Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif does not believe in coincidences. Ideologically, he is a conservative – yet he is an experienced politician who understands miracles play very little role in upsetting the political chessboard in countries like Pakistan.
General Jillani gifted him to General Ziaul Haq around three decades ago. With the help of his mentors, he learned the art of outmaneuvering his opponents. His political journey taught him many important lessons – one of the most important one, perhaps, that the ‘handlers’ always keep changing their assets and keep dumping those who are no longer required.
As long as the military establishment was at odds with the People’s Party, or to be more precise, with Benazir Bhutto, Nawaz Sharif was the best horse to bet on. But, as they say, “time change people change”.
When Imran Khan and Tahirul Qadri invaded Islamabad last August, the prime minister did not have an iota of doubt that they were not working alone. The so-called Azadi and Inqalab marches were someone else’s handiwork, he belived. They were well thought-out and orchestrated moves to achieve some strategic gains.
Insiders say the prime minister has recently complained to Chief of Army Staff General Raheel Sharif that some “rogue” elements within the military establishment were trying to weaken his government.
The general promised to sort them out. Already preoccupied with cleansing Pakistan of Taliban and Al Qaeda militants, he told the prime minister the last thing the armed forces would do was to take over the government.
In fact, the course of direct military intervention was abandoned with the disgraceful fall of General Musharraf. The practice of indirect interventions will not cease to exist.
Insiders say the assurance from the army chief brought the prime minister some relief. However, doubts refuse to fade away. The prime minister and his kitchen cabinet firmly believe intelligence agencies encouraged both Imran Khan and Tahirul Qadri to weaken the PML-N government. That objective was met. And the result is evident with the establishment of military courts for two years, instead of six months, and the fading voice of the civilian leadership in foreign policy and strategic affairs like action against militants.
The recent defection of former Punjab governor Chaudhry Sarwar to Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaaf cemented the prime minister’s apprehensions that he would not have an easy home run to 2018, when the next elections are due. He must walk on a tight rope. Falling down is not an option.
Traditional political gimmickry was simple and predictable. It was not difficult to distinguish between the friends and foes. Not any more. In fourth generation political maneuvering, eggs are put in various baskets. Ostensibly, the PML-N’s basket is almost empty.
The previous government led by the People’s Party was an ideal dispensation for the military establishment. President Zardari, who was more eager to complete his tenure, resigned to even slightest pressure. After committing a couple of blunders he learned his lessons and never made those mistakes again. Firing Husain Haqqani said it all.
The only thing that perturbed the military establishment was rampant corruption during their five-year tenure. When the party’s co-chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari showed his annoyance over mismanagement and corruption in Sindh, he received silent praise from the top military brass.
The so-called political reconciliation, agreed upon between his father and prime minister Nawaz Sharif, has forced Bilawal to disappear from the scene for now. However, he has already made an impression. His growing popularity in the military establishment would mean a lot in the years to come, when he returns and is ready to take control of the party neutralizing his adversaries, including some close relatives.
In 2006, the People’s Party and the PML-N signed a Charter of Democracy swearing they would not undermine each other’s political mandate – in other words, they will not allow themselves to be used against each other by the military establishment. So far, both the parties have been adhering to the promise.
By the end of August, the prime minister was forced to believe his days in the PM House were numbered. With enemies at the gate and hostility with the top spy reaching its peak, political uncertainty engulfed the entire country.
Then two things occurred. First the original signatories of the CoD and other political parties joined hands. Then, General Raheel Sharif gave a categorical assurance that no matter what happened the armed forces will stay in the barracks.
The prime minister was relieved. What he failed to realize was that they may not lose their influence on Pakistan’s politics even from inside the barracks.
Defense Minister Khawaja Asif and Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar have rejected the trepidations that worse is about to come. Chaudhry Nisar is probably the most vocal politician in the PML-N. He was the one who had blamed the former ISI director general, Lt Gen Ahmed Shuja Pasha, of patronizing the PTI.
PML-N insiders say they party and the prime minister feel vulnerable and helpless, and they would not be surprised if Imran Khan starts another phase of street agitation, or Tahirul Qadri returns with all his verbosity. They are not concerned their tenure will be cut short. They are worried they will lose their say in important matters.
Shahzad Raza is an Islamabad-based journalist
Twitter: @shahzadrez
General Jillani gifted him to General Ziaul Haq around three decades ago. With the help of his mentors, he learned the art of outmaneuvering his opponents. His political journey taught him many important lessons – one of the most important one, perhaps, that the ‘handlers’ always keep changing their assets and keep dumping those who are no longer required.
As long as the military establishment was at odds with the People’s Party, or to be more precise, with Benazir Bhutto, Nawaz Sharif was the best horse to bet on. But, as they say, “time change people change”.
When Imran Khan and Tahirul Qadri invaded Islamabad last August, the prime minister did not have an iota of doubt that they were not working alone. The so-called Azadi and Inqalab marches were someone else’s handiwork, he belived. They were well thought-out and orchestrated moves to achieve some strategic gains.
Insiders say the prime minister has recently complained to Chief of Army Staff General Raheel Sharif that some “rogue” elements within the military establishment were trying to weaken his government.
The general promised to sort them out. Already preoccupied with cleansing Pakistan of Taliban and Al Qaeda militants, he told the prime minister the last thing the armed forces would do was to take over the government.
In fact, the course of direct military intervention was abandoned with the disgraceful fall of General Musharraf. The practice of indirect interventions will not cease to exist.
The defection of outgoing Punjab governor Chaudhry Sarwar has cemented the prime minister's apprehensions
Insiders say the assurance from the army chief brought the prime minister some relief. However, doubts refuse to fade away. The prime minister and his kitchen cabinet firmly believe intelligence agencies encouraged both Imran Khan and Tahirul Qadri to weaken the PML-N government. That objective was met. And the result is evident with the establishment of military courts for two years, instead of six months, and the fading voice of the civilian leadership in foreign policy and strategic affairs like action against militants.
The recent defection of former Punjab governor Chaudhry Sarwar to Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaaf cemented the prime minister’s apprehensions that he would not have an easy home run to 2018, when the next elections are due. He must walk on a tight rope. Falling down is not an option.
Traditional political gimmickry was simple and predictable. It was not difficult to distinguish between the friends and foes. Not any more. In fourth generation political maneuvering, eggs are put in various baskets. Ostensibly, the PML-N’s basket is almost empty.
The previous government led by the People’s Party was an ideal dispensation for the military establishment. President Zardari, who was more eager to complete his tenure, resigned to even slightest pressure. After committing a couple of blunders he learned his lessons and never made those mistakes again. Firing Husain Haqqani said it all.
The only thing that perturbed the military establishment was rampant corruption during their five-year tenure. When the party’s co-chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari showed his annoyance over mismanagement and corruption in Sindh, he received silent praise from the top military brass.
The so-called political reconciliation, agreed upon between his father and prime minister Nawaz Sharif, has forced Bilawal to disappear from the scene for now. However, he has already made an impression. His growing popularity in the military establishment would mean a lot in the years to come, when he returns and is ready to take control of the party neutralizing his adversaries, including some close relatives.
In 2006, the People’s Party and the PML-N signed a Charter of Democracy swearing they would not undermine each other’s political mandate – in other words, they will not allow themselves to be used against each other by the military establishment. So far, both the parties have been adhering to the promise.
By the end of August, the prime minister was forced to believe his days in the PM House were numbered. With enemies at the gate and hostility with the top spy reaching its peak, political uncertainty engulfed the entire country.
Then two things occurred. First the original signatories of the CoD and other political parties joined hands. Then, General Raheel Sharif gave a categorical assurance that no matter what happened the armed forces will stay in the barracks.
The prime minister was relieved. What he failed to realize was that they may not lose their influence on Pakistan’s politics even from inside the barracks.
Defense Minister Khawaja Asif and Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar have rejected the trepidations that worse is about to come. Chaudhry Nisar is probably the most vocal politician in the PML-N. He was the one who had blamed the former ISI director general, Lt Gen Ahmed Shuja Pasha, of patronizing the PTI.
PML-N insiders say they party and the prime minister feel vulnerable and helpless, and they would not be surprised if Imran Khan starts another phase of street agitation, or Tahirul Qadri returns with all his verbosity. They are not concerned their tenure will be cut short. They are worried they will lose their say in important matters.
Shahzad Raza is an Islamabad-based journalist
Twitter: @shahzadrez