The situation in the Middle East has been entangled since the disintegration of the Ottoman Empire after the First World War. The dominant powers including the UK and France, with the consent of Russia, decided to divide the Ottoman territories in the Middle East. They engaged two diplomats - Sir Mark Sykes and his French counterpart Francois Georges Picot to draw the political boundaries of the Middle Eastern countries. These arbitrary boundaries were determined by the Sykes-Picot Agreement of 1916.
These powers divided these territories as their protectorates. France took possession of Syria, Lebanon, and some parts of the modern Turkiye including Anatolia, while the UK took over Iraq, Trans Jordan, Palestine, Yemen (south), Bahrain, and some other Arab tribal territories, later transforming into Kuwait, and UAE. The North Yemen revived its Mutawakkil (Zaidi) Kingdom in 1918 (earlier it existed as Imamat from 798 AD, and was abolished in 1598 by Ottomans).
In the former possessions of Ottoman Empire in the Middle East, the only sovereign territory was the kingdom of Abdul Aziz Ibn Saud which remained at loggers head with Ottomans. By 1930, he had already established his kingdom in a vast territory. The UK authorities had allowed him to occupy Hejaz and Medina expelling Faisal II and Abdullah, two brothers of Hashemite and Quresh lineage.
In 1921, the UK installed Faisal as the king of Iraq, while Abdullah was crowned as the sovereign of Trans Jordan. Free from the potential threat from the Hashemite brothers, Ibn Saud began consolidating the borders of the kingdom. A war broke out between Saudi and Zaidi Kingdoms in 1934 in which the North Yemen lost vast territories of Asir, Najran, and Jizan.
Ibn Saud had stood by the UK throughout the World Wars, and was backed by the latter in consolidating his kingdom. The UK signed an agreement with King Abdul Aziz in 1936 recognizing Saudi control over the new territories and assuring it of security. Yemen keeps revising its claim over these territories. The hostile Zaidi Kingdom was overthrown in a military coup in 1962. Zaidis pointed the finger to the Saudis. A civil strife ensued. South Yemen was freed in 1970 along with other Gulf territories. The Southern Yemen emerged as a nationalist and leftist state becoming more potential threat. This provides a backdrop to the historic conflict between Sauds and Zaidis
Peace and stability have always evaded the Middle East. The region, with its rich resources, has been found a fertile land for Arab nationalism, Marxism, dictatorship, autocracy, plutocracy, oligarchy, absolute monarchies, absolute emirates, intrigues, coups and countercoups. The establishment of Israel in the Palestinian lands was a coup de grace against the Arabs. King Abdul Aziz had warned President Roosevelt and Prime Minister Winston Churchill against the establishment of the Israeli state.
The USA can end the war with Iran by disciplining the Israeli leadership. Netanyahu exploited President Donald Trump in dragging him into the devastating war on Iran. He should abandon his quest for a fallacious victory; revive Islamabad MoU and make a deal with Iran ending the war forever.
The Arab countries have not recovered from the awe and fear of Israel’s military strength demonstrated by it in the wars from 1948 to 1973 with the determined support of the USA. The reverberations of these wars are still felt in the Arab capitals rocking Arabs’ ego, vanity and pride. We witnessed a growing Arabs’ eagerness to embrace Israel before the war on Iran. The Arab states’ mealy-mouthed condemnation of the massive killings in Gaza including children demonstrated their reluctance to confront Israel.
We are not going to have a new Middle East as consequence of the war on Iran. The war is stalemated with the warring countries holding their guns steadfastly. We have elaborated the strategic objectives Israel wants to achieve before agreeing to end the war. In another piece published by this paper I have explained that President Donald Trump joined the war at the behest of Netanyahu without any planning, war objectives, exit strategy and, probably, even without consultation with his Generals. Iran was attacked while it was engaged in talks with its adversaries.
The war between Saudi Arabia and Hoathis will also stalemate unless the former successfully puts in place a formidable coalition force to crush the militia. The paradox of this war is that the Hoathis are fighting amphibious and guerrilla warfare. It is difficult, if not impossible, to chase and confront them on land. They attack merchant ships passaging through the Red Sea, and Al-Mandib. There will be no quick end of the warfare. The conflict will be devastating for the global economy and regional peace and security.
The UN or the International Community is already tired of the unceasing conflicts, and military confrontations in the Middle East. The NATO/EU countries refused to be dragged in the war on Iran. They are equally least interested to take any initiative to establish peace and security in the Middle East notwithstanding the rich regional resources. It will be unrealistic to think of an international conference to address this complex situation because any such initiative would essentially have the Palestinian problem on its agenda which Israel would not accept.
China is also least interested in getting involved in this complex region taking sides, arguing with certain states and cajoling others to arrive at an acceptable agreement for peace and security thereby harming its interests. Russia could have jumped in the arena but it is bogged down in Ukraine. All this drives our gaze towards Iran and the USA. These are the two countries which can take the region out of the current messy situation created largely by the USA and its vessel state of Israel. Hence, the USA needs to have an active involvement in the peace making.
The USA can end the war with Iran by disciplining the Israeli leadership. Netanyahu exploited President Donald Trump in dragging him into the devastating war on Iran. He should abandon his quest for a fallacious victory; revive Islamabad MoU and make a deal with Iran ending the war forever with an express clause that Iran will have a peaceful co-existence with Israel and the Gulf States. Iran will apparently have no qualms to accept such a clause in the peace deal premised on non-interference in each other’s affairs and good neighborliness. Iran will have to take some confidence building measures to regain the trust of the Gulf States.
After such a deal, the USA will not need to have fortified military bases in the Gulf States that failed to provide security to the hosting countries. It can, at the most, thinking of fortifying its bases in Israel. For the interim phase, it can maintain the Fifth Fleet’s Headquarters in Bahrain, Al-Udeid airbase in Qatar, 5000 -10,000 troops in Kuwait, and access to bases in Oman and UAE. Such an initiative needs the intervention of a powerful state which, in the present scenario, is only the USA.