That means that anybody residing in the state, be it an employee, student or labourer or defence officer, will have voting rights. The move has raised further apprehensions that the Indian government was bent to turn the local Muslim majority population into a political minority. It is believed that about 2.5 million additional voters will be added to the voters’ list.
Recently an informal group of eminent citizens led by former Chief Justice of Delhi and Madras High Court Ajit Prakash Shah and former Home Secretary Gopal Krishan Pillai said that the exercise of the Delimitation Commission, through the process of gerrymandering, cracking and packing of assembly segments was aimed to give advantage to a particular political party. Since the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is apprehensive that a majority of Kashmiri Muslims will not vote for it, it is trying every bit to prevent local mainstream political parties, like the National Conference (NC), People’s Democratic Party (PDP) or Peoples’ Conference to gain majority in the assembly.
In its annual report, the Forum for Human Rights in Jammu and Kashmir, entitled Three Years As A Union Territory: Human Rights In Jammu And Kashmir, the eminent citizens, including former judges, bureaucrats and military officers said the delimitation commission has given 47 seats to Kashmir and 43 to Jammu. This means that a population of 56.12 percent in Kashmir has been allocated 52.2 per cent seats, while the Jammu division with a population of 43.84 percent has been given a share of 47.77 percent. Kashmir division has a population of over 68.88 lakh, roughly 51 percent and Jammu over 53.78 lakh, around 39 percent.
“In the long-term there is a concern that the commission’s relocation will turn the Kashmiri Muslims from actual majority to a political minority,” cites the report.
The report further states that with the newly-drawn boundaries, “A supportive administration in the Union Territory would bring it closer than ever before to Delhi. It would also bring numerous new avenues for the centre to bring its long-term vision for the region to fruition. These moves are a part of designs to slowly shift the centre of political power from Kashmir to Jammu, which is seen as more sympathetic to the present dispensation’s interest.”
The report further states that in this act of gerrymandering, the tactics of ‘cracking and packing’ have been tactfully put to use. With the delimitation, the government has not only succeeded in splitting the opposition’s vote base among multiple constituencies but in some cases has agglomerated the opposition parties' votes into one constituency, thereby increasing the ruling party’s chance of winning in the surrounding constituencies.
For the BJP, which aspires to form the government in Jammu and Kashmir, these new assembly boundaries are going to provide electoral gain. And with the Election Commission's announcement of allowing outsiders to vote, the BJP is going to get an advantage over the rest. “There is going to be an increase of about 30-35 percent votes in Kashmir, which is going to change the electoral dynamics of the state. And such changes are always an advantage for the bigger parties and in this case, the BJP will get an advantage over regional players,” explains Professor Sanjay Kumar of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies.
“In the long-term there is a concern that the commission’s relocation will turn the Kashmiri Muslims from actual majority to a political minority,” cites the report.
Three years after the suspension of the electoral democracy and the Centre imposing its rule over the people through the governor, the redrawing of the electoral boundaries and now adding 25 lakh new voters to the rolls, a fair election looks like a far-fetched dream.
Mockery Of Elected Representatives
In 2018, a year before Kashmir was snapped off its special status, the elected government was pulled down. The government of India in October 2019 notified elections for all the three-tiers in the state. However three years on, the state continues to run without any public representatives.
Kashmir had its first Block Development Council (BDC) elections in October 2019. This election was held at the time when Kashmir was under a complete lockdown after it had lost its statehood and its political representatives were under detention.
The elected BDC members have been under constant radar of the militants and are forced to live away from their elected turf under strict police protection. Four BDC members were shot by the militant groups in March and April this year. “Panchayat officers have been at the receiving end of the militants, as they are presumed to be belonging to the Indian camp,” cites the report. As a result, these elected representatives are camping in hotels and hostels at Srinagar, far away from their homes and voters.
To provide security to 3000 panchayat members, the centre would need at least one lakh security personnel. As a result, these elected members are forced to live in prison cell-type accommodation, where they are not allowed to meet their voters and families.
Increase In Killings
Last month, Union Home Minister Amit Shah said at an event that Jammu and Kashmir administration has been able to achieve a decisive upper hand over terrorism in the state. But its ministry’s data suggests otherwise. According to the latest official data, since January 2019, at least 690 militants have been killed across Jammu and Kashmir. During the same period, records show that 149 security personnel and 57 Jammu and Kashmir police personnel lost their lives. At present, police records show that 129 active militants are present in the region.
The expert forum has raised questions about the government’s statistics that do not take into account the increased incidents of militancy spreading from South Kashmir to other districts of the Kashmir and Chenab valleys and Rajouri and Poonch districts, where militancy had almost fully disappeared in 2000s.
“Kashmir has been suffering for years and instead of making efforts to calm the nerves, the government is only adding to the wounds of Kashmiris,” said AVM (Retd) Kapil Kak. He is a member of the forum.
Violation Of Human Rights
In 2019, when the statehood was withdrawn from Kashmir, the union government imposed a ban on internet services for months. People of the valley were denied basic human rights like the right to work and livelihood.
The coup in the Kashmir Press Club a few months back, which led to the closure of the club, was the only place for journalists' solidarity in Kashmir. Not only has that roof been taken away from the valley journalists, but they have been under constant watch and pressure from the state agencies for doing their job. Any piece of news that upsets the government can lead to serious consequences for the journalist.
The report also takes a strong view on the arrests of journalists who continue to languish in prisons.
“Statehood and elections are linked to each other. Till the time the centre is convinced that elections are going to go in its favour, no decision on the dates of elections is going to take place. For now, I see no light at the end of the tunnel,” says Kak.
Kashmiri Pandits And Making Of Film, The Kashmir Files
After the Nadigarm massacre of 2003, Kashmir had not witnessed any targeted killing of the Kashmiri pandits. But 18 years later in 2021, Makhan Lal Bindroo, who runs a medical shop in Srinagar, was shot dead by militants, since then these attacks have been taking place at frequent intervals.
Tall claims that the Narendra Modi government has been making about peace in Kashmir have fallen flat time and again. Despite appeals and efforts by the government to make Kashmir inviting for people, it has failed in all aspects.
AVM Kak adds, “Only Dr Manmohan Singh made some genuine efforts when he looked at creating workplaces and habitats. Of the 6000 houses that were to be constructed, the Modi government has done only 17 percent of work in the past eight years. The whole purpose of the scheme gets defeated. No new initiative has been taken by the government to rehabilitate the pandits back.”
Kak who is a Kashmiri himself adds that it is not just the homeland that the pandits have been deprived of. It is also their culture, music and art that have been compromised by their migration.
And movies like The Kashmir Files being promoted by the government have done more harm than good for Kashmiris living in the valley. The report highlights the fact that the movie vilifies and de-legitimises the majority of Muslims and describes them as barbaric and jihadis, and tells only one side of the story.
Kashmiri pandits living in the valley have raised their concern over the government's interest in promoting this film, which, besides presenting one side of the story, also makes the pandits vulnerable -- both in Kashmir and outside.
When the film was released in the cinema in March, even members of Kashmiri Pandit Sangharsh Samiti (KPSS) criticised the filmmakers for wrongly picturising true incidents. The film wrongly labelled all Kashmiri Muslims as jihadis. Sanjay Tickoo of the KPSS expressed that films like these could endanger the security situation of pandits. His fear now seems to be coming true.
The Way Ahead
The matter challenging the dilution of Article 370 is yet to be taken up by the Supreme Court of India. AVM Kak who is a petitioner in the matter feels that going by the constitutional provisions, it will be impossible for the government to justify its position of breaking a state into union territories. He further argues that in the absence of the Constitutional Assembly of Jammu and Kashmir, Article 370 cannot be abrogated.
The elections that have been due in the state for more than four years do not seem to be taking place any time soon. While the Election Commission has announced that it is working on a war footing to prepare the electoral rolls and make other poll arrangements. Attempts are being made to turn the wheels in favour of the centre -- but Kak does not see any hope shortly, “Statehood and elections are linked to each other. Till the time the centre is convinced that elections are going to go in its favour, no decision on the dates of elections is going to take place. For now, I see no light at the end of the tunnel.”