In light of a growing understanding on rivers, the lower riparian country, in this case Pakistan, might benefit in certain aspects, if a new treaty is agreed upon between India and Pakistan. Although that might be a challenge, as has been pointed out by Rafay Alam, who is an environmental lawyer. “In the current situation with groundwater data availability, conjunctive water use of groundwater and surface water, with social and economic dependence on the current irrigation system, it might be next to impossible to come to an agreement with India on any new treaty.”
The most crucial piece of development in the international law on transboundary water management has been the convention on the law of non-navigational uses of international water courses adopted by the United Nations in 1997, which was enforced on August 17, 2014. The core principle of the convention is equitable and reasonable utilization and the no-harm rule for shared water courses. The principle essentially creates an obligation on states sharing water courses to enjoy equal rights, and to not deprive each other of the benefits of water. The involved states are obliged to ensure that no significant harm is caused to transboundary rivers that are being shared.
The convention takes into account the environmental damage that may be a result from an activity on the river course. Pakistan is definitely suffering from environmental damage to its ecosystem. Seawater intrusion, the declining mangrove forests of the Indus Delta and threat to wildlife are just some of the environmental issues arising due to reduced flows.
Climate change is a reality and amply reflects that we are under direct threat and are struggling for our survival. Pakistan is among the countries most threatened by climate change. The change in the rate of glacial melts in the Himalayas is bound to bring fluctuations in the flow of the Indus River. The UN convention again states that any agreement on transboundary waters should take into consideration the mitigation strategy and adaptation for climate change impacts on river flows.
India, being the upper riparian in the river system, has limited interest in ensuring the benefits and sustainability for Pakistan. However, it has certain humanitarian obligations, as a member of the international community. The recent statements by India that it will cut off the water supplies to Pakistan is debatable. The humanitarian crisis that could be the outcome of such blockages in Pakistan will immediately create a backlash for India from the international community. A publication by LEAD Pakistan on harnessing the benefits of transboundary water in the Indus Basin suggests sharing the benefits, instead of water sharing. Hence, Pakistan can incentivize India. Promoting water markets and water trading is one of the ways to aim for cooperation. Dr Hassan Abbas, a water expert at LEAD Pakistan is of the view that, “Taking heed of the global mind on sustainability, emerging technologies, benefit-sharing approaches, and demand management in the irrigation sector (with a potential to save 90% of water) will liberate us from the current paradigm of water shortages leading to conflicts.”
A revision in the treaty, with due consideration to climate change, environmental impact and ecology, needs to be made with a focus on benefit-sharing according to which both states can stand to gain.
Recent developments
The Indo-Pak situation on transboundary water resources has worsened with the recent rise in tension between India and Pakistan. The looming threat of armed conflict afflicting millions of people of the two countries, has somewhat subsided yet the media war continues unabated, along with the unending representation of each country’s stance at the national and international fora. The conflict took a new turn when India threatened Pakistan with abrogating the Indus Water Treaty.
The treaty has weathered three wars and numerous disputes raised by Pakistan on India’s non-compliance with the terms of the treaty. India stopped water flowing into Pakistan on April 1, 1948. An inter-dominion accord signed on May 4, 1948, provided a temporary solution to the water crisis, as negotiations between the two countries were carried out for a more permanent solution. However, the inability of the two countries to resolve their dispute led to intervention by the World Bank. The World Bank proposed that the three Western rivers (Indus, Jhelum and Chenab) should be given to Pakistan with rights to India for irrigation and power generation with certain limitations, and the Eastern rivers (Ravi, Sutlej, and Beas) should be given to India in their entirety. The treaty was finally signed by Pakistan and India on September 19, 1960.
The writer is a focal person on transboundary water with LEAD Pakistan on the Indus Water Treaty