The news of Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s willingness to visit India to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s foreign ministers meeting on May 4-5, 2023 is being received with skepticism but satisfaction in India and Pakistan. The two countries seem to be coming out of the deep freeze. Just how real will this thaw be?
Bilawal will be stepping on Indian soil to lead the Pakistan delegation to the SCO in Goa, India. His visit will be the first by a Pakistani foreign minister in nearly 12 years. Hina Rabbani Khar, his deputy in the foreign ministry, visited India in 2011.
Between 2011 and 2023, a heavy cloud of acrimony has hung over the two neighboring states. Modi’s surprise visit to Lahore on Nawaz Sharif’s birthday and his granddaughter’s wedding in 2015 illustrated some keenness on his part to normalise relations. But it was followed by the Pathankot incident in 2016. Thereafter, relations between the two countries flipped into a reverse position: the Pakistan Air Force struck six targets in India-held Kashmir in February 26, 2019, and downed two intruding Indian fighter jets and arrested one pilot. Modi revoked Kashmir’s constitutional autonomy and integrated the area fully into India in August of the same year. Also, recently the discontentment between India and Pakistan has grown over the Indus Waters Treaty, where India is demanding a modification of the treaty with Pakistan refusing to engage on the matter.
Ayesha Siddiqa says, “With Imran Khan breathing down the neck of PDM government, I do not expect any concessions from Bilawal at the meeting, such as asking India for help in the ongoing economic crisis.”
Beside a display of such distrust and anger in the foreground, the representatives of India and Pakistan have kept in touch with each other in the background. The ceasefire along the Line of Control since the midnight of 24-25 February 2021 is an outcome of such an effort.
But now, the air across the border is dense with the optimism of peaceniks, as well as the hawkishness of warmongers. Are the two neighbors feeling too close – or apart – to each other too quickly?
Though, Foreign Office spokesperson Mumtaz Zahrah Baloch underlined at the weekly media briefing on April 20 that “the upcoming visit of the foreign minister is not a bilateral visit, but a visit in the SCO context,” the news has set foreign affairs observers in a total spin. India’s raucous media does not see Pakistani FM’s visits to Goa as nothing much to celebrate, “for what Pakistan shows off and what Pakistan actually does… there is a difference in that”, reported India’s News9.
The confirmation of Bilawal’s attendance at the SCO meeting has generated a similar reaction in the equally rowdy media on this side of the border. Analyst Nasim Zehra stated on YouTube that at a time when India is not budging from it’s Kashmir stance and has the audacity to hold the G20 summit in Kashmir, Bilawal should not participate in the meeting physically but virtually. “Pakistan must emphatically object to India’s treatment of Kashmir on the international level,” she said.
Suhasini Haider says given their past ties, expectations are low of anything more than a thaw in their personal rapport. “Any move beyond that, to restore High Commissioners or trade or visas for example, will be seen as a major breakthrough. There is no question that such visits, even if mandated by multilateral memberships are opportunities. The question is, what will New Delhi and Islamabad make of the opportunity.”
Regardless, Bilawal’s decision to visit Goa is reflective of Pakistan’s changing stance towards India. Security analyst Ayesha Siddiqa told The Friday Times (TFT) that the decision “reflects an interesting twist after giving an extreme statement in New York, where he said, ‘Osama bin Laden is dead, but the butcher of Gujarat lives and he is the Prime Minister of India.’ After that statement, agreeing to go to India could well be a step back because he is going to the country of the butcher of Gujarat.”
She however understands that the SCO is an important platform to rekindle harmonious relations among member states. “Pakistan team will be sitting alongside friends from Russia and China.”
India extended the invitation to Pakistan, and other member countries of the organization – China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan – to attend the SCO meeting in January 2023, after Shehbaz Sharif offered to talk with India.
Suhasini Haider, Diplomatic Affairs Editor, The Hindu, told TFT that while it was expected that Pakistan would attend the SCO, confirmation that it will be FM Bhutto coming to India for the meeting in May is significant for two reasons: one, this will be the first time he and Dr. Jaishankar will be meeting since their spat at the UN in December, and it will be important to see what their bilateral meeting, if any, will yield. Secondly, it sets up for the SCO leaders summit in July, where there is a greater chance of substantive outcomes.”
She said, given their past ties, expectations are low of anything more than a thaw in their personal rapport. “Any move beyond that, to restore High Commissioners or trade or visas for example, will be seen as a major breakthrough. There is no question that such visits, even if mandated by multilateral memberships are opportunities. The question is, what will New Delhi and Islamabad make of the opportunity.”
At the moment Pakistan is not one of India’s primary concerns. Minister of External Affairs Subrahmanyam Jaishankar has not displayed even the slightest excitement over the visitor from next door. “It would be interesting to watch what transpires between now and Bilawal’s arrival in Goa. What will the Indian opposition say, what will the media trump up… this and more will shape the SCO for Pakistan,” said Siddiqa.
Her hunch though is that Bilawal will use this opportunity to score points, to look good as a possible candidate for the future prime minister of Pakistan. “With Imran Khan breathing down the neck of PDM government, I do not expect any concessions from Bilawal at the meeting, such as asking India for help in the ongoing economic crisis.”