Alarm bells are ringing across the country, warning of soaring temperatures expected to persist from May 20 to 24, 2025. The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has issued a heatwave alert, predicting temperatures may rise by as much as seven degrees Celsius above normal due to a high-pressure system in the upper atmosphere.
The heatwave is believed to be part of a fast-warming planet due to climate change, and heat has become a major cause of fatalities.
According to the PMD, the southern regions of the country, including Sindh, southern Punjab, and Balochistan, are likely to experience daytime temperatures of four to six degrees Celsius above average. Meanwhile, the upper parts of the country, comprising central and upper Punjab, Islamabad, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), Kashmir, and Gilgit-Baltistan (GB), are likely to face even higher variations, with temperatures expected to rise to five to seven degrees Celsius above normal.
Muhammad Fahim, a deputy director at PMD's Regional Meteorological Centre in KP, told The Friday Times that climate change is no longer a distant threat but has become a harsh and undeniable reality.
Climate Change Turning Into Harsh Reality
Fahim said that for the past four years, Pakistan has been witnessing a distressing rise in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. Previously, extreme temperature events such as heatwaves were typically limited to the southern districts of KP, such as Dera Ismail Khan, Lakki Marwat, and Tank and mostly occurred in May and June. However, in recent years, both plains and mountainous regions have been experiencing heat waves annually.
The regional metrological centre's deputy director explained that last year, heatwaves began as early as April, and alarmingly, this year they started in early March — when winter is tapering off into spring. He noted that 2023 and 2024 were consecutively the hottest years recorded globally. Moreover, 2015 through 2024 comprise the warmest decade on record, highlighting a concerning acceleration in global temperature rise. These consecutive record-breaking years underscore the urgent need for comprehensive climate action to mitigate the swelling impacts of global warming.
Apart from the impacts of climate change, Faheem attributed the growing harshness of heat waves to unplanned urbanisation. "Our buildings are constructed in ways that trap and retain heat for long durations, which prolongs the impact of heatwaves," he said. In cities, concrete buildings absorb heat throughout the day and release it in the evening, keeping the temperature uncomfortably high, even after sunset.
Faheem said that the acceleration and intensification of extreme weather events due to climate change are deeply alarming. "Our current infrastructure and collective negligence will only worsen the challenges ahead," he warned.
Citing weather records for the past five years, he pointed to the increasing frequency and severity of heatwaves, a notable decline in winter rainfall, droughts, more frequent torrential downpours, and reduced snowfall in mountainous regions as evidence of climatic changes. "These are undeniable facts," he stressed, warning that if tangible actions are not taken now, future generations may be unable to cope with the consequences.
The PMD report highlighted that intense heat is also expected to trigger dust storms and gusty winds in various plain areas, adding to the risks associated with the ongoing weather conditions.
It further warned of an increased risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) in the mountainous regions of GB and KP due to the significant rise in temperatures. With a fresh wave of sustained high temperatures expected to commence from May 19, it is feared that it would accelerate snow and glacier melt, potentially triggering GLOF events in vulnerable and unsuspecting valleys.
In its Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has highlighted rising temperatures and their impacts on Asia, including the increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as heatwaves. Heatwaves and humid heat stress are expected to become more intense and frequent during the 21st century across South Asia. The report further projects that with global warming of 1.5°C, extreme heat events, which previously occurred once in 10 years, are likely to happen 4.1 times within the same period.
At 2°C warming, such events could occur 5.6 times in 10 years.
Heatwave Kills
The PMD has urged the public, especially children, the elderly, and women, to avoid venturing into direct sunlight during the daytime and remain hydrated. Health officials recommend minimising outdoor activities during peak heat hours to reduce the risk of heatstroke. Farmers are advised to adjust their agricultural practices in light of the extreme heat and to take extra care of their livestock.
Last year, a study was published in the Pakistan Journal of Medical and Health Sciences titled: "Alarming Heat Wave-2024: The summer season in Pakistan", which noted that health officials reported nearly 700 deaths in June during a severe heatwave in Sindh province, with most fatalities occurring in Karachi. Similarly, a year prior in 2023, a report in The Guardian — based on research published in Nature Medicine — noted that heat worsened by carbon pollution was linked to 50,000 deaths across Europe, with Greece, Italy, and Spain experiencing the highest mortality rates.
Extreme heat has thus become the leading cause of climate-related deaths in Europe, according to the World Health Organisation (WHO). Temperatures in the region have been rising at nearly twice the global average, causing an estimated 175,000 heat-related deaths annually. This staggering figure, reported in August 2024, accounts for more than a third of the world's total heat-related fatalities.
UNICEF's data from 2021 adds another dimension, estimating 377 child deaths linked to rising temperatures in Europe and Central Asia, with infants under one year especially at risk due to complications like pre-term birth and low birth weight.