It’s that time of the year again - when a reddish-brown cloud looms over Lahore, marking the advent of the city’s fifth season – the smog season. Typically, our (attempted) response to air pollution is also seasonal.
Air pollution is a year-round phenomenon, impacting communities across Pakistan, with or without the winter smog. Among other affected cities, Lahore is far ahead in the air pollution race. It remains the worst affected city in Pakistan, with Air Quality Index (AQI) levels often crossing the hazardous 300 mark particularly the winter months.
According to an Urban Unit report, 83 percent of Lahore’s air pollution comes from its transportation sector. Even though this is an overestimate, it is an important indicator of where a significant proportion of the problem lies. There is more robust evidence suggesting that transportation contributes 43 percent of emissions across Punjab and that this percentage is higher in urban centers like Lahore. Crop burning, brick kilns, open fire cooking, industry, agriculture and power are secondary to transportation. They represent the other half of the problem.
It is important to note that poor air quality in Lahore is not imported from India or elsewhere – a common misconception laid to rest by a recent World Bank geospatial study.
It is more or less established that transportation is indeed the biggest villain of Lahore’s poor air quality story. But should that surprise us? In the last two decades, private vehicles in Punjab have increased unlike most other sectors: from 1.5 million vehicles in 2000 to a staggering 19.7 million vehicles in 2020. Today, more than 6 million of these vehicles are registered in Lahore, a majority of them two-wheelers and three-wheelers, and the rest motor cars, sport utility vehicles (SUVs), station wagons, etc. And there is more. Thousands of ‘qingqis’ and ‘loaders’ roam the streets of Lahore without any documentation, relentlessly adding to the city’s overall emissions. The key point about these vehicles is that they don’t burn fuel efficiently, resulting in harmful emissions into the atmosphere.
Hypothetically, even if we replaced all the combustion engines with electric motors, it would not rid us of transport sector emissions.
Globally, efforts are in swing to shift to a range of different hybrid and electric vehicles that either do not combust fossil fuels at all or demand less of it since they are powered through a combination of combustion engines and lithium batteries, if not entirely the latter. The switch to electric vehicles (EVs) means less emissions.
Unfortunately, in Punjab, EVs that should be subsidized and replaced with combustion engine vehicles are not making it to the road because the government has thus far failed to update its vehicle registration forms. There is no protocol for engineless vehicles. EV buyers and sellers, therefore, remain in limbo.
Hypothetically, even if we replaced all the combustion engines with electric motors, it would not rid us of transport sector emissions. That is because a majority of road transport particulate matter originates from vehicle brakes, tires, road suspension wear and dust. What we need instead is a radical shift towards new public transport infrastructure that is sensitive to commuter needs and that supports last mile connectivity.
This should ideally result in more rapid mass transit lines, more e-bus routes, and a city-wide transition to electric three-wheelers to facilitate last mile connectivity. Ultimately, the comfort, cost and convenience of public transportation has to match the experience offered to commuters through private vehicles.
That is the big, audacious goal we need to chase in order to address poor air quality in Lahore. Discouraging private vehicle ownership and use is integral to this idea.
Another significant piece of the problem is poor fuel quality. Pakistan is mostly combusting Pak-II fuel, which is equivalent to the Euro-II standard. This is a high sulfur content fuel that results in more harmful emissions and air pollution compared to Euro V and VI fuels that contain less sulfur and are less polluting. Since roughly 50 percent of Pakistan’s fuel is imported, one can direct the cleaner fuels to cities with the worst air quality to make a dent in air pollution. Many experts, studies and even government policies (both at the provincial and national level) recognize this as low hanging fruit - a quick and easy initiative to provide some relief. The inaction on this front, therefore, is particularly confounding.
On the domestic front, carbon, fuel, toll, congestion, and registration taxes are some examples to generate revenue for air quality control initiatives.
The government of Punjab can do a lot more to improve air quality in Lahore and other parts of the province. Some of the high impact recommendations are as follows: revise and update in-use vehicle emissions standards; retrofit particulate filters and catalytic converters to meet new emission standards; procure remote sensing technologies to identify high polluting vehicles; develop a program to phase out high polluting vehicles; new policies to distribute Euro V fuel to cities with the worst air quality; phase two combustion engine vehicles out against the registration of every new electric vehicle; heavily incentivize remote work opportunities; plan residential, commercial and industrial zones to minimize commute; prioritize public transport infrastructure projects over EV transition; limit private vehicle ownership and use; halt the unabated expansion of city limits and expand the city vertically along existing mass transportation lines, etc. These are of course broad brush strokes that can all stand as independent, but highly interconnected projects.
Some of the initiatives listed above demand coordination across the Ministry of Climate Change and the government of Punjab. Other initiatives involve the Ministries of Energy, Commerce and Industry. And yet all initiatives are inextricably linked to departments of health, transportation and environmental protection within Punjab. All this is to say that governance, project ownership, political will and coordination across government institutions will play a key part in any effort aimed at addressing poor air quality. No one department can pull this off. Perhaps we haven’t seen enough progress because the various stakeholders involved are not talking to each other.
Across countries, Pakistan is among the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are a clear indication of this.
The other major prerequisite is funding. On the domestic front, carbon, fuel, toll, congestion, and registration taxes are some examples to generate revenue for air quality control initiatives. On the international front, the government of Punjab should seek inspiration from the government of Sindh: pointedly, the 583.5 million USD zero emissions Bus Rapid Transit Project in Karachi that promises to reduce 2.6 million tonnes of CO2e emissions over 30 years. Sindh is leveraging carbon finance and paving the way for other similar projects in the country.
Across countries, Pakistan is among the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are a clear indication of this. This is mostly bad news except that it opens Pakistan up to money from climate investment funds, particularly to support climate mitigation and adaptation projects on its soil. Pakistan’s track record in securing these funds has been generally poor, but recent decarbonisation projects in Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa suggest that Punjab too could follow suit and potentially address poor air quality across the province.
Finally, air pollution is not an inconvenience. It’s a killer. It claims millions of lives every year - more than HIV, malaria and tuberculosis combined. The bulk of these deaths take place in the Global South. Given that these deaths are preventable, continued inaction is incomprehensible and virtually criminal.