Famous American thrash metal band, Slayer, released their debut album “Show No Mercy” that also included a song titled Fight till Death.
Prepare for attack
Your body will burn
Endless war
There's no return
Prepare for attack
Death will arrive
Your orders are clear
No way to hide
Fight till death
The lyrics perfectly capture the current state of a fight between the powerful Pakistani establishment and their latest challenger, Imran Khan. When the establishment orchestrated his removal from power, the assumption was that his support base was weak and would wither away with time. The exact opposite transpired. Imran Khan threw down the gauntlet like none before him had and his popular support has increased manifolds during this time.
Despite that, he is languishing in jail for almost a year and a half, his party seems to be in tatters, supporters are charged but clueless about the road ahead, and the establishment is using all possible means to intensify its stranglehold on power. There are murmurs of a likely deal leading to Khan’s release from jail every now and then. But what is the credence of these reports?
When the current army chief, Gen. Asim Munir, replaced Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa, PTI was hopeful, albeit briefly, for a change in policy towards them. It wasn’t to be. The clash of the titans escalated when Imran Khan started naming the army chief publicly as responsible for targeting him and his party. Even the assurance (in an interview with foreign media representatives from the courtroom) that he has no intentions of replacing Gen. Asim Munir as the army chief after coming back to power rubbed the chief the wrong way.
During this time, PTI was also banking on support within the military and Imran Khan used to claim “getting internal information” frequently. The army chief, somewhat temperamental but an introvert by nature, took his time to comb through the ranks. The corps commanders and other sensitive appointments made by Gen. Bajwa just before his retirement were changed and the chief now has his trusted lieutenants at all command posts that matter in the grand scheme of things.
The reports of cracking down on Gen. Faiz Hameed’s network are also correct. When he sought premature retirement from the army, he did leave his trusted men in key positions who used to leak information to him (believed to be funneled to the PTI chief). That network was swiftly detected and dismantled. Many of them are under arrest and facing investigations, including Gen. Faiz himself. However, contrary to what his detractors believe, it is highly unlikely that Faiz will be court-martialed as it will open another can of worms. If political meddling in uniform leads to conviction when the wind starts blowing in a different direction, how will any of his successors feel confident in treading the same path?
Imran Khan is ready to negotiate with the military but without compromising on his basic demands. To be clear, his demands are purely political and related to his party’s mandate as well as independent judicial inquiry of the cases against them
The third tier of Imran Khan’s sympathisers included the low-ranking officers and ex-servicemen. They were given stern warnings and punishments that included confiscating allotted plots, restricting access to armed forces’ medical facilities, and blocking pensions. Retired Generals Amjad Shoaib and Naeem Khalid Lodhi are prime examples of those who now stand tight-lipped.
There have been attempts to negotiate a deal between Imran Khan and the military establishment after May 9. These feeble efforts were made by in-service senior cadre (before they were replaced with those who are absolutely on the same page with the current chief), ex-servicemen and some senior politicians within PTI to test the waters and see if the clash could be avoided from intensifying. However, none showed any inclination to budge. For example, a proposal that Imran Khan should tender a public apology for the May 9 incidents was shot down by Khan himself. The gossip floated by pro-establishment mouthpieces that Khan is seeking an NRO is also wishful. Propaganda is being used unscrupulously by both sides to form opinions in their favour.
Imran Khan is ready to negotiate with the military but without compromising on his basic demands. To be clear, his demands are purely political and related to his party’s mandate as well as independent judicial inquiry of the cases against them. At no stage so far, has he made any demands to hold the military or its top brass accountable. He would not agree to offer an apology, which his opponents would love to see in a desperate attempt to shatter the “dat ke khara hai kaptaan” aura, would not materialise. In every likelihood, he wouldn’t be released even after taking this extreme measure. The military top brass is also not ready to trust that Imran Khan will keep himself in check once out of prison. Therefore, no offer from either side is currently on the table.
To keep him confined by hook or by crook, new cases are registered whenever there is the slightest hint of him getting some legal relief. The judiciary has been tamed and the 26th amendment is the chosen way forward. The establishment is practically running the government and there is no friction as of now. The Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) which started with one room in the PM office now occupies two floors, supervised by a serving general. The Prime Minister is willing to comply even if it means bending backward all the time. The mutual arrangement is likely to last till the five-year term of the army chief (per the 26th Amendment) gets extended in 2027. At least, that’s the plan of the current regime. They are pinning hopes on Imran Khan’s support base evaporating if the current dispensation is stretched, although the Khan loyalists have shown no such tendencies so far.
PTI, minus Imran Khan, is considered manageable for the establishment. Even the chief minister of KPK can’t go all out against them, and they have managed to forge a working relationship. The establishment has weighed that the zenith of the party’s challenge, backed by their charged supporters, were May 9 and Nov 26. The establishment has successfully managed to install moles within the party who keep going back and forth at each other leaving their followers confused. All that is methodically planned and serves somebody else’s purpose. Just think how many party leaders issued aggressive statements before Nov 26th, left their homes to join the protest, but never reached there? Those on the ground could be counted on the fingers of both hands. If everything is so hunky-dory for the ruling junta, then what are the bumps on the road?
What Imran Khan and his party are going through is the same cycle that the PPP endured for 11 years after Gen. Zia and the PML-N suffered for nine years after Gen. Musharraf
The biggest headache for the establishment is the unflinching PTI support on social media that often appears to dominate the narrative war. The unrelenting lobbying efforts by the diaspora in support of Imran Khan are also quite irksome for the establishment but they haven’t been able to find an answer to it. The support that the diaspora has been able to garner from the U.S. legislators and officials nominated to the incoming Trump administration is being keenly observed. The establishment thinks that the Trump administration won’t directly press for Khan’s release. But it can’t be completely ruled out. In the eventuality that such a demand is made, the establishment is ready to resist. The template to be followed is that of Dr. Shakeel Afridi who was taken in custody for helping the U.S. forces reach Osama Bin Laden.
Three U.S. presidents – Barack Obama, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden – have demanded his release from Pakistan without success. When the secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, visited Pakistan in Oct 2011, her first agenda item during the meeting with the then army chief, Gen. Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, was the release of Dr. Afridi. She was told politely that it was non-negotiable. The establishment also thinks that despite financial challenges, it has leverage that can be used with the U.S. if the incoming administration tries any arm-twisting tactics. The U.S. wouldn’t want to push Pakistan into the Chinese and Russian camp at a time when they already have tensions brewing up with Iran in the region.
What happens with the Trump administration is still to be seen, but no other country (China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, UAE, etc.) has officially raised Imran Khan’s incarceration with the Pakistan government or establishment yet. The establishment feels encouraged by that. The timing of the verdict in the 190 million pounds case was meant to send a signal to hopeful pro-Imran quarters.
The way things stand, the famous “one grave and two bodies” quote attributed to Wali Khan when he was referring to Gen. Zia-ul-Haq and Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto comes to mind. The establishment is clear though that they can’t eliminate Imran Khan from the picture altogether as Zia did with Bhutto. Times have changed and Imran Khan’s status as an international celebrity makes it difficult to even think about any radical option. The consequences might be too hot to handle. Therefore, the decision is to keep him in prison and his voice muzzled for the foreseeable future (even if that means stretching the legal boundaries).
What Imran Khan and his party are going through is the same cycle that the PPP endured for 11 years after Gen. Zia and the PML-N suffered for nine years after Gen. Musharraf. The dynamics may be different, but stakes have heightened, and over-inflated egos make a reconciliation out of the question. There is no looking back for either side, and the winner takes all. It is very much a fight till the death (be it of Imran Khan’s political base or the establishment’s iron-fisted power). Let’s see who blinks first.