Afghan President Ashraf Ghani’s recent appreciation of Pakistan’s role in peace efforts in Afghanistan was prompted by a message that Gen Raheel Sharif delivered to the Afghan government in his recent trip to Kabul. He told Ashraf Ghani that the Taliban were willing to begin negotiations as early as March, analysts say.
Pakistani intelligence officials say that the renewed push for negotiations appeared to be driven by the improving relationship between Afghanistan and Pakistan which has long been marred by mistrust.
“The eagerness shown by Pakistan to facilitate the Afghan government in its talks with the Taliban is rooted in its own concerns about cross border terrorism which it can’t address without the Afghan government’s support,” a senior official in Islamabad said. He said Afghanistan’s handing over of key Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) commander Latif Mehsud to Pakistan and the recent a military operation against the TTP in Kunar and Nuristan provinces, jointly conducted by the Afghan National Army and US troops, has helped the three countries come closer on core issue of terrorism. “Pakistan was suspected for years and years for being close to the Taliban because of its concerns about the increasing Indian influence in Afghanistan,” he said. But according to him, Ashraf Ghani has sought to improve ties between Kabul and Islamabad and delayed his visit to India for that purpose. His government has recently put on hold the request of purchasing Indian weapons in order to maintain a balanced relationship with Pakistan. “The recent arrival of Afghan cadets who will get trained alongside Pakistani cadets shows that President Ghani has put aside the foreign policy which was pursued by Mr Karzai and this renewed spirit originating from Afghan camp will be duly reciprocated by Pakistan,” the official said.
"An Afghan Taliban delegation has been to China twice"
He said that role of China would be of utmost importance in this build up to peace talks as Taliban need a strong guarantor to make sure the US keeps its promises.
According to Senator Mushahid Hussain Syed, Chairman of the Pakistan-China Institute, “China has excellent credentials to play the role of an honest broker because it has no extra baggage of wrong policies of the past.” He said such a role was acceptable to all primary actors, including the US. “An Afghan Taliban delegation has been to China twice,” he revealed, “once before President Ghani’s visit to Beijing and once after it. During the visit, President Ghani requested Chinese authorities to play a proactive role in the peace and stability of the region and it is no coincidence that the Chinese foreign minister announced during his recent visit to Pakistan that china will facilitate the Afghan peace process.” He said the move signals a coordination between China and Pakistan on the Afghanistan peace process.
Analysts say it wouldn’t be a smooth going for the rival camps in Afghanistan. There are forces present in each camp resisting any future patch up. “Taliban are divided on the question of peace talks with the US and Afghan government,” said Mushtaq Yousafzai, a Peshawar based journalist. “The political wing of Afghan Taliban is in favor of finding a peaceful solution to the Afghan question, but the militant wing is strongly against any such rapprochement.” According to Yousafzai, the main push for talks as far as the Taliban are concerned is coming from the families of those commanders who are still under trial in various jails of Pakistan, Afghanistan or in the high security prison of Guantanamo Bay.
Afghan President Ashraf Ghani speaks to reporters during his November trip to China
Two rounds of talks between designated Taliban leaders and US officials have already taken place in Qatar, he said. “During the talks, the Afghan Taliban were offered the governorships of Uruzgan, Helmand and Kandahar provinces, as well as two ministries – Frontier and Rural Development, and Hajj and Religious Affairs,” Yousafzai said. The Afghan government and the US support Wakil Ahmed Muttawakil and Mulla Zaeef as candidates for these ministries, he added, but the Taliban have refused the offer.
Senator Arifullah Pashtoon, the chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee of the Afghan Senate confirmed the resumption of the Qatar Peace process. He said the Taliban leadership had not rejected their demands, but were bargaining for a better deal. He added that the Taliban are frustrated with the war and were quite aware of the public opinion and ground realities going against them. “The chances of a breakthrough in talks are high this time,” he said, “as the narrative regarding Taliban has changed.” They are no longer seen as enemies but as a political reality that needs to be made part of the state building process. “This change has actually made the Taliban review their rigid stance of not talking to the Afghan government directly,” he said. According to the senator, the enthusiasm found in the opposing camps is unprecedented, and will ultimately enable them to cross all the hurdles.
The writer is an Islamabad-based researcher working on militancy in Pakistan and Afghanistan
