To blunt Modi’s campaign against dynasts, especially against India’s first political family -- Gandhi-Nehrus – the Congress has announced presidential elections after 22 years. Rahul Gandhi, the scion of the Gandhi family, who could have been a natural choice, has chosen to stay away, and allow a non-Gandhi to contest the elections. The party’s senior Dalit leader, Mallikarjun Kharge, is pitted against the leading author and world-renowned diplomat Shashi Tharoor to claim the top post.
Rahul Gandhi’s decision to undertake a mass contact programme by marching 3,000 kilometres from Kanyakumari to Kashmir is yet another step to revive the party.
Political observers say these shrewd antics may help Rahul Gandhi as in case of another defeat, the non-Gandhi president will be held responsible and in case of victory, his mass contact programme will be given credit, thus allowing him an easy comeback.
Rahul’s great ancestors -- Motilal Nehru, Jawaharlal Nehru, Indira Gandhi, Rajiv Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi -- have all been presidents of the Congress Party.
Analysts say, Rahul, who began the march on September 7, understands that it is a do-or-die political moment for the Gandhi dynasty.
Rahul’s performance will also have a cascading effect on India’s relations with neighbours, Pakistan and Bangladesh, where the dominant parties are led by dynasties.
Rahul quit the post of president in 2019, after the party's poor performance in the Lok Sabha elections. Since then, Sonia Gandhi has been the acting chairperson of the party. By announcing elections, the Congress party has also sent across a strong message that it believes in the idea of internal democracy.
Congress’ immediate challenge
But the immediate challenge for the party is that ahead of the 2024 general elections, it is facing assembly elections in nine states, where except in Telangana, it is directly pitted against the BJP. Among these states are Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh as well, where it is in power. In case, it loses these states, the Congress will be rejected by the opposition and secular regional parties as well, who are thinking of forming a collective front to contest the 2024 elections. The Congress will not be able to claim the leadership of this alliance.
Talking to The Friday Times, Delhi-based political analyst Abhay Kumar said that by keeping out of the presidential race, the Gandhi family has now thrown a challenge to the senior party leaders who have been critical of Rahul’s leadership ability and have been demanding a non-Gandhi to assume the role.
More than 20 senior Congress leaders, including Kapil Sibal, Anand Sharma, Shashi Tharoor, Manish Tiwari and Ghulam Nabi Azaz, had requested Sonia Gandhi in 2020 to strengthen the party by bring changing the leadership. This group is popularly known as G-23.
Political observers say these shrewd antics may help Rahul Gandhi as in case of another defeat, the non-Gandhi president will be held responsible and in case of victory, his mass contact programme will be given credit, thus allowing him an easy comeback.
Party insiders say that the senior Congress leadership was not happy with Rahul Gandhi’s style of functioning and had been pressing for a non-Gandhi party leader. With Sonia Gandhi throwing her weight behind Kharge, this same disgruntled senior leadership that was demanding a change is now backing her decision. It appears that the verdict is out even before the election that is due on October 17. They have dumped Tharoor who is also a member of G-23, and are backing Sonia's candidate.
The party insiders also feel that Rahul’s decision to not contest the election is going to further strengthen the position of the Gandhi family in the party. “This presidential election is a window experiment. If the experiment succeeds, it will develop a new mechanism. If not, then, the leadership will remain with the family irrespective of who is their president or their prime ministerial candidate,” said analyst Bilal Sabzwari, who has been covering the Congress Party for over a decade.
In any of the above scenarios, the power will continue to rest with the family.
Despite criticism from the BJP, which has been targeting the Nehru Gandhi family for engaging in dynasty politics, it is hard to imagine a Congress without the dynasty.
The political dynasties’ tutorial
It is the success of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty that acts as a tutorial for political dynasties in Pakistan and Bangladesh.
The Congress Party was founded in 1885 by British civil servant, A.O. Hume, Dadabhai Naoroji and S. Subramania Iyer. Jawaharlal’s father, Motilal Nehru, joined the Congress a few years later. The party was established along the lines of political parties that fought to establish democracy in Europe, where political parties have internal democracies and provide opportunities to every political worker to claim the top post.
When India attained independence, Mahatma Gandhi suggested to Jawaharlal Nehru to dissolve the party as its goal of gaining independence has been achieved. But Nehru continued to use the Congress as its political vehicle.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi never misses an opportunity to target the Nehru-Gandhi family for promoting dynasty politics. But those who have seen the Congress from close quarters say that even the dynast has to struggle to reach the top. At the time of Nehru’s death, the Congress was headed by S Nijalingappa. Senior leaders, including S. Nijalingappa, Morarji Desai and Atulya Ghosh wanted to keep Indira out. So much so that Indira had to break away from the Congress syndicate to form a separate party, before she could merge the two groups a few years later.
“Even Sonia had to face resistance from the likes of Sharad Pawar and P.V. Narasimha Rao. When Rahul was made the chief. He came up with fresh ideas to revamp the Congress. But old schoolboys, which include the G-23 members, did not like it. It was the senior party men who challenged Rahul’s competency before the opposition started calling him ‘Pappu’,” adds Sabzwari.
Like Bilawal Bhutto Zardari and Maryam Nawaz in Pakistan, Rahul was also born with a silver spoon, but unlike his peers, he was not able to convert his lineage into an electoral victory.
According to senior Pakistani journalist Nusrat Javeed, it was because of these dynasties that the countries of the subcontinent could establish successful democracies. “The families that are now looked upon as political dynasties have played an important role in fighting for freedom and establishing democracy in their region -- be it Nehru’s, Bhutto’s or Sheikh Mujibur Rehman's in Bangladesh.”
“The assassination of Benazir Bhutto is still fresh in the minds of Pakistani voters. They have a soft corner for Bhuttos. However, Rahul has no such recent tragedy at hand”.
The march is on
Like Rahul Gandhi, Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari also undertook a long march in Pakistan earlier this year. Bhutto's march arguably worked as a catalyst in bringing down the Imran Khan government.
Javeed feels that the young dynasts have a future only if they continue to keep their ears to the ground. He added, “The assassination of Benazir Bhutto is still fresh in the minds of Pakistani voters. They have a soft corner for Bhuttos. However, Rahul has no such recent tragedy at hand”.
When Indira Gandhi was assassinated, Rajiv won sympathies and votes of people. After Rajiv’s assassination, the Congress could retain power for almost 15 years. But, fortunately or unfortunately, Rahul does not have any such tragedy behind him to help him revive the party.
“In Pakistan after Benazir’s assassination, her party won and remained in power between 2008 and 13. Benazir’s tragedy is still fresh and so is Bilawal’s popularity,” said Javeed.
The rising middle class and its growing interest in the political system are appearing as a challenge to dynasts. They can no more just lure voters based on their family lineage. They need to reinvent themselves.
Ibn Khaldun’s theory
While discussing the fate of dynasties, famous historian and sociologist Ibn Khaldun mentioned that the glory of a dynasty seldom lasts beyond four generations and that the downfall of a dynasty is embedded in the very process of its rise.
Whereas the first generation is inclined towards conquest, the second towards administration, the third is freed of the necessity to conquer or administer, and the fourth flounders wealth and human capital earned by their ancestors.
Rahul is the fourth generation of the Gandhi-Nehru family. In contrast, Bilawal is the third generation and Maryam Nawaz is only the second generation. Therefore, while applying Ibn Khaldun's logic, their chances to remain in active politics and succeed are more than Rahul's.