As the coalition government enters its final weeks, there is fevered speculation about the incoming caretakers, the duration of their caretaking and the agenda that will define how much care they can actually undertake.
In the prevailing polarised environment, this is no easy task. More so because it is in these caretaking days that the political and legal fate of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) chairman Imran Khan will most likely be decided. The writing is on the wall. But the paint is still wet.
This bears significance because in the event-driven politics of Pakistan, even the best-laid plans tend to go awry. Members of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) led coalition government can bear witness to this truism. The topsy-turvy road they have lumbered across since April 2022 has been treacherous across one bend and smooth across the other. Now as the T-junction approaches with the end of the National Assembly’s five-year term, the rear-view mirror provides a reflection of what lies ahead.
The coalition government’s twin challenges of politics and governance in the last sixteen months revolved around one central question: how to win the next election. Both these challenges shape-shifted over this period, yet again reinforcing the mercurial nature of our system. The governance challenge was, however, simpler than the political one in terms of its framing. In other words, governance meant saving the economy and then reviving it enough to contrast it with the disastrous performance of the previous government.
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The political challenge, though, underwent at least three distinct phases, and all three are beginning to cast a shadow on what happens between now and the general elections.
The coalition government’s twin challenges of politics and governance in the last sixteen months revolved around one central question: how to win the next election
The first phase was defined by unbridled euphoria over the ouster of the Imran Khan government and the return to power of the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) after years in the wilderness. The euphoria, as it turned out, lasted for only a brief time before the harsh reality of the economic situation sucker-punched the unsuspecting coalition. If this wasn’t enough to send the rulers reeling to the ropes, a resurgent Imran Khan, high on his false US conspiracy narrative, slammed into the government like a runaway train.
The second phase revolved around dealing with an establishment that appeared to be playing on both sides of the wicket. It was in this phase that the concept of playing to the galleries was replaced with a more power-oriented approach to playing to the establishment. But this was easier said than done, as the coalition found out to its detriment. The roles of who was anti-establishment and who was on the same page began to switch in the face of emerging realities – it was hard to grasp the magnitude of the change as it was unfolding in real time – but what complicated this even further was the gap between what stakeholders said and what they actually meant.
In this phase, though, both the PDM and the PTI had accepted, acknowledged and internalised the reality that their power goals were now more than ever dependent on the establishment. It was a rude awakening for both sides. Less so though for the hard-nosed realists, who had kept their feet firmly planted on the ground and resisted being swept away by the flow of their own rhetoric.
While their panic was a result of their collective doing, the relief they are today relishing in is due to two men, and two men alone
The third phase started with the panic that comes from a realisation that both governance and politics were spinning out of control – and so were the PDM’s prospects of winning the elections – with no remedy in sight in the short time available.
This phase is now ending with relief that the IMF deal has stopped the macroeconomic slide and that Imran Khan has driven his juggernaut off the cliff. And yet, the coalition partners – at least the hard-nosed ones – realise that while their panic was a result of their collective doing, the relief they are today relishing in is due to two men, and two men alone.
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The choice of the incoming caretakers is rooted in the lessons drawn from these three phases. As are the expectations from them. Primary among these expectations is taking the tumultuous events of the last sixteen months – or perhaps the events since 2017 – to a logical conclusion. But this may be a bit more complicated than merely wrapping up Project Imran and starting with a clean slate after the elections. The caretakers can only take care of so much.
And herein lies the real rub.
Ah, the rub. Why does it have to rub the wrong way at the right time? The triumphant stakeholders may need to ponder over this as they grapple with three un-said and un-liked realities:
One, the PDM coalition played no real part in felling Imran Khan.
Two, Khan may be down, but he is not out.
Three, PDM’s same-page relationship with the establishment is dependent on having a common foe. For now.
There’s not much the caretakers can achieve in the limited time they have, but their role may be defined less in terms of substance and more in tune with setting a tone that is expected to be followed
These three uncomfortable truths will come into greater play as the caretakers take over the reins of the government and occupy a space that played a critical role in binding PDM to the establishment. Will the bond between the two fray as the coalition wanders out of power? Not really. Will it dilute the dynamics of the relationship? Perhaps.
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Which is why the choice of the caretakers will reveal the thinking deep inside the system. If the set-up is run by the usual suspects who have been part of such undertakings in the past, their agenda will focus mainly on keeping the seats warm for the PDM coalition while ensuring the wheels of the system keep spinning routinely. But if the caretakers consist of specialists who bring more to the table than just their last name, then we are looking at an attempt to draw a contrast in terms of setting governance goals and political priorities.
There’s not much the caretakers can achieve in the limited time they have, but their role may be defined less in terms of substance and more in tune with setting a tone that is expected to be followed by the next political government. The caretakers may therefore discover their real value not by what they do, but by who they are.
The end is in sight. So is the beginning.