It defines the mood of the electorate in one of the most sensitive states of India, and comes as a formidable challenge to the overarching rule of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
The results indicate a possible change in the dynamics of Indian politics in the coming years.
A rejection of polarization:
The humiliating defeat that the BJP faced in Bihar is in no way ordinary. The party had launched an offensive against Nitish Kumar, who has emerged as a clean politician who changed the face of a ‘dreaded’ Bihar.
The BJP had left no stone unturned, including the use of polarizing religious rhetoric, to continue its spate of victories in various Indian states. Prime Minister Modi led the charge, spending much time campaigning at the lowest level.
In 2014, they won Haryana, Jharkhand and Maharashtra. It was called ‘Modi magic’. But the magic seems to have failed in Bihar.
Modi himself played the anti-Muslim card in Bihar, when he warned Dalits and Other Backwards Classes in the state that Nitish Kumar would take away their quotas and give them to “a particular community”.
His confidante and BJP president Amit Shah dragged Pakistan into the electoral battle, warning the people of Bihar that if his party would lose, crackers would go off in Pakistan in celebration.
These were calculated moves, but they failed to make an impact. But the last nail in the campaign’s coffin came from BJP’s fountainhead RSS, when its chief Mohan Baghwat threatened to do away with caste-based quotas altogether. The BJP and the RSS made an attempt at damage control, but in vain.
Narendra Modi played the anti-Muslim card and Amit Shah dragged Pakistan into the electoral battle
The Bihar elections had a backdrop different from the previous polls. The lynching of a Muslim in Uttar Pradesh because of suspicion that he had stored beef in his refrigerator, the killing of a number of Dalits, and a spree of provocative statements by the BJP and other right wing leaders had triggered a debate on intolerance in the country.
The prime minister maintained silence on all these issues, and it was seen as complicity on part of the government. This united the Muslims, Dalits and Other Backward Classes in favor of the Grand Alliance of Janata Dal (United), Rashtriya Janta Dal, and Congress. Even the Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen leader Asaduddin Owaisi could not cut the ice among Muslims, who silently chose to make the right use of their vote against communal forces.
The underlying message is clear – religion may no longer play an important role in electoral battles. The verdict indicates that people voted for development, but against Modi, who seems to have divided India along religious lines. The prime minister surprised the people of the state when he offered a development package of “Rs 1.25 lakh crore” days before the election. But it did not work.
Nitish as a national leader:
What may worry Modi now is the projection of Nitish Kumar as a leader at the national level.
The Grand Alliance has succeeded, and chief ministers of the past belonging to parties other than the Congress and BJP have rallied behind Nitish. That may have set alarm bells ringing for Modi, who could face Nitish Kumar as a competitor in Delhi in 2019.
It is clear that Rahul Gandhi does not have the strength to fight back the BJP, and Nitish may become a natural choice. He was already compared with Modi when the latter was the Gujarat chief minister. Nitish Kumar parted ways with the BJP only because he disagreed with bringing Modi to Delhi.
The election result in Bihar and subsequent changes in Indian politics must also be worrying for Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Mufti Mohammad Sayeed. After all, he legitimized Modi’s entry into Jammu and Kashmir, and declared him “not communal at all”, although he received a snub at the November 7 rally in Srinagar. Having assumed power with the popular Muslim vote in Kashmir and other Muslim majority areas of Jammu, Mufti played a gamble that even Nitish Kumar could not, much before Modi surfaced on the national scene.
Development must be inclusive:
While divisive politics have backfired for the BJP, Nitish Kumar’s exemplary governance has also played an important role in his victory. His image of a man of development helped make it possible for him to come back with a hat-trick. The BJP did not nominate a candidate for chief minister, thus making it a Modi-versus-Nitish election. That strategy failed miserably. Perhaps unaware of the fact that Modi had lost his sheen in his 18th-month-long rule, the party (rather the Modi-Amit duo) got carried away with the euphoria created around Modi’s election as Prime Minister and the subsequent victories in other states in 2014.
The outcome of the subsequent elections in other states may be different, but the Bihar polls have shattered many illusions about electoral politics in India.
Divisive politics are not acceptable to all Indians. Real development is only possible when it is inclusive. Bihar has shown a new way to the people of India.
The author is a veteran journalist from Srinagar and the editor-in-chief of
Rising Kashmir
Email: shujaat7867@gmail.com