The Russian Federation has now built up troops along the border with Ukraine -- a move that has been perceived as an act of aggression by western democracies and the NATO allies. It is feared that this confrontation could ignite the largest military conflict on the soil of Europe since the Second World War.
According to latest news reports, the Kremlin leaders are making full preparations for a full scale war. Military units are on the move, medical units are in place and even blood supplies are being stocked at the border. According to US President Joe Biden, the Russian Army has assembled over 150,000 troops near the Ukraine border and so far any diplomatic talks between Russia and the US have remained inconclusive. On February 15, Russia had hinted at pulling back, partially signalling the start of de-escalation by Vladimir Putin. But instead, the Russians have increased the number of their forces on the border. Joe Biden told the media that he is ‘convinced’ that Russia has decided to invade Ukraine in the near future.
Ukraine now appears to be a testing ground for Russia to reassert its influence in Europe and the world. This could be an effort to regain the power and glory of the USSR in the days of the cold war with the USA. It could also be an effort by the long reigning Russian President Vladimir Putin to cement his legacy. If the Russian leader decides to invade Ukraine, it could result in tens of thousands of deaths, a massive refugee crisis and tough sanctions imposed by the Western Democracies could also lead to a global economic disaster. The two major adversaries, Russia and the US, have drawn a line on the ground and are now in an eyeball to eyeball situation. Russia has presented to the US a list of demands, most of them not acceptable to the US and NATO members. Putin has said that NATO should stop its Eastward expansion and deny Ukraine membership. He also wants NATO to withdraw troops in countries that joined the alliance after 1997. As expected, both the US and NATO rejected these demands, calling these ultimatums a Russian attempt to secure interest in Ukraine and influence the security architecture in Europe.
The roots of this crisis lie deep in the past. After the collapse of the USSR in 1991, Ukraine emerged as an independent nation but continued to retain close ties with Russia. In 1994, Ukraine agreed to give up its nuclear arsenal and signed the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances on the condition that Russia, the UK and the US would issue an assurance against threats or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine.
Five years later, Russia was one of the signatories of the Charter for European Security where it "reaffirmed the inherent right of each and every participating State to be free to choose or change its security arrangements, including treaties of alliance, as they evolve".
Even as an independent country since 1991, as a former constituent republic of the USSR, Ukraine was perceived as a sphere of influence by the Russian leaders. Ukraine and Russia parted ways politically, linguistically and historically in 1991. Putin has always claimed that Russians and Ukrainians are ‘One People’ and part of the ‘Russian Civilization’, but Ukraine has rejected these claims. The country has been through two revolutions in 2005 and 2014 both times rejecting Russia’s supremacy and opting to join the European Union and NATO. Vladimir Putin has been really annoyed and enraged at the prospect of NATO bases on the borders of Russia and believes that the membership of NATO for Ukraine would mean crossing of the redline.
Apart from differences pertaining to ideology and politics, Putin has always pushed for Ukraine’s membership in a Moscow-dominated free trade bloc launched in 2000. The Eurasian Economic Community or EAEC united several ex-soviet republics and was seen as an attempt for the rebirth of the USSR. With a population of 43 million and a growing agricultural and industrial economy, Ukraine was supposed to be the most vital part of EAEC after Russia but the country refused to join this act to the great annoyance of the Russian leaders – especially Putin.
Meanwhile, all is not well in Russia. Putin is fast losing his popularity after a long innings as the country's ruler. People are protesting vehemently the economic hardships caused by the pandemic. Putin was enjoying a ratings of almost 90 per cent after the Crimea annexation and now a new war or escalation of tensions may distract the public from domestic problems and boost his popularity. Therefore, this could be a deliberate ploy employed by Putin for his political survival. Putin desperately wants to restore dialogue with the West, specially the US -- and amassing an army on the borders of Ukraine has worked for him.
When tens of thousands of troops were deployed near Ukraine in June, Putin got his first face to face meeting with President Joe Biden. The two presidents held a two hour video conference on December 7. Biden had threatened Putin with tougher economic sanctions and reposition of NATO troops in Europe.