Lately, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif distanced himself from the interior minister apparently owing to the sensitive issue of civil-military relations.
Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif – whose friendship with the interior minister remains immune to ups and downs – controlled the damage.
Chaudhry Nisar used to act as a go-between for Raiwind and GHQ. And when the prime minister broke that protocol, his relations with the interior minister deteriorated.
The interior minister has the reputation of not fighting his fight in public. Being a tactical strategist he does not believe in kneejerk reactions. He waits for an opportune time to strike the best bargain.
Contextually speaking, the frost between the prime minister and the interior minister – seemingly thawing – was the result of internal strife among three power centers within the PML-N.
One power center is the so-called Lahori group, consisting of Ishaq Dar, Khawaja Asif, Saad Rafique, Abid Sher Ali, Rana Sanaullah and others. All of them tend to feel closer to elder Sharif than his younger brother. The other, the so-called Potohari group solely dominated by Chaudhry Nisar, always keeps its door open for anyone who either fails to join the Lahori group or develops grudges against it. Owing to Chaudhry Nisar, the people of Potohari group are close to Shahbaz Sharif. The third power center is rather dynamic, comprised of bureaucrats at both national and provincial levels. The Sharif brothers have mastered the art of using civil servants to get the job done, sometimes bypassing their political subordinates.
[quote]The situation is a result of internal strife among three power centers in the PML-N[/quote]
The two rival groups tried subtly to create an impression that Chaudhry Nisar was losing his position of being indispensable to the Sharif brothers. The interior minister did not react, but went into some sort of hibernation. He was conspicuous with his absence at several important occasions.
Chaudhry Nisar was considered a bridge between the Sharif brothers and whosoever headed the armed forces. The military brass was wary of PML-N showing more than necessary leniency towards the Taliban militants. The dialogue mantra of the government was not being subscribed to by the soldiers or the decision makers in the military establishment. The blame fell to some extent on Chaudhry Nisar, for the indecision of the government.
In the infancy of his tenure as interior minister, he committed the same mistake that his predecessor Rehman Malik had made. The People’s Party interior minister made a rather crude move to gain influence over the country’s premier intelligence agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence. The People’s Party government had, in fact, issued a notification making ISI answerable to the interior minister. However, it was reverted as abruptly as it had been issued.
Chaudhry Nisar was eager to bring all 33 civil and military intelligence agencies under one umbrella of the National Counter-Terrorism Authority (NECTA). The move backfired, as expected. Besides, Finance Minister Ishaq Dar resisted the demand of releasing billions of rupees for NECTA.
Sensing the graveness, the interior minister made an endeavor to win back trust of the GHQ by advising Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to get General (r) Pervez Musharraf off the hook. The prime minister did not buy the argument that prolonging the trial of Gen Musharraf would create insurmountable challenges for the government.
Resentment among the ranks of Pakistan Army spiked after hearing hostile statements from Defense Minister Khawaja Asif against Gen Musharraf. Some news channel even re-broadcasted his old statements against the former dictator.
Chaudhry Nisar advised the prime minister to replace Khawaja Asif with Lt Gen (r) Abdul Qadir Baloch. The prime minister brushed the suggestion aside, perhaps fearing it would be taken as a blatant sign of weakness.
To preempt the move, an anti-Nisar lobby churned rumors that the prime minister might ask him to relinquish his portfolio. Before things could take an ugly turn, the Punjab chief minister jumped in and took Chaudhry Nisar to Raiwind, to hold an hours-long meeting with the prime minister that ended on a happy note.
After winning the 2013 general elections, Mian Nawaz Sharif had summoned Chaudhry Nisar and asked him to choose the ministry he wanted. He chose the interior ministry.
Given the personality and past experience of Chaudhry Nisar it was an odd decision, that some people claimed he had made to arm-twist his rivals including a property tycoon.
Railways Minister Khawaja Saad Rafique conceded that Chaudhry Nisar was among the very few indispensable people in the PML-N. “There is only one Chaudhry Nisar. He’s the most senior leader. No one can replace him,” he said.
He asserted there was no plan of a cabinet reshuffle. He refuted the reports that Gen (r) Baloch would soon replace Khawaja Asif as defense minister. “We are fighting a war. And we are also engaged in a political battle. Changing guards at this juncture doesn’t suit us.”
Over the years, Chaudhry Nisar has proven his worth. Senior PML-M leaders say it was he who had convinced Nawaz Sharif and his father, Mian Sharif, to appoint General Musharraf the army chief.
After the 1999 military coup, he was under severe pressure to join the Musharraf’s bandwagon, but he refused. Along with Javed Hashmi, he made a formidable and vociferous team to make PML-N survive in its toughest days.
People close to the prime minister say he has become very cautious after assuming power for the third time. He is not keeping all his eggs in one basket. He will not annoy others just to please Chaudhry Nisar. Instead, the prime minister has learned how to keep everyone happy.
Politically, Chaudhry Nisar cannot challenge the Sharifs within the party. But losing him is something they cannot afford now, or in the foreseeable future.
Shahzad Raza is an Islamabad-based journalist.
Twitter: @shahzadrez