Imagine a vast field planted with seeds—if left unchecked, the field becomes overcrowded, choking the growth of individual plants and depleting the soil of essential nutrients. Similar is the case with our country’s population growth; with each passing year, more strain is added to the country’s finite resources. As of 2023, Pakistan’s population has surpassed 241 million, making it the fifth-most populous nation globally (Pakistan Bureau of Statistics). This explosive growth has led to severe stress on public services, infrastructure, and economic opportunities. Like an overgrown field that needs careful pruning and nurturing, Pakistan also requires deliberate and informed strategies to address its population challenges.
Major cities of the country, like Karachi, Lahore, and Islamabad/Rawalpindi, bear the brunt of urban overpopulation. Karachi, the economic hub of Pakistan, has a population density of over 24,000 people per square kilometer. According to a report by UNICEF, Lahore has roughly 30% of its settlements as slums, and these slums are home to an estimated population of 1.7 million people. The proportion of the urban slum population in Lahore has reached the upper limit threshold of the city’s total population. However, Islamabad, though smaller, faces the challenges of unplanned urban sprawl as it attracts migrants seeking better opportunities.
Furthermore, Interior Sindh, southern Punjab, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) experience high birth rates with limited access to healthcare and education. According to the Pakistan Geographical Review, the total fertility rate in Sindh is 3.6 births per woman, which is higher than the world average of 2.4. The analysis also mentions that the total fertility rate in Punjab is also high, with 3.6 births per woman. In addition to this, the Population Welfare Department Khyber Pakhtunkhwa states that the total fertility rate in KPK is 4.0 births per woman. Equally important is the healthcare dilemma. According to the World Bank, Sindh has significant disparities in healthcare access, with maternal mortality rates at 224 per 100,000 live births and under-5 mortality at 77 per 1,000 live births. The report also mentions that KPK also grapples with similar issues, having a maternal mortality rate of 175 per 100,000 live births and an under-5 mortality rate of 64 per 1,000 live births. Likewise, Southern Punjab faces poorer health outcomes compared to other regions in Punjab, struggling with limited access to healthcare services. The lack of infrastructure and family planning awareness in these areas perpetuates cycles of poverty and resource scarcity. The 2017 Census conducted by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics indicated that regions like Dera Ghazi Khan in Punjab and Tharparkar in Sindh have some of the highest dependency ratios, emphasising the burden of overpopulation on rural economies.
The International Labour Organisation (ILO) reported that Pakistan’s youth unemployment rate stood at 10.8% in 2023, shedding light on the economic troubles posed by a young and rapidly evolving population
Another key element that contributes to overpopulation is the limited access to contraception and inadequate awareness about family planning, which contribute majorly to high birth rates. According to the Population Council, only 34% of married women in Pakistan use modern contraceptive methods, a statistic that lags behind other South Asian nations like Bangladesh (62%). Cultural stigmas and myths surrounding contraceptives further hinder their widespread adoption. Another contributing factor is poverty and unemployment. Economic hardships compel families to have more children, viewing them as potential contributors to household income. According to the World Bank, nearly 40% of Pakistan's population lives below the poverty line, a situation closely linked to higher fertility rates. Another important thing to note is that cultural and religious beliefs play a huge role in our societal dynamics. Large families are usually celebrated, and certain religious schools of thought discourage the use of contraceptives. This challenge is compounded by the lack of consensus among religious scholars on family planning, further complicating awareness campaigns.
Moving on, tackling overpopulation has become an indispensability for us due to several pressing reasons. First, overpopulation directly strains essential resources such as water, food, and energy. Pakistan has become a water-scarce country, with per capita water availability dropping below 1,000 cubic meters annually, a threshold defined by the United Nations in its Water Development Report 2024. Similarly, food insecurity affects over 37% of the population, as per the World Food Programme.
Moreover, the burgeoning population outpaces job creation, leading to increased unemployment and underemployment. The International Labour Organisation (ILO) reported that Pakistan’s youth unemployment rate stood at 10.8% in 2023, shedding light on the economic troubles posed by a young and rapidly evolving population. Most importantly, uncontrolled population growth undermines our efforts to achieve SDGs, especially those related to health, education, and poverty reduction. The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) identifies overpopulation as a key obstacle to meeting targets like quality education (SDG 4) and gender equality (SDG 5).
The dilemma of overpopulation is a nerve-wracking one, but hope still persists. The government can collaborate with international organisations as it has done previously with USAID and UNFPA when initiatives were facilitated like the Family Planning 2020 (FP2020) commitment. The government could also introduce and enforce laws that mandate family planning education in schools, which will develop awareness from an early stage. Our legal framework includes the Reproductive Healthcare and Rights Act, of 2013, which serves as a foundational step towards addressing reproductive health issues and family planning. The sole purpose of this act is to ensure access to reproductive healthcare and protect individuals’ rights to make informed choices about their health. However, if we talk about the implementation of the act, it has been inconsistent across provinces due to the country’s decentralised governance structure following the 18th Constitutional Amendment. Health and education are provincial subjects, meaning that each province has the autonomy to design and enforce policies within these sectors. Consequently, some provinces have made progress in integrating family planning and reproductive health education into their curricula, while others lag due to a lack of resources, political will, or sociocultural resistance. Moreover, societal taboos and the legal system's limited focus on monitoring and enforcement further hinder the Act's effectiveness. Courts in Pakistan have occasionally addressed reproductive health issues, but these cases are often reactive rather than proactive. To ensure comprehensive implementation, the legal system should introduce mechanisms for regular audits of school curricula and penalties for non-compliance.
The government should also focus on expanding access to affordable contraceptives and improving maternal healthcare services that can significantly reduce fertility rates. Another thing that can be done is to strengthen supply chains and involve private healthcare providers, who are key components of a sturdy healthcare strategy. A case in point is Bangladesh’s success in reducing its fertility rate from 6.3 in 1975 to 2.3 in 2020. In addition to this, mass media campaigns, particularly those addressing rural populations, can tackle myths about family planning.
Education empowers women to participate more actively in the workforce, fostering economic growth and enhancing their decision-making capabilities regarding family planning
Moving on, education can also play an integral role in tackling overpopulation. The national policy framework must incorporate population studies and family planning topics into school curricula to address overpopulation. Education not only increases awareness but also empowers individuals to make informed decisions about family size and reproductive health. According to UNESCO, each additional year of schooling for girls significantly reduces the likelihood of early marriage and high fertility rates. This points to the metamorphic role of education in promoting sustainable population growth. The government should also focus on dilating access to affordable contraceptives and refining maternal healthcare services that can remarkably reduce fertility rates. Another thing that can be done is to nourish supply chains and involve private healthcare providers, who are salient components of a sturdy healthcare strategy.
Moreover, educating women has a profound impact on fertility rates and overall societal development. A Policy Research Paper by the World Bank indicates that a reasonable level of education may be necessary for women to be able to understand the consequences of fertility control. Moreover, education empowers women to participate more actively in the workforce, fostering economic growth and enhancing their decision-making capabilities regarding family planning. This dual benefit emphasises the importance of prioritising women's education in efforts to tackle overpopulation. The government can also collaborate with NGOs to educate youth in both rural and urban areas, which will instill a culture of informed family planning. Initiatives like Pakistan’s Adolescent Health and Nutrition program are designed to fill existing gaps by engaging young people in reproductive health education.
To analyse this further, we must take a look around the globe. Bangladesh has integrated family planning into primary healthcare systems, supported by international donors like the World Bank. This helped Bangladesh reduce its fertility rate from 6.3 in 1975 to 2.3 in 2020. Similarly, Ethiopia introduced community-based family planning programs, supported by USAID, which allowed them to successfully lower their fertility rates through education and access to contraception. Indonesia’s “Two is Enough” campaign is an exemplary approach that utilised education and media to promote smaller families. The Indonesian government specifically focused on female education and economic empowerment to further reinforce this message, which led to a noteworthy reduction in fertility rates.
On the whole, there is no doubt that Pakistan stands at a deprecatory crossroads, much like a gardener with an overgrown field. The country’s burgeoning population, if left unmanaged, could overwhelm its finite resources and hinder its progress toward a stable and prosperous future. Addressing this issue requires a multi-pronged approach that combines government-led policy interventions with grassroots education initiatives. This requires a balanced mix of education, healthcare, and policy reform—ensuring that every citizen, much like every seed in the field, has the opportunity to thrive without depleting shared resources. By learning from the smart strategies of Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Ethiopia, we can adopt evidence-based solutions to control our population growth. The field, once carefully tended, can yield a bountiful harvest, symbolising the promise of a better tomorrow for all its people.