The MQM and PTI share some common traits. Their leaders are autocratic, unpredictable, self-righteous and unaccountable. Their followers are blinded by faith and passion. Each puts a premium on mass dharnas and shutdown protests. Both are ever ready to conspire with the military establishment for a shortcut to office. In the 1980s, the MQM poached the voters of the Jamaat-i-Islami and Jamiat–i-Ulema Pakistan in urban Sindh. In the 2010s the PTI is poised to harvest the disillusioned crop of Sindh’s voters. Both are opportunists with a love-hate relationship: In 1996 Imran Khan went to MQM HQ at “90 Azizabad” to belatedly “condole” the death of Altaf Hussain’s brother and nephew and called the MQM leader “a real patriot”. Many years later Imran accused Altaf Bhai of being a murderer and terrorist and went to the UK to hound him in the courts. A couple of months ago, however, he staged a rally in Karachi with suitable accommodation by the MQM. Today he is calling Altaf Bhai unmentionable names and both are at each other’s throats.
The MQM is feeling particularly vulnerable and prickly. The British government is actively pursuing cases of money laundering and murder against MQM leaders and is putting pressure on the federal government to hand over two key accused in the custody of the ISI. It is under pressure in Karachi, too, where the Rangers are relentlessly hunting down “bhatta” and criminal groups allegedly patronized by the MQM. Its relations with the PPP have been rocky since it walked out of the Sindh government some months ago after Bilawal Bhutto criticized it as a blackmailing terrorist organization. The belated Joint Investigation Report (JIT) on the Baldia Town arson that left over 250 dead two years ago has once again put the spotlight on the MQM, even though it is clearly an attempt to mitigate the MQM’s involvement in the crime so that it can be nudged to return to government rather than destabilize the PPP in urban Sindh.
Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is thinking of setting up a commission to unearth the real truth of the Baldia tragedy. But before he ventures out, he might be advised to consider some troubling facts that could impact on the findings of such a commission, especially with regard to the role of the “agencies” in covering up the truth. The JIT report is full of holes. It seems to rely on the hearsay testimony of one person in custody. It doesn’t name names even though it refers to people in authority either in the MQM hierarchy or in the Sindh government. It can’t explain why it took two years to come to light. It mentions two journalists on the MQM’s hit list in 2013 but doesn’t name them. And so on. Incredibly enough, it is signed by representatives of the Rangers, ISI and MI, security “agencies” that are not answerable to the Sindh government and are supposed to be independent investigators. This anomaly can only lead to one conclusion: the military agencies, no less than the PPP Sindh government, have put a lid on the Baldia tragedy in order to protect the MQM. This would help to explain why the MQM has sought fit to immediately mend fences with the Sindh government and rejoin it.
Both the MQM and PTI are desperate to shrug off their recent travails. Imran Khan has said he intends to go to Karachi and challenge the lion in his den. This is a recipe for trouble.
We are singularly unfortunate in being unable to escape from turmoil and instability, which are major obstacles in the path of economic development. Imran Khan’s dharnas in 2014 were overtaken by the military operation against terrorists and its backlash is now overlapping with renewed strife and violence in Karachi. There is no end in sight, too, to the conflict between the PTI and PMLN over the 2013 election results and Imran Khan is threatening to return to the streets if his version of justice is not provided. That is why the specter of another military intervention refuses to vanish from Pakistan’s wretched horizon.