As India gears up for the general elections in April and May of 2024, the opposition's push for a caste-based census as its last trump card poses a challenge to the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), disrupting its electoral strategy and comfortable stance.
The united opposition, under the INDIA alliance banner, is targeting backward castes with a message of historical marginalization by the Hindu upper castes, particularly concerning resource and position entitlements. This strategic shift comes at a crucial time. The startling findings of the recent state-led caste census in Bihar have shaken the BJP's prior electoral confidence. The census has encouraged people to demand a similar data collection activity in other parts of the country as well.
The ruling BJP, known for its upper-caste-dominated Hindutva politics, has long opposed caste enumeration, an integral part of the Hindu social hierarchy and division of labor. The party's stance remained unchanged despite growing demands from various states and marginalized communities for a caste-centric census. However, Bihar's independent initiative has forced the BJP to adopt a defensive stance.
Bihar's Revealing Data
Bihar's survey indicated that backward classes account for 60 percent of the state's population. The upper castes, representing around 15 percent, hold over 90 percent of high-level bureaucratic positions. These findings may just be the beginning, as other non-BJP-governed states are also initiating surveys. A caste-based census was last held in 1931.
The census brought Brahminical dominance to the fore. Despite comprising only about 4 percent of the population, Brahmins, positioned at the apex of the caste hierarchy, influence political, bureaucratic, and institutional domains. They hold nearly 94 percent of bureaucratic roles and dominate leadership positions across various sectors.
Since independence, 45 percent of the prime ministers, 30 percent of presidents and 47 percent of chief justices of the Indian Supreme Court have been from the Brahmin community.
In India, out of the 121 major newsrooms across print, electronic, magazines and digital the leadership positions like, editors-in-chief, managing editors, executive editors and bureau chiefs, 106 are occupied by upper castes, five by other backward classes and six by people from minority communities.
Among the 40 Hindi and 47 English news anchors, three out of every four anchors belong to the upper caste. There is not a single Dalit or Adivasi in the ranks.
The census brought Brahminical dominance to the fore. Despite comprising only about 4 percent of the population, Brahmins, positioned at the apex of the caste hierarchy, influence political, bureaucratic, and institutional domains. They hold nearly 94 percent of bureaucratic roles and dominate leadership positions across various sectors.
“The Indian political and bureaucratic system has always been dominated by the upper caste. No political party has ever wanted to conduct a caste census. They very well knew that it could change the electoral and power sharing equation,” says political analyst Abhay Kumar.
As per the Sachar Committee report, Muslim comprise 14 percent of the population in India but less than 3 percent of Muslim make it to the Indian bureaucracy.
Data complied by 78 ministries and departments, including their attached and subordinate offices, shows the representation of scheduled caste (SC), scheduled tribes (ST) and other backward classes (OBC) in the posts and services of the central government, as on January 1, 2016, is 17.49 percent, 8.47 percent and 21.57 percent respectively.
Echoes of the Mandal Commission
The current situation mirrors the transformative Mandal-Karmandal political discourse nearly four decades ago. The Mandal Commission's recommendation for a 27 percent reservation for backward classes, forming over half of India's population, saw partial implementation, changing the nation’s political fabric and empowering regional parties.
During this period, the BJP distanced itself from these recommendations, counteracting with ‘Karmandal’, symbolised by Lal Krishan Advani's Rath Yatra, which fortified its electoral base around Hindutva to build Ram Temple at the site of Babri Masjid in Ayodhya, and eventually propelled it to power.
Caste politics and the BJP’s dilemma
The BJP, traditionally backed by the Hindu upper caste, has relied on caste polarisation and religious sentiment to maintain its relevance. The party even highlighted Prime Minister Narendra Modi's OBC status in past campaigns to undermine regional caste-centric parties and unite non-Muslim demographics under the Hindutva fold.
However, the rejection of the caste census and inconsistent stance on caste-based issues potentially exposes the BJP's double standards, weakening its Hindutva appeal among Dalits, who felt increasingly disenfranchised.
The startling findings of the recent state-led caste census in Bihar have shaken the BJP's prior electoral confidence. The census has encouraged people to demand a similar data collection activity in other parts of the country as well.
Professor N. Sukumar, who teaches Political Science in the Delhi University says that this could be a new wave of a social justice movement. From the handling of the Manipur massacre where Christian minorities were targeted to ignoring the President of India during the inauguration of the new Parliament buildings, these events have not gone down well with the backward communities. The caste census is a recent addition to this.
President Draupadi Murmu comes from the tribal community and the BJP had felt that bringing a tribal to the highest office would keep the backward class in its fold. “The backward community has been very watchful and can read through the BJP’s plan. The BJP will not get the support that it was counting on,” added Sukumar.
“There is a clear cut sense of social justice politics. The regional concerns will need to be addressed,” he says.
Reservation debate and electoral implications
Endorsing a stance similar to Lalu Prasad Yadav, Rahul Gandhi advocates for reservations reflecting population proportions, implying over 50 percent for backward classes. This proposition faces staunch resistance from upper-caste Hindus, potentially widening rifts between Hindutva advocates and backward classes.
"The timing of the caste census report complicates matters for the BJP," Kumar states, pointing out the proximity of assembly and general elections. "The window for damage control is narrow, and the BJP finds itself in a precarious position."
The emerging caste dynamics and calls for social justice present a nuanced battleground in the upcoming elections, possibly redefining political alliances and voter preferences.