The year 2024 ended with a new frontier in the global tech race of quantum supremacy. The US and China announced ground-breaking advancements in quantum computing by developing Willow and Tianyan-504, respectively. As these tech rivals push the boundaries of quantum computing, the critical question arises: what new possibilities will this unlock for real-world applications of quantum computing, and what will be the implications for national security in the quantum-driven future?
In computing, speed is a critical benchmark that determines computational power. Currently, the fastest classical supercomputer processes and stores information using binary bits (0 or 1). In contrast, quantum computers are based on qubits that can exist in the superposition of states and can be 1 or 0 at the same time. This property enables quantum computers to run multidimensional quantum algorithms, accelerating their speed and defining their computational superiority over classical computers.
However, the dilemma of quantum computing is that by increasing the number of qubits for computational power there is also a corresponding rise in errors. The makers of the Willow chip claim that they have reduced this error rate with an increase in qubits, thus addressing the quantum computing dilemma. Additionally, Willow has demonstrated its superiority in random computer sampling (RCS), a test designed to prove that a quantum computer can perform computations better than any advanced classical computer. In this test, Willow surpassed the world’s fastest supercomputers by computing in less than five minutes which would have taken about ten septillion years to solve.
Similarly, Tianyan-504, China’s superconducting quantum computer, has set a new domestic record by surpassing the 500 qubits threshold (the number of qubits in a quantum computer). Additionally, it matches key metrics standards like qubit lifetime and readout fidelity, a yardstick to measure the reliability of a quantum system to read out the information stored in a qubit.
Pakistan can design a comprehensive quantum model, classifying areas in which quantum technology could augment various fields, including finance, manufacturing, and cryptography
Although these developments could lead to significant progress in quantum computing for real-world applications like financial modelling, machine learning, and manufacturing industries, however, they could also have implications for national security. For instance, the most significant threat from quantum computers to national security is their potential to decrypt current global encryption systems that protect military, financial, and governmental data. If any state achieves this decryption capability, it could gain access to highly classified information from other states, potentially disrupting their intelligence operations or financial transactions, thus compromising national security. In this regard, the US can use the Willow chip due to its error reduction capability and exceptional computational speed to develop a quantum computer that is capable of breaking standard encryption codes.
Considering this potential threat from quantum computers, China has already adopted a two-pronged strategy by making strategic investments for attaining quantum supremacy while pre-emptively securing its system from future quantum-driven cyber-attacks. For instance, in 2016, China launched its quantum communications satellite Micius to protect its communications. Moreover, it has created a 12000 km quantum communication network, leveraging quantum key distribution (QKD) to create theoretically unbreakable encryption. Currently, China could further upgrade Tianyan-504 to create advanced cryptographic systems to secure its classified communications. This shows the dual application of quantum encryption for offensive and defensive purposes.
The growing interest of other countries in quantum technology like Russia, the UK, and India also highlights its significance in a quantum-driven future. For instance, India’s heavy investment in the National Quantum Mission (NQM) reflects its growing investment towards developing a quantum-based cyber ecosystem. Additionally, Russia is also competing in this quantum race by launching its first 50-qubit quantum computer.
Keeping in mind the importance of this new technology, Pakistan too has taken the foundational initiative for R&D by establishing the National Centre for Quantum Computing (NCQ). However, considering the pace of global developments and the emerging threats associated with this technology, Pakistan needs a more proactive and strategic approach.
To begin with, Pakistan can design a comprehensive quantum model, classifying areas in which quantum technology could augment various fields, including finance, manufacturing, and cryptography. Additionally, the country can formulate a timeline with key end goals like developing more quantum research centres in public universities and commercial quantum technology zones for civil applications of quantum technology. National Aerospace Science and Technology Park (NASTP), a technology hub, can serve as the primary ecosystem for this R&D. Furthermore, Pakistan can also look into developing a national strategy that focuses on defensive military applications of quantum computing to secure its cyber landscape through quantum communication networks and quantum-resistant encryptions like US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) is currently doing.
To sum up, the fast-paced development of Willow and Tianyan-504 indicates the urgency with which states are developing quantum computers capable of decrypting current global encryption codes and developing cryptographic systems. Therefore, in this quantum-driven future, Pakistan needs to formulate a model that can not only focus on applications of quantum technology but also take pre-emptive measures to secure its classified data from quantum-based cyber-attacks.