The United States became one of the first countries to recognise Pakistan on the 14th of August 1947. President Harry S Truman sent a congratulatory message to Mohammed Ali Jinnah and called Jinnah “the originator of the dream that became Pakistan.” Formal diplomatic relations were established the next day on 15 August 1947. It has now been almost 78 years since the US established diplomatic relations with Pakistan, but this entire period has been a sort of rollercoaster ride in terms of bilateral relations. Today we stand on the brink of a new era in the Pak-US relationship.
On the 20th of January, Donald Trump was again sworn in as the 47th President of the USA to begin his second term in office. Trump happens to be the first President in history to be convicted on three dozen charges of felony, but he has been fairly and squarely elected by the people of the USA and has been saved from any jail time – and now he will enjoy immunity during his second term in office as the President. This time, Donald Trump has complete control over the Senate and Congress, making him perhaps the most powerful president in recent US history. It appears that now he will implement his rather controversial right-wing agenda and fulfil his election promises. He could begin by blanket support to Israel, deportation of Asian immigrants and abrogating the climate-control policy along with strong support for the mega-rich tech tycoons of the country.
Throughout history, the relationship between Pakistan and the United States can best be described as a bittersweet and turbulent story full of periods of close cooperation and discordant disputes. It starts from 1954, when Pakistan accepted the membership of SEATO and CENTO and allowed the establishment of a US airbase near Peshawar. Pakistan offered blanket cooperation to the US after the 1979 Soviet military intervention in Afghanistan, and the war against the Soviet occupation was fought with Pakistan acting as the frontline state. The honeymoon period ended when sanctions were imposed on Pakistan after the nuclear tests conducted by Pakistan in 1998.
Pakistan is no longer dependent on US military technology or arms supplies, but the Pakistan-China defence cooperation is a cause of concern and insecurity for the incoming Trump administration
Relations were revived after the 9/11 attacks and Pakistan once again became the darling of the American policy planners as their closest ally in the war on terror. Now as we enter a new period. In this current turbulent phase, the US appears to be targeting the missile program of Pakistan. For the first time in our history, the US has placed a total ban on some Pakistani government-owned companies involved in our missile program. The first priority of any US government is the safety of its own citizens. And now, acting on the fanatic campaign of Jon Finer, a renowned hater of Pakistan, the Pakistani nuclear program is being described a grave threat to the US. Finer does not explain as to how on earth can a Pakistani program located more than 10,000 miles from the US be reasonably perceived as a threat to the American mainland. In the last two great wars of the 20th century, not a single shot was fired in the American mainland unless we count the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor on the 7th of December 1941. Since that era, to thwart any perceived opponents, the US adopts strong measures like sanctions or even military action if needed – as was the case with Iraq in 2003. Like Britain of the colonial period, the US now reinforces its key role as a global law enforcer.
For its part, Pakistan is no longer dependent on US military technology or arms supplies, but the Pakistan-China defence cooperation is a cause of concern and insecurity for the incoming Trump administration. Today, Pakistan stands with the top ten missile development program countries of the world, and is now well placed to defend itself against all threats from neighbouring countries. Trump’s policy to contain China in the South China Sea will be the major reason for putting pressure on Pakistan. Donald Trump will do his best to establish a strong military presence in the Indo-Pacific region to dilute the Chinese influence. The USA already has the largest US military camp in South Korea, and it has encircled China with military bases in the Pacific region, including in Japan. The members of the QUAD alliance are the USA, India, Japan and Australia - and China has marked this alliance as a very significant threat and security concern for the safety of the Chinese mainland. Trump's foreign policy is based on power through strength and he is likely to push the view that the US can only achieve peace through strength.
US presidents come and go and so the Trump presidency – however it unfolds for bilateral relations – will also end in due course. But the permanent threat to Pakistan in the US will always be the influential lobbyists who campaign against the country and its economic interests. These lobbyists are capable of changing and shaping US policies towards Pakistan.
Today, Pakistan-China cooperation and fraternal ties are seen as a treat to US interests in the region. The combined interests of the US, India and Israel will continue to put pressure on Pakistan in the coming days.
For their part, the cult-like followers of former PM Imran Khan are very hopeful that Trump will be able to get their leader released from prison. But they might well end up disappointed, because political developments in Pakistan are not nearly so important for Trump. He has not even mentioned Pakistan during his election campaign, and not once after his election victory. He has spoken about trade and restrictive tariffs on China. It is true that Richard Grenell, who is Trump’s special envoy for various assignments, has tweeted several times demanding the release of Imran Khan. But it is yet to be seen as to what power Grenell wields in the Trump administration, when it comes to causing any real change in US policies towards Pakistan.
It is also likely that under a Trump administration, the Pentagon will continue to work as usual with the Pakistani military. Of course, the nature of that relationship may have changed somewhat in recent years, especially with the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan. However, with a Taliban government firmly in place in Kabul, the US-Pakistan relationship will likely continue to have a strong security component.