How Sane Are The Minds Whose Finger Rests On The Nuclear Button?

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In today’s world, where nine countries are involved in the development of nuclear weapons, the risk of a catastrophic nuclear war looms large

2024-07-15T21:44:45+05:00 Syed Atiq ul Hassan

Concerns about United States (US) President Joe Biden's potential mental decline, memory loss, and cognitive disorders not only worry the citizens of the US but also a cause for alarm for the entire world, given the authority he holds over the nuclear launch codes.

US television talk shows and social media platforms have become increasingly harsh and critical, often targeting celebrities. Currently, at 81 years old, President Joe Biden is in the spotlight. Since the first live debate between President Biden and former President Donald Trump, the US media has frequently portrayed Biden negatively in television talk shows and column write-ups.

[Fox News]' body language expert, Susan Constantine, described Biden's performance in the debate against Trump as akin to "a dead man walking." According to Mary Kay Linge, a writer for the [New York Post], polls indicate that Joe Biden is the least popular president in 70 years, with ratings even lower than Nixon and Carter. His approval rating stands at 38.7%, which is three percent lower than George H. W. Bush, according to Gallup polls. Jennifer Agiesta, Director of Polling and Election Analytics at [CNN], reports that Biden's polls reflect a six-point deficit behind Donald Trump.

In today’s world, where nine countries— the United States of America (US), China, Russia, France, the United Kingdom, Pakistan, India, Israel, along with North Korea and Iran potentially joining—are involved in the development of nuclear weapons. They thus pose the biggest risk of a catastrophic nuclear war. The US and China are already at odds over the sovereignty of Taiwan. The US, Europe, and Russia are entangled in the ongoing war in Ukraine. India and Pakistan have a longstanding dispute over Kashmir. All these nations possess nuclear weapons, including highly dangerous long-range missiles.

In this alarming context, it is crucial that the heads of state of these nuclear-armed countries are physically and mentally fit and capable of making extraordinary decisions with a clear and rational mindset for the sake of world peace. While age itself may not be an issue, leaders must be fully capable of handling complex political affairs with patience, wisdom, and the ability to thoroughly analyse the consequences of any action. The President of the US, who is also the Commander-in-chief of its military, has the sole constitutional power to launch nuclear weapons against any enemy country. Given that President Joe Biden has shown signs of memory loss and cognitive disorder, his actions could pose a risk to global stability and peace.

Mr. Biden’s health issues were not so apparent until his first election campaign debate with Donald Trump. He has been dealing with physical and mental challenges for the last couple of years, which his staff and the Democrats kept under wraps. It wasn't until the live debate on June 27 that the seriousness of Mr Biden's condition became visible to people in the United States and around the world. Now, it is up to the Democrats to decide whether he should continue participating in the November election or be replaced by another candidate. Policymakers and strategic planners within the US establishment are worried and urgently seeking a solution from US politicians. Unfortunately, at present, neither Joe Biden nor Donald Trump are seen as ideal leaders of the world's most powerful country on the global stage.

In June 2024, the 92nd Annual Conference of Mayors was held in Kansas City, Missouri. The conference's agenda was ‘The Imperative of Dialogue in a Time of Acute Dangers’. Several issues surrounding this theme were discussed at this conference, and the participants shared their thoughts.

As long as nuclear weapons exist, it will always be the right time to think concretely and constructively about how we will eliminate them forever

Mayors for Peace, founded in 1982 and led by the Mayors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, works for a world without nuclear weapons, safe and resilient cities, and a culture of peace. Since May 1, 2024, this anti-nuclear platform has grown to 8,389 cities in 166 countries and territories, with 227 US members.

The Russian war of aggression on Ukraine, with its attendant nuclear threats, brings into sharp focus the increasing risks of nuclear war by accident, miscalculation, or crisis escalation, making disarmament that much more urgent. An intensifying array of antagonisms among nuclear-armed governments is happening in North-East Asia, the South China Sea, South Asia, and the Middle East. Even those in nuclear-armed governments at war who do not believe the time is ripe to negotiate the end of hostilities should recognise the value of talking to their adversaries at every opportunity about limiting the most dangerous of all weapons and ensuring that they will never be used, using diplomacy wherever possible to create momentum for de-escalation of hostilities.

Participants also shared their thoughts and fears that as long as nuclear weapons exist, it will always be the right time to think concretely and constructively about how we will eliminate them forever.

On the other hand, all nuclear-armed states are qualitatively and, in some cases, quantitatively upgrading their nuclear arsenals, and a new multipolar arms race is underway. This will further drift the world towards total nuclear disaster and potentially bring about the end of human civilisation.

Global military spending in 2023 reached a record high, with the US spending more than the next nine countries combined, nearly eight and a half times more than Russia and three times more than China, accounting for 37% of the total global expenditure on arms. The US plans to spend $2 trillion over the next 30 years to maintain and modernise its nuclear triad, building new ballistic missile submarines, new silo-based intercontinental ballistic missiles, a new nuclear cruise missile, a modified gravity bomb, a new stealthy long-range strike bomber, and accompanying warheads for each delivery system, with modified or new plutonium pits.

The Mayors for Peace Conference encourages the US government to pursue any offer made in good faith to negotiate a treaty among nuclear powers, barring any country from being the first to use nuclear weapons against one another. The Conference emphasized that the US government should make good-faith efforts to reduce tensions with the government of the People’s Republic of China, seeking opportunities for cooperation on global issues such as the environment, public health, and equitable development, and new approaches to control nuclear arms. The Conference of Mayors welcomes the September 10, 2023, Declaration of the G20 Leaders meeting in Delhi, including leaders or foreign ministers of China, France, India, Russia, the UK, and the US, that “The threat of use or use of nuclear weapons is inadmissible.”

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