New Delhi’s immense investment in the conventional arms, upgrading of its anti-missile program, and its latest doctrinal transformation have indulged Pakistan to respond in one way or the other in order to restore and maintain the credibility of its nuclear deterrence.
Islamabad’s successful launches on November 13 and November 17 of intermediate and medium range ballistic missiles came immediately after Delhi’s launch of the medium range ballistic missile Agni II and the longer range, subsonic cruise missile Nirbhay on November 9 and 17. The nuclear-capable cruise missile Nirbhay has a range of over 700 kilometers, and was announced to have been test-fired from Balasore in Odisha state. Agni-II has a strike range of 2,000 km and was fired from the Wheeler Island off the Odisha Coast.
Evidently, the main purpose of Islamabad’s move is to ensure that Pakistan has that counter strike capability that limits the threat of India’s conventional limited war. For that reason, Pakistan successfully tested on November 13 the Shaheen-II (Hatf-VI) ballistic missile that is capable of carrying nuclear and conventional warheads to a range of 1,500 kilometers, and on November 17 the intermediate range Shaheen I-A (Hatf IV) that is capable of carrying nuclear and conventional warheads to a range of 900 kilometers.
The latest Pakistani missile test was its fifth in 2014
Pakistan has tested a wide range of missiles in the recent months, including nuclear-capable missiles, ranging from the Hatf-IX tactical missile with a range of 60 kilometres to Hatf-IV, as part of efforts to strengthen its nuclear arsenal to counter India’s conventional superiority.
The latest Pakistani test was the fifth in 2014 – On September 26, it fired short range surface-to-surface missile Hatf IX (NASR) with a range of 60 kilometers; the short range surface-to-surface ballistic missile Hatf III (Ghaznavi), with a range of 290 kilometers, was test-fired on May 8; and a previous version of Hatf III was tested on April 22.
India's first medium-range cruise missile Nirbhay
Primarily, the ongoing race between India and Pakistan at tactical level is to show each other their capabilities, but in this race, Pakistan is not acting but reacting. However, this race is becoming a point of concern not only for the region but also for the international community. Pakistan says it does not want to involve itself in an unending missile race, and that the behavior of Indian government and its strategists is compelling it to respond. What New Delhi needs to see is that Pakistan has the technological and tactical robustness to stay in this competition, and its efforts to gain conventional military superiority will only bring South Asia to the verge of instability, that may result in large scale destruction.
The authors are research associates at the Strategic Vision Institute in Islamabad Email: raza.svi@gmail.com & beenishaltaf7@gmail.com
