Even after 40 years of its launch, the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) is unable to leave any mark on the process of regionalism. Unlike the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), which was established in 1967 and recently held its 47th summit in Kuala Lumpur, SAARC, formed in 1985, is in limbo. The 19th SAARC summit, which was scheduled to be held in Islamabad in November 2016, failed to take place because it was boycotted by Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan and India. Reviving SAARC is a major challenge for 1.8 billion people of South Asia because, without viable regional cooperation, South Asia would remain behind other regions of the world in key indicators of human development.
Why has SAARC been in limbo for the last few decades, and how can it be revitalised in order to promote regional trade, commerce, travel and meaningful cooperation in other fields like education, science and technology, environment, energy and water? Will SAARC remain dormant as long as Narendra Modi, the Indian Prime Minister, is in power? How has the Indian policy to isolate Pakistan in South Asia derailed regional cooperation, and what can be done to restore the viability of SAARC? Why has the potential in SAARC to ameliorate the present and future of billions of people of South Asia not been utilised? What are the prospects for pulling SAARC from stagnation and revitalising its functioning? These are the questions asked by those who are concerned about the failures of SAARC and the dismal prospects of its revival.
Composed of Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, the idea of SAARC originated in 1977–78 when the then President of Bangladesh, Zia-ur-Rehman, during his visit to South Asian countries, mooted his proposal for regional cooperation. The first meeting of South Asian foreign secretaries was held in 1981, and in 1983, a regional foreign ministers’ conference was held, leading to the formation of SAARC in Dhaka in December 1985. The idea to promote regional cooperation in South Asia got an impetus from the European Economic Community and ASEAN.
The earlier record of SAARC in fostering regional cooperation was quite impressive because it established various integrated programmes of action in areas like tourism, civil aviation, agriculture and rural development, health and population activities, women, youth and children, science and technology, environment and natural disasters. SAARC also established specialised bodies like the SAARC Development Fund, SAARC Disaster Management Centre, SAARC Food Bank, SAARC Arbitration Council, SAARC Chamber of Commerce and Industry and SAARC Law.
SAARC is in limbo because India, as the dominant country of the region, is not interested in strengthening the process of regional cooperation
SAARC also did pioneering work in combating terrorism, controlling drug trafficking, and meeting water and energy shortfalls. It launched programmes to promote regional economic cooperation by establishing the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) and South Asian Preferential Trade Arrangements (SAPTA), but both initiatives failed to take off because of the inability of SAARC members, particularly India and Pakistan, to keep trade away from politics.
Based in Kathmandu, SAARC was termed a promising endeavour to follow models of regional cooperation in South East Asia and Europe. Until 2014, SAARC summits were held regularly, but taking advantage of the Uri incident, India decided to boycott the 19th SAARC summit, which was scheduled to be held in Islamabad in November 2016. In order to isolate Pakistan from South Asia, India promoted the idea of sub-regional cooperation composed of Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Sri Lanka and Thailand (BIMSTEC). To deny Pakistan an opportunity to host the 19th SAARC summit, India used its influence in Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Bhutan not to attend the summit in Islamabad. By pursuing such an approach, Narendra Modi damaged SAARC.
Following the monsoon revolution in Bangladesh in August 2024, the caretaker government led by Chief Adviser Dr Mohammad Yunus supported the revival of SAARC. Likewise, Nepal and Sri Lanka also favour the holding of the much-awaited SAARC summit. But the Modi regime is unwilling to support the holding of the 19th SAARC summit in Islamabad because of its contentious issues with Pakistan. As a result, SAARC remains in limbo.
To marginalise Pakistan’s role in SAARC, India is trying to take advantage of its geographical location. India has borders with all the SAARC member countries except Afghanistan, the Maldives and Sri Lanka. It has 77% of the population, area and resources of South Asia. Power asymmetry in SAARC is a fundamental reason for its failure to emerge as a viable regional organisation. India’s dominant position in SAARC and its ambition to impose its tutelage are, however, contested by Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka. India views Pakistan as a threat in SAARC, challenging New Delhi’s power ambitions in the region.
Regional cooperation cannot take off unless all members of SAARC possess the political will and determination to implement programmes that aim to promote economic cooperation, free visa travel and so forth. Ironically, unlike ASEAN, which has 65% trade among its members, and the European Union, which has 55% trade within member countries, trade among SAARC countries is hardly 10%. If the formative phase of SAARC was a source of inspiration for other countries, its failure to keep up the momentum led to its decline.
SAARC is in limbo because India, as the dominant country of the region, is not interested in strengthening the process of regional cooperation. Against this background, one needs to examine the erosion of SAARC from three directions. First, SAARC’s asymmetrical power structure is a cause of its poor performance. India’s dominant position in SAARC and its record of denying any other member a role that challenges New Delhi tend to make this regional organisation stagnant.
Since the Modi regime is not willing to drop its opposition to the holding of the 19th SAARC summit in Islamabad, the only hope to pull SAARC from stagnation is by including China as a full member
It means India, under the Modi government, is not interested in the viability of SAARC as a regional organisation. India’s main thrust in the last two decades has been to marginalise Pakistan’s role in SAARC. Its refusal to attend the 19th SAARC summit to be held in Islamabad provides ample evidence of India’s lack of commitment to pulling this regional organisation from its current impasse.
Second, other members of SAARC have recently called to end stagnation and revive the process of regional organisation. But their voices are not taken seriously by New Delhi. The role of the SAARC Secretary-General is also ineffective. Nepal, which since 2014 holds the chairmanship of SAARC, has also not done much to break the stalemate. India has used the clause in the SAARC Charter that all decisions must be made with consensus, and the mandatory participation of all members of SAARC in summits or meetings is counterproductive.
Finally, the only way to pull SAARC from its existing inertia is to include China as its full member. Currently, China has borders with many SAARC members and holds observer status. If it is admitted as a full member, it can certainly make SAARC functional and ensure power symmetry. India’s possible objection to China’s membership in SAARC needs to be countered by other members.
China is the second global economic power and has strong trade relations with all the countries of South Asia. Its inclusion in SAARC will go a long way in creating a power balance and providing an opportunity for other SAARC members to make use of Beijing’s enormous capacity to make heavy investments in the region and help modernise South Asia’s infrastructure. Other members of SAARC must adopt a professional approach to promote regional cooperation by augmenting political will and determination and pursuing a forward-looking approach.
Since the Modi regime is not willing to drop its opposition to the holding of the 19th SAARC summit in Islamabad, the only hope to pull SAARC from stagnation is by including China as a full member. A vision for a prosperous South Asia, by following an inclusive approach, is the only way to ensure the success of SAARC. Creative and innovative thinking and approach, particularly by India, is the need of the hour.