Its implementation depends on various factors that include the myriad of security threats and political challenges it faces, all of which have to be factored in for a holistic understanding of its potential. If CPEC materialises and the infrastructure is put in place with the promotion of SEZs, the Pakistani private sector could benefit substantially as a result of increased government spending. Specifically, investment activity surrounding CPEC could boost the demand for domestic goods as well as the demand for newer output sources and industries. This could mean well for Pakistan.
CPEC’s promise, as far as generating employment and developing much-needed infrastructure is concerned, is stability for Balochistan and potentially nullifying some of the underlying causes of Baloch insurgency. For their part, Baloch civil leaders have viewed CPEC with positivity, given the prospects of economic growth for Pakistan’s biggest, but most impoverished, province. Perspectives on the proposed route, however, have been much more pessimistic with members of the ruling coalition in the province being far more vociferous in their criticism of the projects, which are viewed as Punjab-centric and neglect Balochistan.
The Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline should be given a priority to integrate Iranian economic stakes in Gawadar
As of November 2016, the Gwadar Port in Balochistan has become fully operational and both China and Pakistan have managed to successfully establish sea and road links. This accomplishment is recognised by the ruling government and acts as proof that a portion of the western flank of the project, which runs through Balochistan, has been successfully completed.
Gwadar’s triumph notwithstanding, statements by various political parties such as the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) regarding CPEC’s routes and the policies of the central government signal a disturbing trend. Gwadar was envisioned to play the role of a ‘game-changer’ in CPEC. For the last 25 years, there has always been hype about the potential of Gwadar. Pakistan first promoted the idea of the port as a gateway for Central Asian countries in early 1990, and then in early 2000s when it was talked about as the next Dubai. Sadly, instead of all the hype, Gwadar has been unable to generate any kind of maintainable reward for the people of Balochistan. The port in Gwadar, despite the hype of the last 25 years, is still far behind the port of Karachi in terms of operations.
There will be seven special economic zones in Balochistan. These zones will be established after the completion of projects related to energy and infrastructure. At this point in time, it is not prudent to imply their potential benefits. The people of Balochistan along with other Pakistanis have to wait for at least a decade to benefit from these zones provided the energy and infrastructure projects prove successful.
For last 20 years, activities in realty sector in Gwadar have been peaking but the benefits have not affected the common people. The city of Gwadar still lacks the basic resource of water for its existing population. This implies such activities have no benefits for ordinary people.
Export of fruit is the area where people of Balochistan can benefit the most. The land is highly favourable for good crops of onion and garlic. Apples, grapes, dates, cherries, peaches and apricots present exceptional opportunities for export. With four agro-ecological zones, Balochistan is endowed with a unique environment for the production of a great variety of quality fruit.
A senior security officer thinks that the biggest challenge lies in correct understanding of CPEC by the people of Balochistan. He proposes that the people of Balochistan should be the biggest beneficiary and the feeling that others are exploiting their resources should be tackled. People of Gawadar and Balochistan should not feel alienated. He argues that Chahbahar may be regarded as a threat owing to its geography and capacity. Gawadar’s geography is much better placed and capacity-wise, there is no comparison of Chahbahar and Gawadar. However, the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline should be given a priority to integrate Iranian economic stakes in Gawadar. This will mitigate resistance from Iran. A comprehensive view of the physical security of the project will demand a peaceful and interdependent neighbourhood. Stable Afghanistan and an economically-integrated Iran will mitigate threats. India may be irreconcilable but we should work on Afghanistan and Iran. Economic security warrants that benefits of CPEC trickle down to the common man. Security of our national identity and ideology warrants we do not open all avenues for Chinese labour and skilled workers. Pakistanis should fill these slots. We should have stringent controls on owning of properties and businesses by the Chinese.
The writer is an assistant professor at the University of Balochistan