to surge by 47% (RCP 4.5) and 49% (RCP 8.5), respectively. The fraction of the population exposed to heatwaves yearly is expected to increase by 32% (RCP 4.5) and 36% (RCP 8.5) by 2050, respectively.
"The average temperature in Pakistan has increased by 1°C since the 1980s and is projected to continue rising. Climate change has significantly affected the Indus River Delta, situated at the confluence of the Indus River and the Arabian Sea. With increased temperatures and rising temperature volatility, Pakistan will see increased climate-related severities in the future," according to the report.
The most serious effects of climate change in Pakistan are expected to increase severe droughts and volatility in extreme precipitation events (monsoon/ rain storms), leading to more mudslides and landslides.
"Beyond its NDCs, Pakistan has exceeded mitigation efforts, resulting in an 8.7% reduction in emissions between 2016 and 2018.
The government, adhering to its GHG emissions trajectory outlined in Pakistan's NDCs 2016, aims to limit emissions to 1,603 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2e) by 2030. Pakistan also aims to shift to 60% renewable energy and 30% electric vehicles by 2030," reads the report.
The report conceded that Pakistan was grappling with an air pollution crisis, with some urban areas experiencing hazardous levels of pollution throughout the year.
"Children are susceptible to air and water pollutants, which can have lifetime consequences in terms of diseases, disability, cognitive impairment, and death," according to the report, which also mentioned Over a million citizens are at increased mortality risk from air pollution in highly urbanized cities, especially Lahore, Karachi, and Peshawar.
To mitigate the impacts of climate change, the report said the government had launched the first phase of the Green Pakistan-Upscaling Programme, in which 2.12 billion saplings were planted. The programme is undergoing revision for the next five years, 2024-2028, to expand its scope to include carbon finance mechanisms, scientific resource assessments, livelihood creation, and biodiversity conservation.
In this regard, it said that Pakistan and China had signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on Green and Low-Carbon Development cooperation in October 2023. Other memorandums on various climate change-related projects were signed with the UAE (investment cooperation in wastewater treatment projects) and Kuwait (investment cooperation for the development of a mangroves rehabilitation project).
Pakistan also orchestrated its first artificial rain through cloud seeding in collaboration with the UAE's National Centre of Meteorology to combat air pollution in Lahore.
On the energy side, of the total installed electricity capacity in the country, 25.5% was from hydel, 59.5% from thermal, 8.4% from nuclear, and 6.8% from renewables. On the renewables side, as of March 2024, the government said there were 117,807 net-metering-based solar panel installations generating around 1,822 megawatts of power.
The industrial sector consumed the most power, at 26.29%, agriculture at 10.07%, and the commercial sector at 7.83%.
Moreover, the country imported some 12.30 million tonnes of petroleum products in the last fiscal year. The transport sector is the major consumer of petroleum products, comprising 79.4% of total demand. However, in terms of demand, Pakistan saw a 7.2% decrease between July 2023 and March 2024, falling from 11,976.7 thousand tonnes to 11,047 thousand tonnes.
During this period, Pakistan consumed around 17.28 million tonnes of coal.