But something even more dramatic has been brewing between America and the Taliban, and it is likely to be very traumatic for regional countries, especially Pakistan.
It is the growing prospects of rapprochement and eventual partnership between the Biden government and the Taliban 2.0. The Taliban Ideology has served its purpose during the long walk-back to power. Now, it is hardcore pragmatism that is taking over and will be guiding the Taliban behavior towards the international community.
The realities of power and regional dynamics are pushing the Taliban and the US towards the great convergence unthinkable a couple of months ago. The marriage of convenience between the two doesn’t augur well for Afghanistan and her immediate neighbors.
There are early and empirical signs indicative of the incipient mutual desire in Washington and Kabul for good working relations.
To begin with, America has been more surprised than concerned by the return of the Taliban who disproved the US intelligence report rejecting the imminence of the swift and sweeping take-over by the group. The Taliban stood guard outside Kabul airport while the US evacuated its citizens. More Importantly, Washington Post dropped a bombshell by disclosing the secret meeting between the CIA chief William Burns and Taliban co-founder Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, amid the chaotic and shameful American flight from the war-ravaged country. The highest-level encounter between the Taliban and the Biden administration reveals that the US is ready to reconcile with the fact of the Taliban being at the helm in Kabul and the need to engage them. Moreover, the deadly attack on Kabul airport saw a drone strike leading to the loss of innocent lives in the airport vicinity. The lack of any Taliban military reaction to the drone attack is suggestive of tacit approval of the retribution against the common IS threat. None could have imagined such a spirit of cooperation and connivance a couple of weeks ago.
It seems and sounds that the US and the Taliban leadership have decided not to be prisoners to the bloodied past. Understandably, there are a number of the following multiple factors that conspire to covert the erstwhile foes into good friends bound together by strategic expediency.
Let us dissect what compels the Taliban to forge good relations with America. First, the Taliban badly needs two things to consolidate their military victory at home: international legitimacy and assistance. Once out of the hangover of their military triumph, the herculean challenge of governing an aid-addict country will begin to bite the new rulers of Afghanistan. With an empty national kitty, governance is next to impossible. Being an aid economy, the country cannot be governed without American and western monetary lifeline that has been cut off since the recent fall of Kabul. Needless to say, the group will not be able to transform itself from an insurgency movement into a legitimate government if it fails to fulfil the fundamental needs of the public. Given the American preponderance in the international system, the upcoming Kabul regime will remain a pariah without US recognition. Pertinently, even if recognised by other great powers like China or Russia, both are no match to the global diplomatic and financial clout wielded by the US and its allies. Thus, Taliban leadership is well aware of the dire need for engagement with Washington whose diplomatic support and financial aid are critical to the former’s international and domestic legitimacy.
Moderate Taliban leadership needs American and Western backing as the hardliners will be intensifying their resistance to the international concerns for human rights
Second, with America on its side, the Taliban can enhance their bargaining position vis-à-vis other regional stakeholders like Russia, China, Iran and Pakistan. Third, moderate Taliban leadership needs American and Western backing as the hardliners will be intensifying their resistance to the international concerns for human rights. So, the Taliban’s internal power struggle will continue to nudge the soft-approach proponents towards alignment with the US. Taliban may have won the military part of the long war, but real battle awaits them on the diplomatic and governance fronts where the victory dynamics necessitate the collaboration with the US and the Company.
Seen from the perspective of the US, normalisation of relations with the Taliban can serve the long-term US interests in the region and beyond. In this regard, there is the realisation in Washington that leaving the Taliban to their own devices, will turn out to be a counterproductive strategy. Alienated from America, the legitimacy-denied and cash-strapped Kabul regime will be leaning more towards the American global rivals notably China. If engaged, the US can dilute growing Chinese, Russian and Iranian influence in the Taliban-controlled country. More significantly, with tacit Taliban support, America can use Uighur separatists as a strategic pressure on Beijing highly concerned by the presence of The Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM) members in Afghanistan.
As far as Pakistan is concerned, the intensifying great power rivalry on the global chessboard will force Islamabad to make a choice between Washington and Beijing. If Islamabad didn’t behave in line with the US code of conduct, America could prod the Taliban to heat up the Durand line. For the Taliban, TTP is its natural ally and will come in as a handy tool against Pakistan. The American 2.0 approach towards the Taliban 2.0 is going to throw unprecedented challenges for Pakistani establishment prematurely euphoric over the loss of Indian influence. With the Taliban firmly hitched to the Biden bandwagon, India will be able to secure its interests that will be routed through Washington. Further, the presence of the Daesh and Al Qaeda footprint on the Afghan soil is viewed as a national security threat by America. The normal diplomatic relations with the Taliban mean better coordination and cooperation against the above-mentioned terror outfits in addition to having a moderating effect on the Taliban’s domestic policies through formal engagement.
The American companies couldn’t make any substantial investment during the 20 years of the US control of Afghanistan due to the rampant Taliban insurgency. Now, the Taliban are sitting on mineral wealth worth nearly $1 trillion. With the erstwhile troublemakers, now established as rulers, the prospects of the US investment in the mineral resources especially the world’s largest lithium deposits, are tantalisingly higher. Important to note that lithium batteries are a key to the global shift to renewable energy sources whose significance is central in the global rush towards green technologies as climate change continues to heat up. Lately, Lithium has assumed the importance of a strategic commodity. China is the leading competitor to American electric vehicle makers that desperately need the mineral now directly controlled by the Taliban who has consistently been calling for foreign direct investment since their walk-in Kabul. Given their love for revenues from fair and foul sources, ranging from poppy to smuggling of precious stones, Taliban are capitalist in orientation rather than socialist. The powerful US companies attracted by the promise of the strategic mineral, have a powerful incentive to lobby for good relations with the Taliban amenable to capitalist norms. In conclusion, the marriage of the connivance between the US and the Taliban is going to ignite a new great game in Afghanistan with deadlier implications for the war-ravaged country and the region-especially Pakistan.