India’s rise was fast-tracked by Western support, but that backing nudged it onto a precarious trajectory. Emboldened by external favors, it clamped down on shared water resources, fanned hypernationalism, and locked itself into an arms race that drained its economic and strategic bandwidth. For years, it brushed aside concerns about growing internal disparities, banking on the idea that sustained Western backing would keep it afloat. But as that support starts to dry up, the cracks are widening—internal cohesion is fraying, economic vulnerabilities are piling up, and regional tensions are flaring. What once seemed like an unstoppable ascent is now running up against hard limits, exposing India to the very instability it once sought to control.
Partition positioned India as the dominant force in South Asia, leaving Pakistan boxed into hydrological dependence. The Indus Waters Treaty, long sold as a peace framework, was, in practice, a tool that let India tighten its grip on upstream flows. Over time, it turned water into a political weapon, gradually wearing down Pakistan’s agricultural and ecological balance. By holding onto its control over the western rivers and steadily chipping away at natural water flows, India ensured that its neighbors remained vulnerable. But this strategy is now coming back to bite—it overplayed its hand, and the fallout is beginning to set in. Reckless damming, over-extraction, and mismanagement have stretched India’s water reserves thin, raising alarms about long-term sustainability. What was once a strategic edge has spiraled into a looming crisis that could shake India’s internal stability.
The threat doesn’t end at home. Just as India tightened its grip on the Indus, China has moved in to press its advantage over the Brahmaputra, planning massive dam projects that could drastically alter downstream flows into India’s northeastern states. By plowing ahead with hydropower and diversion plans, Beijing is signaling that it is ready to turn the tables, using the same playbook that India once relied on against Pakistan. If China follows through, India will be left scrambling to deal with the fallout, as water shortages could stoke internal unrest and economic disruptions in regions that already feel marginalised. New Delhi can no longer afford to look the other way—it must rethink its approach to regional water management before it is forced into a corner.
By taking the lead on transboundary water governance, India can turn water from a flashpoint into a unifying force, moving beyond great-power rivalries to build a South Asia that stands on its own
Economically, India’s over-reliance on Western support is unraveling. Years of foreign investment and preferential trade deals papered over deeper structural flaws, but they never truly fixed them. Manufacturing never took off as expected, capital is slipping away, and rising debt is closing in. The much-touted “demographic dividend” is quickly turning into a liability as youth unemployment skyrockets. Meanwhile, Hindutva-fueled nationalism has boxed India into an ideological corner, turning social cohesion into a distant dream. The deepening religious and social divides are beginning to eat away at the country’s stability, eroding investor confidence and driving capital flight. Once, Western capitals brushed off concerns about India’s democratic backsliding, but now they are calling it out, forcing India onto the defensive in global forums.
Militarily, India is overstretched and struggling to keep up. The standoff with China in the Himalayas drags on, Pakistan has recalibrated its strategic posture, and Bangladesh’s shifting diplomacy has thrown New Delhi off balance. Even in the Indian Ocean, where India once believed it could call the shots, China is steadily muscling in, outpacing India’s influence and tying up key regional partnerships. As Beijing rolls out its Belt and Road Initiative with infrastructure projects across South Asia, India is being pushed to the sidelines. The cost of this arms race is bleeding India’s economy while leaving it more isolated than ever.
To break free from this downward spiral, India needs to rethink its regional strategy. Instead of doubling down on failed power plays, it must shift gears and lead the way in sustainable water management. A cooperative water-sharing framework could help India win over its neighbors, unlocking economic integration and regional stability. Reviving inland navigation routes, expanding hydropower trade, and upgrading transboundary river governance would not only defuse tensions but also shore up India’s economic resilience.
China’s planned damming of the Brahmaputra is a wake-up call—if India continues shutting out its neighbours from water-sharing agreements, it risks being on the receiving end of the same treatment. New Delhi must reach out to its regional counterparts, not necessarily to counterbalance China but to build a cooperative framework that strengthens its long-term security. By taking the lead on transboundary water governance, India can turn water from a flashpoint into a unifying force, moving beyond great-power rivalries to build a South Asia that stands on its own.
If India fails to pivot, however, the same forces that once propped it up could end up hastening its fall. The erosion of water security, coupled with economic strain and military overextension, could leave India boxed in with no easy way out. The question is no longer whether India can keep rising—it’s whether it can stop itself from running aground.