The eight week long suspense over government formation in Kashmir is all set to end with the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) reaching an agreement to form an alliance. On the face of it, the only thing that is common between these two parties is “P”, but with consensus on a Common Minimum Programme (CMP), they seem to have created a space where they could move together in governing the state for the next six years.
As I write these lines, even the broad contours of the CMP are not known, and the only thing that the two parties confirm is that the talks are over and a formal announcement is the next thing to do. For BJP, the election results were a windfall, as it improved from 11 seats in the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly in 2008 to 25 in 2014. In 2002 it had just one MLA in the house. Its blitzkrieg of “Mission 44+” worked well to touch the highest ever mark of 25. So the next move was to be in the power structure as it was a now-or-never situation for the party that was in full command in Delhi. To be a power player in the only Muslim majority state is surely a dream coming true. Its ascendency in J&K was no different from what it did in rest of India in the 2014 general elections. Here too the communal polarization worked as a spinner in the game.
In contrast, the mandate in Kashmir valley was fractured. The commentariat in Kashmir concluded that the vote in the valley was to stop BJP’s entry into the power structure. It is a known fact that BJP never had a foothold in Kashmir and it tried all means to do that in the recent elections, but failed miserably by losing the security deposit in 33 out of 34 assembly segments. Nevertheless, its money game did fetch some results like the party candidate getting over 3,000 votes in Shopian and 2,500 in Hazratbal, the highest number so far, that too excluding Kashmiri Pandit migrants, who interestingly stayed away from polls apparently to shun the tag of being pro-BJP. The voting pattern in the valley was not overwhelming for a particular party, and so did not prove to be decisive. Whether BJP was really a factor merits a debate. If that would be the case, Sajjad Lone’s People’s Conference would not have registered a debut victory on two seats in Kupwara, since he shook hands with Prime Minister Narendra Modi much before the elections. It needs to be taken into consideration that the valley, despite a huge turnout, was divided and not decisive.
Now that PDP patron Mufti Mohammad Sayeed has gone ahead with an “unholy alliance” with BJP, it needs to be seen whether he can achieve his “agenda” or gets lost in the saffronised power. Mufti has taken this step ignoring the resentment that has mainly poured in within the Kashmir valley and through social media and the columns in newspapers. The biggest one was a three part commissioned article in a local newspaper that tore apart Mufti and his decision of joining the BJP. Those who met Mufti informally and formally also expressed apprehensions and reservations on facilitating an entry into power for a party that talks about such absurdities as Ghar Wapsi.
He still went ahead, giving enough time to people who wanted to express their concerns and also sent feelers that he would not compromise and was ready to sit outside the power structure. Surprisingly, he did not make development an agenda, but his game of nerves revolved round the political concessions. That would never have been the case in other state in India. From the demand of resumption of dialogue with Pakistan to keeping Article 370 off the table, withdrawing Armed Forces Special Powers Act, return of power projects, and other issues, he made a bid to give the bargain a political colour. Now that both parties have found a “common ground”, it remains to be seen who has mellowed down on the conditions.
Despite pressure from RSS, it may not be hard for BJP to accept the demands, that in any case are improving the conditions in Kashmir, but the way it won the elections exploiting West Pakistan refugee settlement and other such issues, its credibility among the voters is at stake.
All said and done, the real gamble is being made by Mufti and not the BJP. One argument that Mufti has repeated in a series of interviews given to some prominent Indian journalists (here he followed Omar Abdullah by choosing Delhi journalists over the local ones) is about taking Jammu along. He argues that he is conscious of the division that has become “official” after the election results and he wanted to reinvigorate regional integration. If that is the only reason, then what would be his takeaway for the Kashmiri population that has given him the mandate to rule?
A more important question is whether Mufti can trust Delhi in conceding to his demands. One thing is clear – when it comes to Kashmir, it is the establishment and not a political dispensation that has more weight, and in last 67 years the mindset of policy makers has not changed. Even if the assurances are written, the biggest test for Mufti would be to get them implemented in a time frame and prove Kashmiris wrong in saying that he sold out. Moreover, his oft repeated concern about Jammu’s isolation also needs to be seen in context. In the past, Kashmiris say, Muslim leaders had tried their best to win them over. Ghulam Nabi Azad did everything to appease the Hindus of Jammu during his tenure as Chief Minister, telling them he was first from the region to lead the government. He did many practical things to change the face of Jammu. But look at his humiliating defeat not only in the parliament election when he stood from Udhampur, but also the decimation he saw on his home turf in Chenab valley. When Farooq Abdullah came to power in 1996, he did the same thing. When it named the Tawi bridge after Sheikh Mohammad Abdullah, Jammu resented the move. Farooq’s government had to impose a virtual curfew to inaugurate it.
There are lessons for Mufti in this. He may be a shrewd and astute politician who knows his game well, but will Jammu trust him as an “Indian by conviction” (his own assertion)? Will they upset his government over petty issues? He knows well how Congress ministers turned his three years of rule (2003-05) into a nightmare. By placing the alliance mainly on concern for Jammu and for achieving political gains for Kashmir, Mufti is headed for a big political gamble. Will he tame Modi to achieve his goal, or get reduced to a political cannon used by Delhi? That remains to be seen in the years to come.
The writer is a veteran journalist and political commentator based in Srinagar
As I write these lines, even the broad contours of the CMP are not known, and the only thing that the two parties confirm is that the talks are over and a formal announcement is the next thing to do. For BJP, the election results were a windfall, as it improved from 11 seats in the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly in 2008 to 25 in 2014. In 2002 it had just one MLA in the house. Its blitzkrieg of “Mission 44+” worked well to touch the highest ever mark of 25. So the next move was to be in the power structure as it was a now-or-never situation for the party that was in full command in Delhi. To be a power player in the only Muslim majority state is surely a dream coming true. Its ascendency in J&K was no different from what it did in rest of India in the 2014 general elections. Here too the communal polarization worked as a spinner in the game.
In contrast, the mandate in Kashmir valley was fractured. The commentariat in Kashmir concluded that the vote in the valley was to stop BJP’s entry into the power structure. It is a known fact that BJP never had a foothold in Kashmir and it tried all means to do that in the recent elections, but failed miserably by losing the security deposit in 33 out of 34 assembly segments. Nevertheless, its money game did fetch some results like the party candidate getting over 3,000 votes in Shopian and 2,500 in Hazratbal, the highest number so far, that too excluding Kashmiri Pandit migrants, who interestingly stayed away from polls apparently to shun the tag of being pro-BJP. The voting pattern in the valley was not overwhelming for a particular party, and so did not prove to be decisive. Whether BJP was really a factor merits a debate. If that would be the case, Sajjad Lone’s People’s Conference would not have registered a debut victory on two seats in Kupwara, since he shook hands with Prime Minister Narendra Modi much before the elections. It needs to be taken into consideration that the valley, despite a huge turnout, was divided and not decisive.
Now that PDP patron Mufti Mohammad Sayeed has gone ahead with an “unholy alliance” with BJP, it needs to be seen whether he can achieve his “agenda” or gets lost in the saffronised power. Mufti has taken this step ignoring the resentment that has mainly poured in within the Kashmir valley and through social media and the columns in newspapers. The biggest one was a three part commissioned article in a local newspaper that tore apart Mufti and his decision of joining the BJP. Those who met Mufti informally and formally also expressed apprehensions and reservations on facilitating an entry into power for a party that talks about such absurdities as Ghar Wapsi.
He still went ahead, giving enough time to people who wanted to express their concerns and also sent feelers that he would not compromise and was ready to sit outside the power structure. Surprisingly, he did not make development an agenda, but his game of nerves revolved round the political concessions. That would never have been the case in other state in India. From the demand of resumption of dialogue with Pakistan to keeping Article 370 off the table, withdrawing Armed Forces Special Powers Act, return of power projects, and other issues, he made a bid to give the bargain a political colour. Now that both parties have found a “common ground”, it remains to be seen who has mellowed down on the conditions.
To be a power player in the only Muslim majority state is surely BJP's dream coming true
Despite pressure from RSS, it may not be hard for BJP to accept the demands, that in any case are improving the conditions in Kashmir, but the way it won the elections exploiting West Pakistan refugee settlement and other such issues, its credibility among the voters is at stake.
All said and done, the real gamble is being made by Mufti and not the BJP. One argument that Mufti has repeated in a series of interviews given to some prominent Indian journalists (here he followed Omar Abdullah by choosing Delhi journalists over the local ones) is about taking Jammu along. He argues that he is conscious of the division that has become “official” after the election results and he wanted to reinvigorate regional integration. If that is the only reason, then what would be his takeaway for the Kashmiri population that has given him the mandate to rule?
A more important question is whether Mufti can trust Delhi in conceding to his demands. One thing is clear – when it comes to Kashmir, it is the establishment and not a political dispensation that has more weight, and in last 67 years the mindset of policy makers has not changed. Even if the assurances are written, the biggest test for Mufti would be to get them implemented in a time frame and prove Kashmiris wrong in saying that he sold out. Moreover, his oft repeated concern about Jammu’s isolation also needs to be seen in context. In the past, Kashmiris say, Muslim leaders had tried their best to win them over. Ghulam Nabi Azad did everything to appease the Hindus of Jammu during his tenure as Chief Minister, telling them he was first from the region to lead the government. He did many practical things to change the face of Jammu. But look at his humiliating defeat not only in the parliament election when he stood from Udhampur, but also the decimation he saw on his home turf in Chenab valley. When Farooq Abdullah came to power in 1996, he did the same thing. When it named the Tawi bridge after Sheikh Mohammad Abdullah, Jammu resented the move. Farooq’s government had to impose a virtual curfew to inaugurate it.
There are lessons for Mufti in this. He may be a shrewd and astute politician who knows his game well, but will Jammu trust him as an “Indian by conviction” (his own assertion)? Will they upset his government over petty issues? He knows well how Congress ministers turned his three years of rule (2003-05) into a nightmare. By placing the alliance mainly on concern for Jammu and for achieving political gains for Kashmir, Mufti is headed for a big political gamble. Will he tame Modi to achieve his goal, or get reduced to a political cannon used by Delhi? That remains to be seen in the years to come.
The writer is a veteran journalist and political commentator based in Srinagar