The way elections were postponed beyond the ninety days constitutional limit and the uncertainty was created around whether the elections will be held or not, it was obvious that had the Chief Justice Supreme Court of Pakistan, Justice Qazi Faez Isa not declared February 8 as the final, non-negotiable date, the powers that matter had no intention of holding the elections of the national and provincial assemblies in Pakistan. Then, the manner in which elections were held almost all political parties except PML-N are protesting against the rigging in elections. Interestingly, after the elections, routine life in Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Sindh was brought to a standstill by protesters, while Punjab remained largely open and quiet. Whereas, instances of electoral fraud were relatively more prominent in Punjab, where every effort was made to hand the PTI backed independent candidates a loss.
From the election results announced by the Election Commission, formation of the government in three provinces Sindh, KP and Punjab is very clear now. Sindh and KP has given a clear mandate to PPP and PTI respectively, whereas in Punjab PML-N apparently has managed the simple majority with the support of the independents. In Balochistan, PPP, PML-N and JUI-F are three contenders for the Chief Minister slot.
However, the situation in the center is most complex and worrisome for those who would want to see democracy prosper in Pakistan. This time, as per the Election Commission’s published results, it is such a hung parliament that no political party is willing to form a government in the center. This result surely suits the powers that matter, but will this bring much needed political stability without which there are little chances of the revival of the economy?
Apparently, a PML-N led minority coalition government with the support of PPP is most probable at the moment. As the PPP chairman, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari has declared his party will support the PML-N led coalition in the center, but they will not accept ministries. On the other hand, according to some media reports, even within the PML-N, Nawaz Sharif himself and some other stalwarts do not want to form a government in the center and the leader of the single largest party in parliament, PTI, Imran Khan has instructed his party not to negotiate with PPP, PML-N or MQM, and take up the opposition benches instead.
This time, as per the Election Commission’s published results, it is such a hung parliament that no political party is willing to form a government in the center.
Therefore, we cannot rule out the chances of a complete deadlock over this and a probability of the re-election, in case no government at the federal level can be formed. Even if a government is formed, it will be a very weak minority government and could fall anytime. Pakistan can ill afford this political chaos at a time when the economy is in doldrums and talks with IMF are due once again in March.
In such a situation, the only thing that can save Pakistan is reconciliation and open dialogue among all stakeholders. The complaints of electoral fraud and problems in the formation of government are merely a symptom, the real problem is the complete absence of the rules of the game, which could be accepted by all stakeholders and implemented in true letter and spirit. What has happened at the political and judicial front in the last five years tells us that whatever the Constitution says does not matter in Pakistan. Nothing goes by the book in Pakistan. The power equation matters the most and all critical decisions are made following the dictates of the power equation. The manner in which former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was sentenced by the Supreme Court of Pakistan in 2017 and then was exonerated from all cases on his return in 2023 says it all.
Therefore, mere constitutional arrangements are not a solution anymore, Pakistan needs a new social contract which is acceptable to all the stakeholders and implemented in true letter and spirit. Does this mean we need a Charter of Democracy and a Charter of Economy, which different politicians including Shahbaz Sharif, Bilawal and Zardari are talking about? Yes - reconciliation among all political parties and an agreement on a Charter of Democracy and a Charter of Economy is very important for the future of Pakistan.
But will this resolve issues forever, and will it lead to a cessation of derailments and institutional interference in pure political affairs? The answer is no, because this will merely take back Pakistan to the situation when the original Charter of Democracy was signed in 2006. If the Charter of Democracy 1.0 could not resolve this quagmire, then chances are that the Charter of Democracy 2.0 might also not work.
The simple answer is that the institutions which constitute the real power centers in Pakistan were not part of the Charter of Democracy, and they were not happy with the arrangements made under the charter, the 18th Amendment and the 7th NFC award.
Before embarking on another Charter signing parade, democratic forces must analyze what has happened after the Charter of Democracy, which has brought the nation to this situation. The Charter of Democracy helped Pakistan with a comparatively smooth democratic transition in 2013, but things started getting worse as institutional interference in political affairs kept increasing with time. Why did this happen?
The simple answer is that the institutions which constitute the real power centers in Pakistan were not part of the Charter of Democracy, and they were not happy with the arrangements made under the charter, the 18th Amendment and the 7th NFC award. Therefore, they started playing their own games and the things went out of control when the third force, which was created by the institutions, went against the institutions. I fear that if another Charter of Democracy is signed only among political forces, it might result in a repeat of the same cycle once again.
There is no hidden secret that the judiciary and the military establishment are the two institutions which interfere in political affairs, therefore, without making them part of the reconciliation, the nation’s political will not settle down permanently. The rules of the game need to be settled with a consensus among all stakeholders.
At the moment, there is a clear conflict of interest over power sharing between the judiciary, the military and the political executive, which includes the parliament. Apparently, the judiciary and the military establishment is not happy with the power sharing provided for by the Constitution. They may never say that openly, but this is why they do not abide by the limits the Constitution and parliament places on their role.
I am not sure how exactly the judiciary and the military establishment can be taken onboard on a new Charter of Democracy, but their agreement over the ultimate outcome will be crucial for its success. Maybe all political forces, including the PTI should at first sit together and agree on drawing new rules of the game, and then only can a mechanism be framed to include the representatives of the military and judiciary as well.