On April 13, 2024, in an unprecedented and unusually long essay, the largest Urdu daily, 'Jang,' praised the Modi regime under the headline, 'Why Modi as Prime Minister for the third time? The perception of progress changed in 10 years, lifting India out of poverty,' read the article, recording a long list of accomplished achievements. Recently, like other parts of the world, people in Pakistan enthusiastically watched the pre-marriage activities of a super-rich businessman’s son from India like the landing of Indian spacecraft Chandrayaan-3 on the moon a year ago. Many emerging businessmen in India are regarded as cronies of India’s fascist regime under Modi. Even older corporate groups like Tata, whose market value currently stands at $365 billion, surpassing Pakistan's GDP of $341 billion, have acquiesced to Modi’s Hindutva program. Under Modi's BJP regime, India has surpassed economic powers such as the UK, rising from eleventh place in 2010 when Modi assumed power, to become the fifth-largest economy today. Forecasts estimate India's economic growth rate to reach as high as 8.4% this year.
According to the World Bank, in 2024–25, the South Asian region remains the fastest-growing economically, with India, Bangladesh, and Bhutan leading at 6.4%, 5.8%, and 4.6% respectively. Meanwhile, other countries in the region, including Pakistan, are struggling to recover from an economic downturn. Pakistani media has been comparing the economic development in Pakistan with India and Bangladesh, as Pakistan's textile and garments industry often compares the energy prices and facilities provided by the Indian and Bangladeshi governments to their capitalist classes.
Compelling alternatives to an export-oriented economy scarcely exist in the aftermath of the dawn of the neoliberal era and globalization.
What's happening in India under a fascist regime is a microcosm of a larger schema: Pakistani elites see their development in the mirror of Indian and Chinese economic development. However, analyses from the World Bank and ADB’s recently issued reports about Pakistan should make it clear that the prospects aren’t so rosy, as has often been claimed by the country’s ruling elites.
However, the dark side of the fascist and authoritarian regimes in India and Bangladesh, let alone China, hardly comes into discussion in the media or in widely circulated memes in Pakistan. Data shows that average monthly wages in India have stagnated at around INR 20,000 for five years, while during the same period, real wages decreased by 25%. Indian capitalists received considerable support from the Modi regime, with lower agricultural product prices to ease pressure on wages. However, this led to increased pressure on the farming sector, resulting in resistance from farmers in various states, particularly in the Punjab region.
Economists have recently noted that development disparity has widened the gulf between the relatively underdeveloped North, more receptive to BJP fascism, compared to developed South India, threatening the stability of India, similar to the situation in Pakistan during the so-called era of development under the Ayub regime in the 1960s.
Since 2009, under the authoritarian regime of Hasina Wajid, Bangladesh's capital stock expanded considerably with export-oriented growth, according to Time, 'GDP rising from $71 billion in 2006 to $460 billion in 2022, making it South Asia’s second largest economy after India,' with little improvement in social indicators. Bangladesh's garment industry, comprising 3,500 factories and driving 85% of the country's $55 billion annual exports, is a key global supplier for major fashion brands like Levi's, Marks & Spencer, and H&M. Despite this, the sector's four million predominantly female workers endure dire conditions, with monthly pay starting at a meager 8,300 taka ($75), far below what's considered a living wage. Recent protests erupted across the capital as negotiations for a new minimum wage unfolded. The government's proposed increase to 12,500 Taka (£90), in December last year, falls short of workers' demands for 23,000 Taka, sparking mass demonstrations and highlighting the persistent struggle for fair wages in Bangladesh's vital garment industry.
At present, Pakistani elites find themselves in a very difficult situation with no easy way out—some problems emanate from global capitalism and geopolitics, while others relate to foreign and internal policies.
Apart from economic growth, Pakistan is also far behind the rest of South Asia in terms of efficiency, productivity, and innovation: in the Global Competitiveness Report 2020, Pakistan dropped three spots to 110th out of 140 countries, compared to its 107th position in 2018. Pakistan's productivity, as per APO’s Productivity Databook 2019, lags behind other nations, with growth at only 1.4% annually from 2000 to 2017, compared to 3.9% in Bangladesh, 5.8% in India, and 8.5% in China. The NPO attributes this to the declining share of the primary sector in GDP and slow export growth. Industrial and agriculture sectors' contributions dropped from 21% and 19% in 2017-18 to 20.3% and 18.5% in 2018-19. Stagnant exports reflect a lack of innovation, sophistication, and rising per-unit costs.
At present, Pakistani elites find themselves in a very difficult situation with no easy way out—some problems emanate from global capitalism and geopolitics, while others relate to foreign and internal policies. Situated in a region where neighboring countries like Afghanistan and Iran face international sanctions, Pakistan encounters obstacles in enhancing trade and bilateral relations. On the other hand, it has two great neighboring nations, India and China, the so-called motors of global capitalism and giants—in terms of area, population, economy, and military. Internally, Pakistan strives to create a conducive atmosphere for its capital to grow, aiming to conduct economically friendly activities in production and exports and manage militancy originating from its bids for appropriate natural resources between the Indus and Durand Line and border with Iran, comprising parts especially in Balochistan, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
However, the ruling classes are bitterly divided on the way forward, and are therefore unable to carve out an easy quick fix in the short term while losing out on long-term planning. Pakistani ruling elites struggle to breathe as the world economy enters a crisis after COVID-19 and, on the other hand, witness the rise of capitalist growth and development in South Asian countries under the fascist and authoritarian regimes of India and Bangladesh. It is not that Pakistani elites are myopic or have not skillfully tried to navigate these difficulties—apparently running to catch the rest—however, they have proven to struggle if not failed, at least for the last five years, to find a viable solution and way out.
Recently, the Pakistani ruling classes committed themselves to breaking new ground and improving the economy, adopting any measures possible under the new high-profile Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC). The SIFC set out to explore new avenues for investment and economic revival. Nevertheless, according to Pakistani economic experts, compelling alternatives to an export-oriented economy scarcely exist in the aftermath of the dawn of the neoliberal era and globalization.
The government established after the political settlement resulting from the rigged election of 2024, as reported in national and international media, lacks legitimacy and public support, especially in regions like Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where insurgency in the form of mass movements and militancy is on the rise.
Many of these problems have built up over decades, but neither the politicians nor the establishment has been able to get to grips with them. In the 2024 elections, the ruling elites come full circle from where they started in 2013: none of the forces could disentangle themselves from the straitjacket of conspiracy, in the process, destabilizing the whole process and precluding any serious work for sustainable economic revival, except obviously the continuous pouring of money in elites’ pockets, to the tune of $17.4 billion annually through various kind of subsidies.
This situation cannot be sustained for long; it must reflect the economic development, particularly that which is taking place in neighboring India and China. The Indian economy’s size has grown in conjunction with the Indian state’s regional influence.
One of my friends at the World Bank recently informed me that countries like Nepal and Bhutan are completely dependent on India for almost everything, while another friend mentioned that within SAARC, there are two prominent countries: India and Pakistan, with the others being considered satellite states of India. Pakistan's influence has diminished in the region considerably, as tensions escalated with Afghanistan following a recent attack on alleged Pakistani Taliban hideouts and the forced repatriation of Afghan refugees. Controlling insurgency in Baluchistan and Pakhtunkhwa, and facing an economic downturn, as the establishment still struggles to overcome and comprehend the populist support for imprisoned Imran Khan and his Tehreek-e-Insaf, seem like uphill tasks.
Fascism in India, as Jairus Banaji pointed out, began to take hold gradually from 1992 onwards, culminating in the rise of Narendra Modi as Prime Minister of India in 2014, marking its initial stage. Prior to becoming PM, as Chief Minister of Gujarat, Modi had to prove that under his leadership, Indian capital could grow more rapidly compared to the government under the Congress. It was the Congress government that initiated neoliberal policies, also propelled by communists in various states. However, the Congress and the communists could only suppress and exploit local communities, peasants, and workers to a certain level. Nevertheless, these policies helped create an ecology for fascism, a conducive environment in which Indian fascism could thrive.
Fascism represents a unique scenario in which capital—under pressure from external and internal forces such as global capitalism and geopolitics on one hand, and internal alignments of class, ethnic, religious forces on the other hand—is left with no alternative but to abandon democracy or dictatorship and resort to extreme forms of governance.
In this process, the BJP regime under Modi also contributed to this ecology significantly by mobilizing organized groups of petty bourgeoisie Hindus of the RSS against Muslims, Christians, and lower Hindu castes to divide society to such extremes, where collective opposition to suppression and exploitation becomes difficult. The Modi regime thereby established a mutual relationship between the state (Parliament, bureaucratic administration and judiciary) and society (middle classes and petite bourgeoisie) with the assistance of the BJP cadre and leadership.
Fascism transcends mere authoritarianism, racial nationalism, or a religious regime, as often presented in various studies. Instead, it represents a unique scenario in which capital—under pressure from external and internal forces such as global capitalism and geopolitics on one hand, and internal alignments of class, ethnic, religious forces on the other hand—is left with no alternative but to abandon democracy or dictatorship and resort to extreme forms of governance, as we are witnessing in India.
While the current Pakistani regime is striving for economic stability under the SIFC, it faces a challenge due to the appealing propaganda of economic development in India, Bangladesh, and even Afghanistan, which attracts the middle classes. As a result, it demands significant efforts from ruling elites to counter this narrative, which is currently lacking. They may need to adopt similar strategies in response to the ongoing political and economic crisis, which is currently characterized by confusion, weakness, and vacillation. The government established after the political settlement resulting from the rigged election of 2024, as reported in national and international media, lacks legitimacy and public support, especially in regions like Baluchistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where insurgency in the form of mass movements and militancy is on the rise.
Additionally, uneasiness and resentment have resulted from massive exploitation and inflation in economic hubs like Karachi, Lahore, and Faisalabad. Although Pakistani elites are on the verge of successfully acquiring another bailout from the IMF, the Pakistani economy is facing daunting challenges, and above all, there seems to be no end in sight. In this situation, the specter of an authoritarian regime like that of Hasina Wajid in Bangladesh or a fascist regime like that under Modi in India looms large.