The more things change, the more they stay the same (plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose) -- French Proverb
Much has been written about Pakistan’s resilience in the face of crisis. It has lurched from crisis to crisis for decades and managed to pull out of all of them except what beset it in 1971. The crisis that it faces today may be just as severe.
The results of the general elections that were held on February 8 are being disputed not just by those who admire Imran Khan but also by many who were critical of his tenure as prime minister. The elections have also been viewed with suspicion in much of the western media.
Yes, as Prime Minister Imran failed to deliver on the grandiose promises he had made during his election campaign in 2018 and would probably have not won a second term. By dismissing him prematurely via the time-honored practice of a vote of no confidence, the establishment tossed him a ball which Imran hit for a six.
After his dismissal, he was reenergized. He began holding rallies around the country, talking about the conspirators who had dismissed him and asking the people to rise in a peaceful protest with him. He began calling for new elections and at some point, he began engaging in his usual grandstanding, saying that only he could bring genuine democracy to the country.
In The Tempest, one of Shakespeare’s characters utters the famous line: “What’s past is prologue.” That tempers our enthusiasm for Pakistan’s achievement of genuine democracy.
He railed against the establishment day and night. Even during the month of fasting, his late night rallies drew massive, overflow crowds. Women and children, young and old men, they were all there. He also appeared on major media outlets around the world, especially in the UK and the US.
The establishment panicked and arrested him on not just one trivial charge but on several trumped-up counts. The courts handed him one long prison sentence after another. His party was banned and his top leaders were either arrested or decided suddenly to quit politics. That failed to quelch the rebellion.
Many of his party members decided to contest the election as independents. Collectively, they went on to win the largest number of seats in the February 8 elections. Imran Khan delivered a speech generated by AI in which he said if the votes would have not been tampered with, his party’s candidates would have won two-thirds of the seats.
Since the PTI independents did not win a majority of the seats, the establishment was able to cobble together a coalition government comprised of the parties that had won the second and third largest number of seats. The coalition bore an eerie resemblance to the coalition that was created after Imran’s dismissal.
Pakistan’s founder, M. A. Jinnah, had envisaged Pakistan as a secular democratic republic. But 76 years have come and gone and Jinnah’s dream has not been realized. In The Tempest, one of Shakespeare’s characters utters the famous line: “What’s past is prologue.” That tempers our enthusiasm for Pakistan’s achievement of genuine democracy.
Yet, the dream lives on in the hearts and minds of the country’s youth who are not as enamored of the establishment as the older generation. They are the major force behind Imran’s popularity. Given that context, one can imagine three political futures for Pakistan.
Future One: The Praetorian State
Of these three futures, the most likely is Future One, more of the same.
This will be Shakespeare’s “past is prologue” future. Elections will be held but the results will be manufactured. No party will be allowed to win a majority. Weak coalitions will be formed and will do the bidding of the establishment, routinely uttering platitudes such as “the army and the government are on the same page.” The military will continue to dictate the politics and the economics of the country, as it has done since General Ayub’s coup of October 27, 1958, when Pakistan was turned into a Praetorian State. Ironically, Ayub dubbed that date as Revolution Day and it was observed as such for years.
Future Two: Jinnah’s Dream is Realized
The praetorian state encounters large scale resistance from the people of Pakistan. They resent the perpetuation of the status quo. Mass protests break out across the country, and not just in the large towns and cities but also in the villages and the rural areas.
As Future One is taking shape, the praetorian state encounters large scale resistance from the people of Pakistan. They resent the perpetuation of the status quo. Mass protests break out across the country, and not just in the large towns and cities but also in the villages and the rural areas. Section 144 and then curfews are imposed in the major cities. In a state of panic, the army declares an emergency and says it will shoot protestors who come out on the streets. But the ever increasing crowds are not deterred. Then something happens that’s never happened before. A group of officers in the three branches of service realize that the politics of the country has gone rancid. It needs to change. They remove the top brass and declare an end to military rule. In due course of time, free and fair elections are held. The winning party then goes on to create a civilian government. Jinnah’s dream is finally realized.
Future Three: Anarchy
This is a pessimistic variant of Future Two. Anarchy breaks out in all major cities as the crowds keep on violating the curfew and the emergency ordinances. There is a total breakdown of law and order. Sensing an opportunity, the criminal element in society resorts to looting and pillage. The military steps in to put an end to the riots and restore law and order. It also arrests all major political leaders and has them incarcerated. But none of these actions lead to stability. To divert attention, the military decides to play the patriotic card. It attacks Indian positions in Kashmir. India responds with full fury across the international border and an all-out war breaks out between the two nuclear armed adversaries.
Of these three futures, the most likely is Future One, more of the same. There is a small probability that Future Two may come to pass. Future Three probably has the lowest probability of occurrence but it cannot be ruled out.