On the political front, there is a huge disconnect between the constitutional and real sources of power generation, power accumulation, power exercise, and power distribution. What I mean by this is that powers allocated by the constitution to positions and offices such as the prime minister, the executive branch, the judicial branch, and the legislative branch cannot be exercised due to a variety of reasons. In a democratic culture, the legislative branch should be deemed supreme and should be controlling the coffers whereas the executive should be exercising powers delegated to it by the legislature. The role of judiciary must be limited only to the provision of justice through a transparent system based on equality, fairness, and access.
Unfortunately, the constitution of Pakistan neither provides a clear-cut realm of influence for the three government branches nor mentions any controlling mechanisms to block inter-branch intervention.
Most importantly, the sources of power in politics of Pakistan reside outside of the constitution, thus making the subverting of the constitution a norm and flouting its provisions an expression of political manoeuvrability.
Political actors have consistently failed to chalk out rules of the game. Since there is no compatibility between the constitutional provisions mentioning the delegation of power and the ground political realities, the office bearers always seek support from real but extra-constitutional sources to stabilise their control over power.
The constitution of Pakistan neither provides a clear-cut realm of influence for the three government branches nor mentions any controlling mechanisms to block inter-branch intervention.
On economic front, Pakistan faces the grimmest prospects in coming future. In the hierarchy of capitalist global order, the peripheral countries are meant to produce raw material whereas the semi-peripheral countries provide support services to let the core countries engine global economy. Unfortunately, Pakistan is a misfit between a semi-periphery and a periphery. Its burgeoning population is hungrier, and its raw material production is declining, due to shrinking agricultural land, decreasing water storage capacity, and multifaceted climate crisis. Its large-scale manufacturing, industrial production, and exportability are either in stalemate or progressing at a speed much slower than desired. Pakistan faces a chronic trade deficit problem due to which economic growth cannot be achieved.
Most of Pakistan’s economic issues are of its own making. The so-called ‘mines’ of Pakistan’s economy include circular debt, most importantly, the independent power producing plants, the terms and conditions of which have reportedly deprived the national exchequer of billions of rupees.
Pakistan’s currency is consistently devaluing, stock market is crashing, inflation is increasing, and food security is becoming a mounting challenge. According to a recent news report, the circular debt of the energy sector is rising at the rate of about Rs129 billion per year despite consistent increase in energy prices. At the moment, total circular debt of Pakistan has crossed Rs4,167 billion.
On social front, Pakistan’s issues are quite complicated. Income inequality is widening across gender and geographic and ethnic lines. People living under poverty line have increased due to Covid-19 and floods. Poverty coupled with inflation correlates with social, moral, and financial corruption, negating merit and promoting nepotism. Unemployment rate is increasing. Rapid cultural transformation, accelerated by social media and information revolution, is engulfing the whole society.
About 35 million children of school going age are growing up without formal education and skills training. Countless others are studying in substandard educational institutions. With over 65 percent population under 35 years, industrialization and economic prosperity is a Herculean task. Terrorism is on the rise and causing newer complications in the country’s national security policy and foreign relations.
In such circumstances, an electoral victory by the PTI will not resolve problems of the country. Even after gaining a comfortable majority in the National Assembly, the PTI and Imran Khan will have to work with a military establishment eager to control powers, and a judiciary eager to clip valid executive authority. The executive prerogatives, driven from the parliamentary majority gained through a democratic process, are subjected to non-democratic scrutiny.
An ambitious Imran Khan and a determined PTI will create friction with the institutions. Any attempt to gain control over foreign and domestic policies will be met with resistance by benefactors of the status quo.
Any electoral engineering to limit the PTI’s power will invite disruption on roads. Every political development in Pakistan during the last 20 years has resulted in a new and bigger wave of brain drain in Pakistan. It will only accelerate if political instability continues. Therefore, the new elections will bring a new wave of restlessness in the country.
Pakistan is in dire need of widespread structural reforms. It needs to restructure its domestic economic policies to reduce budget deficit, to reduce financing burden of the federal government, and to support economic development. At the moment, Pakistan imports almost everything ranging from grains to energy to automobile. It does not have sufficient industrial and technological base to promote and sustain exportability on competitive grounds.
The PTI, even when and if it wins elections, will not be able to muscle enough power to resolve all outstanding challenges faced by the state of Pakistan. The elections will only invite a new wave of political unrest.
The writer is a Lecturer at Bush School of Government & Public Service, Texas A&M University, USA. He can be approached at slashari@tamu.edu