What truly sets Quetta apart from other cities of Pakistan is its preference to vote for regional parties over national parties in the elections. Quetta is the site where many nationalist and ideological movements were born and its public has shown inclination for ideology of a party rather than just the face value of a candidate. Contrary to the rest of Balochistan, where only sardars (landlords) dominate, Quetta has, over time, produced middle class leaders that reflect its demographic and economic populace.
If ever one had to present arguments against parliamentary representative democracy, the province of Balochistan would serve as a great example. Abdul Qadoos Bazingo won elections in his constituency with only 544 votes and went on to become the chief minister of the province. To put this in perspective, a man can receive votes from the number of people who can comfortably fit in a 747 flight with seats to spare and rule an area and a population similar to Rawanda. This, however, is no anomaly since the chief minister before him, Sanaullah Zehri, got only 9,400 votes and before that, Dr Abdul Malik Baloch received 4,539 votes. The number of votes that might not be sufficient to get one elected to a local council seat in Karachi are enough to elevate a person to the top leadership position in Balochistan. This is a major reason why it is commonly believed that elections in Balochistan are engineered by extraneous forces and often lack public support and credibility.
However, there is silver lining for democracy in Quetta - the only place in Balochistan where elections are contested with zeal and a belief that elections will be won by popular vote. This can be seen in the election turnout - it is rarely above 20 percent in the rest of the province but in Quetta, the turnout is usually above 30 percent. Quetta now has a population of 2.2 million and after the 2018 delimitation, the city has been allocated three seats of the National Assembly and nine seats of the provincial assembly. These few seats might be the only seats in Balochistan where a relatively free and fair elections can be expected in 2018.
Quetta has a population of 2.2 million and after the 2018 delimitation, the city has been allocated three seats of the National Assembly and nine seats of the provincial assembly
Saryab, the ideological hub of Quetta, is considered the gateway to the city and has a very strong presence of Baloch nationalists, with Balochistan Nationalist Party Mengal (BNP-Mengal) being the strongest. Religious parties like Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam Fazal (JUI-F) also tend to dominate. This region has been generally ignored by larger federal parties of Pakistan due to its strong affiliation with regional politics. Even the newly-created king’s party - Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) - is unlikely to secure more than 3,000 votes in this area. Its National Assembly seat is NA-266 and the provincial seats are PB 30, 31 and 32 which were evenly split by the Election Commission of Pakistan in a recent delimitation. The entire region is dominated by the Baloch, with the Shahwani tribe being the most influential in this area.
Nevertheless, PB-30 is an exception and holds a Pashtun majority, giving Pashtun nationalists a fighting chance. At present, JUI-F, which holds an unwavering electoral vote bank - is in talks with the Baloch nationalists parties (BNP and NP) for seat adjustments. Whereas JUI-F itself has fielded its own general secretary Molana Ghafoor Haideri for the MNA seat and their star speaker, Hafiz Hussain Ahmed, in one of the provincial seats, they may have done so to extract a better deal in seat adjustments. It is the opinion of the scribe that eventually BNP-Mengal will be able to secure the National Assembly seat for its candidate Agha Hasan Baloch through seat adjustments with JUI F which will involve 400,000 registered voters - making it the largest national assembly seat of Balochistan. The provincial assembly seats will likely be split between BNP and JUI-F with Pashtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (PKMAP) having a chance in case there is in infighting between the BNP and NP.
What people generally call Quetta is the main National Assembly seat known as Quetta City NA-265 with 300,000 registered voters. It encompasses PB 27, 28 and 29. Voters in this area are educated and there is demographic split of 50 percent Pashtuns and 50 percent members of other ethnic communities - Baloch, Hazaras, Tajiks and settlers from the Punjab. Amongst the Pashtuns, the most influential family is also the oldest family of Quetta known as the Kasi tribe which was instrumental in the previous elections when Quetta city was swept away by Pakhtoonkhawa Milli Awami Party (PKMAP). However, this year due to their dismal performance in governance, many PkMAP voters have already joined other parties. PkMAP is still an option for many voters but only because other parties have not yet fielded strong candidates yet.
This scribe is of the opinion that one provincial seat will go to the new BAP’s Tahir Mehmood Khan who is a favourite amongst the settlers in Quetta. The remaining two seats will have a strong competition between PKMAP, Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI), BNP and JUI-F with the results hinging on election alliances. PTI was the runner up in the previous elections and in all likelihood this result will be repeated with Mahmood Khan Achakzai winning the National Assembly seat again over PTI’s candidate.
The final electoral region of Quetta is NA-264 which includes the peripheral areas of Kuchlaq, Nawa Qilli, Baleli, Nosar, Panjpai and the Western Bypass with the provincial constituencies of PB 24, 25 and 26 falling in this constituency. One of the strongest candidates within this area is Manzoor Kakar of BAP who is sure to secure a seat in PB-25. Another strong candidate most likely for PB-26 is Haji Abdul Wahid Agha of JUI-Nazriati who was the runner up last time and since then has garnered considerable support. This region will also have candidates from PKMAP, JUI-F, PTI and BAP for other seats. The winner of the NA seat is likely to be JUI-F’s Molana Asmatullah, who was previously in JUI-Nizrayati. One of the major influencers will be the banned organisation Sipah Sahaba or Ahle Sunnat Wal Jammat, which has considerable support in the region and may be able to sway the elections.
At present it is difficult to predict or analyse the 2018 elections because nomination papers are still being filed. With the new and increased scrutiny by the returning officers it is likely that even some experienced politicians might not qualify for the upcoming elections. Furthermore party tickets may not be given or withdrawn that could change the results of this analysis.
Nevertheless, two glaring trends seem to present in the electorate for the upcoming elections in Quetta: Firstly, there is an absence of the two biggest parties of Pakistan, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and no major candidate seems to have opted for them. At a later stage if some established personalities do not get tickets from their preferred parties they may switch to the PML-N or PPP but until now it is clear that PML-N and PPP are not in even a position to compete let alone win elections. Secondly, there is tremendous dismay and disappointment with the ideological parties of Balochistan - the voters may still cast votes for a particular ideology but the voting ground is shifting in the favour of individuals rather than a political idea. Three major political parties that have ruled Balochistan over the last 10 years namely PML-N, PML-Q and NP, may not even field candidates to compete in Quetta because of public resentment against them. The failure of the parties to deliver security, health, roads and most of all even safe drinking water has left the population despondent and unwilling to support their own political parties wholeheartedly.